Will ChatGPT's prediction about the next pope come true? Speculations begin after Pope Francis' passing

Economic Times

23-04-2025

AP
Following Pope Francis' death at 88, the Catholic Church begins the secretive Conclave to elect his successor. AI tool ChatGPT predicts Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the front-runner, citing his diplomatic experience and role as Vatican Secretary of State.
In a historic twist that blends ancient ritual with modern tech, the Roman Catholic Church finds itself at a remarkable crossroads. Following the passing of Pope Francis at the age of 88, the sacred process of electing a new spiritual leader is underway — but with an unprecedented twist. For the first time in its 2,000-year history, the papal conclave has been pre-empted by artificial intelligence.
As cardinals from around the world converge on Vatican City for the secretive conclave — a centuries-old process conducted in utter seclusion behind locked doors — artificial intelligence has already cast its vote. And it's betting on Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the seasoned Vatican Secretary of State, as the most likely successor to Pope Francis.
The conclave, derived from the Latin term cum clave meaning "with key," will see 135 cardinals under the age of 80 locked inside the Sistine Chapel, cut off entirely from the outside world. Their sacred mission: to elect the next pope by a two-thirds majority vote. No smartphones, no whispers from the web — only centuries of tradition, prayer, and ballots cast in silence.
But while the cardinals deliberate, AI is already ahead. According to a report from MailOnline , OpenAI's ChatGPT — trained on vast swathes of ecclesiastical history, betting odds, and current affairs — forecasts that Parolin, a 70-year-old Italian diplomat-priest, stands as the frontrunner. Not only does he lead prediction markets like Polymarket with a 37% chance, but he's also viewed as the continuity candidate, able to bridge reformist and conservative factions alike. Cardinal Parolin's resume reads like a blueprint for papal succession. Having served as the Vatican's top diplomat since 2013, he is Pope Francis' right-hand man in many respects. Fluent in several languages and well-versed in navigating delicate geopolitical tensions — including the controversial 2018 Vatican-China agreement — he's both respected and pragmatic.
But Parolin is not without criticism. His conservative stance, such as describing Ireland's 2015 vote to legalize same-sex marriage as "a defeat for humanity," may alienate some progressive electors. Yet in conclave dynamics, where no clear frontrunner often prevails outright, it is precisely such moderation and compromise that makes him a viable candidate.
While Parolin leads the odds, the race is far from settled. His closest rival, 67-year-old Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle — often dubbed "the Asian Francis" — remains a compelling contender. Known for his charisma, compassion, and cross-cultural appeal, Tagle could become the first Asian pope in Church history. AI analysis even acknowledges the razor-thin margin between Parolin's 37% and Tagle's 32%. Other names in contention include Ghana's Peter Turkson, who would be the first Black pope, and Hungary's Peter Erdo, a conservative favorite. Yet, as ChatGPT warns, conclave politics are notoriously unpredictable, often hinging on shifts in sentiment and strategic withdrawals.
— VaticanNews (@VaticanNews)
As the cardinals settle in, anticipation builds globally. Each day, up to four ballots may be cast. If no candidate reaches the necessary two-thirds majority, black smoke will rise from the chimney above the Sistine Chapel. Only when white smoke appears will the world know that a new pontiff has been chosen.
The longest conclave ever lasted nearly three years in the 13th century, though recent elections have been swift. In 2013, Pope Francis was elected within two days. Once a consensus is reached, the chosen cardinal will accept — if he chooses to — and take on a papal name, donning the white vestments before stepping onto the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica to greet a waiting world.
While AI can analyze data, parse history, and calculate odds, it cannot predict divine inspiration. And yet, its inclusion in this momentous chapter signals a fascinating intersection of faith and futurism. Whether it's Pietro Parolin or another papabile who emerges as the next Holy Father, one thing is certain: the smoke may be white, but in 2025, it's tinged with a digital glow.