Gaza: Israeli military expands ground operation into city of Deir al-Balah
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'Enough was enough': Why France is now taking a stand on Palestinian statehood
France and Saudi Arabia are co-chairing a high-level summit at the United Nations this week in a bid to generate momentum for international recognition of a Palestinian state. More than 100 countries are attending the three-day meeting in New York, from July 28-30. Israel, which opposes the two-state solution, is boycotting the summit, which has also been described by the United States as "counterproductive". The talks follow an announcement made by French President Emmanuel Macron last Thursday that France will formally recognise the state of Palestine in September, during the United Nations General Assembly. The meeting was postponed from late June and downgraded from a four-day meeting of world leaders amid surging tensions in the Middle East, including the 12-day Israel-Iran war, and the war in Gaza. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said Monday that 'this must be a turning point and a transformational juncture for the implementation of the two-state solution". "We must work on the ways and means to go from the end of the war in Gaza to the end of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," he told delegates. In 1947, the United Nations approved a resolution to partition Palestine – then under British mandate – into separate Jewish and Arab states. Israel was declared the following year. For decades, most UN member states have long supported the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. But after more than 21 months of war in Gaza, the rapid expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and public statements by Israeli leaders rejecting Palestinian sovereignty, fears have grown that a viable Palestinian state may be slipping out of reach. Barrot warned it would be an "illusion to think that you can get to a lasting ceasefire without having an outline of what's going to happen in Gaza after the end of the war and having a political horizon". 06:24 A diplomatic U-turn The move marks a significant shift for France, whose policy has walked a diplomatic tightrope since the October 2023 Hamas-led attacks in Israel. At the time, Macron travelled to Israel and pledged 'unconditional' support for the country, even calling for an international coalition to eradicate Hamas – a stance that surprised even Israeli officials. Last November, France refused to act on the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant, both accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. (A similar warrant was issued for Mohammed Deif, the leader of Hamas's armed wing, whom Israel claims to have killed on July 13, 2024.) The shift began during Macron's return from Egypt in early April. Speaking aboard the presidential plane, Macron announced that France would recognise the state of Palestine 'in the coming months'. At the time, the French presidency and the foreign ministry outlined conditions for recognition, including the demilitarisation of Hamas, the release of Israeli hostages and the reform of the Palestinian Authority. From precondition to demand Critics have pointed out that none of these conditions have been fully met. Despite being significantly weakened by Israel's military campaign, Hamas still controls Gaza and holds 49 hostages, 27 of whom the Israeli army has declared dead. Now, Macron continues to call for the "demilitarisation" of Hamas but no longer makes it a prerequisite for recognition, according to Adel Bakawan, an associate researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, honorary president of the Institute for Research and Studies on the Mediterranean and the Middle East (iReMMO), said France had "boxed itself in" by making demands it had "no ability to enforce". Still, the disarmament of Hamas remains central to the discussion, he added. In a letter to Macron in early June, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas pledged that any future Palestinian government would exclude Hamas. But France's diplomatic balancing act is playing out amid heightened global tensions since the Hamas attacks of October 7. A growing number of countries from the Global South have voiced frustration at what they see as double standards from Western powers: harsh condemnation of Russia's war in Ukraine and silence over Israel's actions in Gaza. Starving Gaza, shifting lines In 2024, three Western European countries – Norway, Spain and Ireland – officially recognised the Palestinian state, joining dozens of others across the continent. Today, more than 140 of the UN's 193 member states recognise Palestinian statehood. According to Bakawan, Macron's pivot represents a "reassessment" of French diplomacy in light of its recent shortcomings. Paris is now trying to align itself more clearly with the "Global South". The humanitarian crisis in Gaza – and in particular, the growing threat of famine – appears to have been a turning point for Paris. In late July, images of starving children circulated widely on social media and in global media outlets. Amnesty International on Saturday accused Israel of using starvation as a weapon of war, which the NGO said constitutes a war crime. Amnesty called on France to 'move from words to action'. That tipping point extended beyond humanitarian circles. Even US President Donald Trump — a staunch ally of Israel — said on Monday he saw signs of "real famine" in Gaza. For France, that may have marked a breaking point. "It created a sense that enough was enough," Chagnollaud said. According to Gaza's health ministry, more than 60,000 people have been killed in the territory since October 2023. Macron's gamble Still, France's decision also appears driven by strategic calculations. According to Bakawan, the war in Gaza remains locked in a stalemate between three actors – Israel, Hamas and the United States – none of whom, he said, are currently seeking an end to the conflict. Trump, who has positioned himself as a would-be mediator, has floated a plan to relocate Gaza's population to third countries. In this context, Macron saw an opening to 'offer another perspective, a political way forward', Bakawan added. If Paris follows through in September, it would become the first G7 country to officially recognise the state of Palestine. Whether such a diplomatic gesture can help bring peace to the Middle East remains to be seen. 'It's an important step,' said Chagnollaud. 'When a major power like France says the only path to a just and lasting peace is through international law, that carries weight.'
