March Madness: Troy vs. Kentucky odds, picks and predictions

USA Today

20-03-2025

The 14th-seeded Troy Trojans (23-10) and third-seeded Kentucky Wildcats (22-11) meet in an NCAA Tournament first-round game in the Midwest Region Friday. Tip-off from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Troy vs. Kentucky odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Troy is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017 after an impressive season in the Sun Belt. The team finished 13-5 in conference play, earning a share of first place in a 4-way tie. Riding a 6-game win streak, Troy capped off its run by defeating the Arkansas State Red Wolves 94-81 in the Sun Belt Tournament final March to secure an automatic bid to the Big Dance. Senior guard Tayton Conerway leads Trojans in points (14.3), assists (4.8) and steals (2.9) per game. The program is 0-2 in NCAA Tournament history — it's first trip was in 2003.
Kentucky — No. 21 in the USA TODAY Sports Men's Basketball Coaches Poll — returns to the NCAA Tournament for the fourth straight season, marking its first appearance under coach Mark Pope. The Wildcats finished 10-8 in SEC play, landing in a 3-way tie for sixth place. The Wildcats went 1-1 in the SEC Tournament, falling to Alabama 99-70 in the semifinals March 14. Junior guard Otega Oweh leads the team in scoring at 16.2 PPG. Despite its storied history, Kentucky has not advanced past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2019.
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Troy vs. Kentucky odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 5:48 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML) : Troy +525 (bet $100 to win $525) | Kentucky -750 (bet $750 to win $100)
: Troy +525 (bet $100 to win $525) | Kentucky -750 (bet $750 to win $100) Against the spread (ATS) : Troy +11.5 (-110) | Kentucky -11.5 (-110)
: Troy +11.5 (-110) | Kentucky -11.5 (-110) Over/Under (O/U): 152.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Troy vs. Kentucky picks and predictions
Prediction
Kentucky 92, Troy 65
PASS.
No interest in the moneyline at these odds, I'll take my wager to the spread.
BET KENTUCKY -11.5 (-110).
If I'm Kentucky, I'd feel disrespected by these odds.
The other 3 seeds — Wisconsin, Texas Tech and Iowa State — are/were laying at least 14.5 points in their first-round games. Wisconsin was favored by 17 against Montana, Texas Tech was -15.5 vs. UNC-Wilmington and Iowa State is a 14-point favorite vs. Lipscomb. But Kentucky is only an 11.5-point favorite? That makes it seem like the sportsbooks see the Wildcats as the most vulnerable among the 3 seeds.
The Wildcats have been up and down this season. They can take down a top-tier team like Florida one night and then lose to a middle-of-the-pack Texas squad the next. But there's no denying how much talent they have. They're the fourth-highest scoring team in the country at 85.3 points per game (PPG) with 6 guys averaging double figures. G Koby Brea is deadly from 3-point range, knocking down 43.9%, which ranks ninth nationally.
Troy has a solid defense, holding opponents to 65.4 PPG, but when it faced tougher competition, it struggled — Oregon dropped 82 on Troy earlier this season. The Trojans offense isn't built to keep up either, ranking sixth in the Sun Belt at 73.9 PPG.
Kentucky should take control and run away with this one.
BET OVER 152.5 (-105).
Troy's offense has been rolling, averaging 79.2 PPG during its 6-game win streak heading into the NCAA Tournament. That surge has led to the Over hitting in 6 of its last 7 games.
Kentucky's scoring ability is well known, with the Wildcats putting up 90 or more points in 12 games this season. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Wildcats' last 5 outings.
With both teams trending toward high-scoring affairs, I like this game to go OVER 152.5 (-105).
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