Uncertainty marks Michigan's future as economists estimate tariffs could cost the state 13,000 jobs

Yahoo

16-05-2025

Michigan State Treasurer Rachael Eubanks listens to presentations during the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 16, 2025 | Photo: Anna Liz Nichols
Michigan could lose 13,000 jobs in the next several years due to President Donald Trump's tariffs on foreign goods, economists from University of Michigan told state officials during a meeting Friday focused on projecting Michigan's economic future.
As the state Legislature is in the process of crafting the next state budget, economists from the University of Michigan and other experts presented research and estimations Friday on the trajectory of the national and state economies, looking at the potential impacts of federal tariffs, unemployment rates and tax revenue in order to inform lawmakers' decisions in the budget-making process.
As the Trump administration proceeds with implementing high tariffs on imports in order to encourage consumption of domestic goods, and other countries threaten retaliatory tariffs, Yinuo Zhang and Gabriel Ehrlich of the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics, or RSQE out of the University of Michigan, told state budget officials that Michigan is likely to be dramatically impacted.
With much of the Trump administration's actions varying day-to-day, Ehrlich said job loss estimates due to tariffs are 'very uncertain', but as things stand now, Michigan could lose 13,000 jobs as a result of tariffs on the automotive industry as manufacturing costs increase and many of the vehicles Michigan produces see a $6,200 average increase in prices.
'Uncertainty' is the word of the day State Treasurer Rachael Eubanks said in reviewing the presentations that were given
'We are not an island. There are real and serious implications to federal trade and tax policy actions that are impacting each state uniquely,' Eubanks said. 'So, we are monitoring the latest federal development continuously, which sometimes seems to change on the hour, and it can be challenging to keep up with the latest developments when you're in the business of forecasting the revenues in the economy.'
Additionally, the result of the meeting of budget leaders of the Legislature and state called the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference, or CREC, was that lawmakers will have less funds to work with than previously estimated in the January CREC meeting.
The consensus was with state revenues on the decline, lawmakers will have about $320 million less to appropriate in the 2025-26 fiscal budget.
Analysts project modest 2025 economic growth in Michigan, while state and school revenues are up
Tensions around formulating a state budget are already high in the partisanly split state Legislature as communication between leaders of the Republican-majority House and the Democratic-majority Senate remains minimal while Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks (D-Grand Rapids) sues House Speaker Matt Hall (R-Richland Twp.) over Hall's refusal to send bills leftover from the previous session to the governor's desk for approval.
Since the current legislative session began in January, following two years of bicameral Democratic control of the Legislature, lawmakers have only gotten two bills signed into law to retain tipped wages in Michigan and implement new sick time requirements.
Earlier this week Michigan Senate Democrats passed their nearly $84.6 billion proposal for the state's Fiscal Year 2026 budget, surpassing Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's proposed $83.5 billion proposed budget.
The Senate plan, which is part of the negotiation between the House and governor in order to create a state budget, invests in schools, public safety and infrastructure, a news release from Senate Democrats Wednesday asserts.
'Our budget puts Michigan families first — plain and simple,' Sen. Sarah Anthony (D-Lansing), Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee said in the news release. 'It's a reflection of what we've heard from residents across the state: they want good schools, safe communities, access to health care, and real opportunities to build a better life.'
The House is still working out the details of its plans, but following CREC on Friday, Michigan House Speaker Matt Hall (R-Richland Township) said in a news release budget negotiations are shaping up to be a battle for which Democrats are going to blame the Trump administration for their own thoughtless actions.
'The Senate's own fiscal analysts are saying the budget the Democrats passed just two days ago puts Michigan into a billion-dollar deficit. And they were so proud of rushing it through without thinking,' Hall said in the release. 'I've been telling you from the beginning that we're negotiating with unserious people. House Republicans are going to have to be the adults in the room once again.'
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