
Curtis Yarvin's Ideas Were Fringe. Now They're Coursing Through Trump's Washington.
Even the ball's name spoke to Yarvin's outsize influence over the Trumpian right: For over a decade, Yarvin, an ex-computer programmer-turned-blogger, has argued that American democracy is irrevocably broken and ought to be replaced with a monarchy styled after a Silicon Valley tech start-up. According to Yarvin, the time has come to jettison existing democratic institutions and concentrate political power in a single 'chief executive' or 'dictator.' These ideas — which Yarvin calls 'neo-reaction' or 'the Dark Enlightenment' — were once confined to the fringes of the internet, but now, with Trump's reelection, they are finding a newly powerful audience in Washington.
When I called him up recently to talk about the second Trump administration, Yarvin told me that during his trip to Washington, he had exchanged friendly greetings with Vice President JD Vance — who has publicly cited his work — had lunch with Michael Anton, a senior member of Trump's State Department, and caught up with the 'revolutionary vanguard' of young conservatives who grew up reading his blogs and are now entering the new administration.
Yarvin is skeptical that Trump can actually carry out the type of regime change that he envisions, but he told me that there are signs the new administration is serious about concentrating power in the executive branch. We spoke before the Trump administration announced a sweeping freeze on federal aid programs, but he pointed to the coming fight over impoundment as a key test of the new administration's willingness to push the bounds of executive authority. And he detected a newfound confidence and aggressiveness in Trump's GOP.
'Every time the old Republicans wanted to do something, it was like the nebbish guy asking the hot prom queen out for a date — they were just terrified that they were going to ask and the answer is going to be 'no,'' he said. 'That attitude does not seem to be present here.'
The following has been edited for length and clarity.
You were in Washington during Trump's inauguration. How was the mood among the people that you spent time with?
The mood is really good. You're definitely dealing with a lot of people who have spent the last four or eight years thinking about why the first Trump administration basically did not achieve anything for its supporters as opposed to its lobbyists. I'm not talking to the high strategic command or whatever, but just my impression from my connections among low- and mid-level people is that they've figured some things out.
The first and most important thing they've figured out from a political standpoint is that the situation that Trump is in is a little like Duke Leto and Arrakis.
We're talking Dune here.
Yeah. There's a little bit of landing on the mostly enemy planet D.C. You're landing there, and one of the general assumptions of the controlled opposition — the old Republican establishment — is that this is not really a symmetric political system.
Instead of a left party and a right party, we have an inner party [a bipartisan elite] and an outer party [the anti-establishment insurgents]. This outer party is basically the party that exists to collect and market the votes of unfashionable America.
You're saying that the conservative elite in D.C. have become newly aware of themselves as a kind of vanguard of the outer party, and they're starting to act like one?
Basically, the deal when you're a Republican in office is that you get a certain number of things to show off to your constituency to prove that you're really Republican, but you're basically there to play ball and help the system work. But what Trump and his team have realized now is that the best defense is a good offense. He's not just doing these little things to scare people and to take home as a chit to his supporters. He's actually trying to move all of the levers of this machine that he can move.
From the neo-reactionary vantage point, what is the best-case scenario for a second Trump administration?
The way that I think metaphorically about the problem of what can be done with the powers of the presidency is untangling the Gordian knot. I often say, 'Look, D.C. is run by Congress, not by the president.' The president stands in front of it and waves his hands and watches the system go, but the real decisions are funding decisions, and those kinds of decisions are made by Congress or the agencies. Actually, if the White House didn't exist, America would still work.
Do you think that a second-term Trump can untie the Gordian knot?
I think that is the fundamental question. The answer is interesting, because what he's doing is not at all what I would do with an opportunity like this. But I think that what I would do is probably not possible.
What would you do?
I would cut the Gordian knot. For example, a straightforward way to cut the Gordian knot is to say, 'Look, the [Federal Reserve] is clearly under executive authority.' It's clearly not part of the legislative branch, it's clearly not part of the judicial branch, so it's clearly part of the executive branch. And because the Fed actually controls the monetary system, I can order it to mint the trillion-dollar coin, or more to the point, I can basically order the Fed to buy assets. And because I can order the Fed to buy assets, I can order the Fed to buy notes issued by new institutions.
That allows me to basically come face to face with two very clear facts. One is that the U.S. doesn't really have an executive branch — it has a legislative branch, and it has an administrative branch, which is basically managed not by a monarchical president, but by an oligarchical Congress.
The second fact is that, when I look at any part of the federal government as a start-up guy, and I say, 'OK, first, let's take for granted that this is trying to solve [a real] problem,' for almost anything that you can look at, the right way to fix that organization is just to stand up a new one.
There are some parts of the U.S. government that have a very clear role and are not politicized in any way. If the president had the exclusive executive power over the Coast Guard, would the right choice be to create a new Coast Guard or to reuse the existing Coast Guard? I'm going to [reuse] the Coast Guard. But when I get to something like the State Department, I'm no longer anywhere near assured of that.
Why do you think Trump is unwilling to do what you're suggesting here?
I think he's unready. I think that America is unready for that level of change.
I want to get your read on the divide that seems to be opening up between the tech right and the populist-nationalist right, or what you've called the 'rationalists' and the 'traditionalists.' How real do you think this divide is, and what do you think is underlying it at a sort of fundamental level?
I came up with this sort of Tolkien-esque classification of the social forces in America today, and I identify two kinds of people.
Ah yes, the elves.
Yes. There are the elves — the blue state, [professional managerial class], ruling-class people — and the hobbits, the ruled-over lower-middle-class. The fear among elves that the hobbits will organize and come and kill them with pitchforks — because there's a lot of goddamn hobbits — has driven a lot of things in the 20th century.
But what happens when you have a group of people who are elves either by education or by background — because, of course, we have this remarkable system called 'college' for promoting people in the elf aristocracy — is that you have a certain set of people who, like me, are dark elves who dissent from the [progressive] Obama worldview, right? They don't believe in the state religion anymore.
So there's a conflict there [between the dark elves and the hobbits], definitely, but whenever you see a conflict, you should want to heal a conflict, right? I think that where that conflict comes from is that you'll go to something like the Passage Press party, and I'm there, and Steve Bannon is there — who apparently feels like it's appropriate to go to a black-tie event looking like a homeless dude.
You're apparently on his enemies list now.
Am I on his enemies list? I don't know.
Do you see Steve Bannon as an enemy?
No, no, my God. I mean, I've never met or talked to him. I don't see him as an enemy. Why would he be an enemy? I mean, it's a little funny to be talking about someone whose revenues come from Seinfeld. But Bannon has a kind organic connection with MAGA world. He has an organic connection with the great American hobbit. He really loved those people, and there's something sort of right about that.
The way the relationship between the dark elf and the hobbits should work is [based on the understanding] that [the hobbits] have been pouring their energy and their hope and their fear for decades into shit that doesn't work.
Do you think this tension within the MAGA coalition can be managed, or is one side going to have to win?
It's entirely able to be managed. What Trump is showing in his effort to sort of reactivate all of these incredibly rusty, broken levers of the top-down control of the New Deal, is just like, 'Wow, the president can do this.' The president can cancel the 1965 affirmative action executive order and nobody questions that legally he can just do that. Imagine if you'd suggested that in a meeting of the Bush administration. You would be on the next plane out. So what I think that the MAGA people are going to see is that shit is happening.
You've said that your relationship with Vance has been overstated by the press. What is your relationship with him?
I've interacted with Vance once since the election. I bumped into him at a party. He said, 'Yarvin, you reactionary fascist.' I was like, 'Thank you, Mr. Vice President, and I'm glad I didn't stop you from getting elected.'
He said that to you?
That's what he said. I don't think he meant it in a bad way, but I don't think he meant it in a good way, either.
Do you guys talk regularly?
No, no, definitely not. And I think that's not really the important relationship. [The New Right] is still a vanguard, which means it's still fundamentally oligarchical in a lot of ways. I don't need to name names, but there's a guy in D.C. who has a big house which a lot of the revolutionary vanguard hangs out in.
Are we talking about Peter Thiel? Who are we talking about?
No, no, no, this is someone you've never heard of.
Who is it?
I can't tell you. He's not in government. He's a lawyer. But this is a tradition that goes way back in D.C., with the House of Truth — where Oliver Wendell Holmes and John Hay and those guys hung out [during the Progressive Era]. Always, in a town like [D.C.], you'll have this vibe of a society of young, smart people. When you're at this place, maybe you'll run into a Clarence Thomas clerk or someone like that. There's this whole world of people in their 20s and 30s who are basically arriving to take jobs in D.C. now. And a lot of these dark elf-y people are hanging out in various places. Not that many of these people are not Christians — many of them are Christians, of course, but they're more likely to be like TradCaths than cradle Catholics, right?
The important thing is the vibe among the staff and the staffers. You have a bunch of people coming to Washington who don't have this traditional fear of the old establishment.
Let's go back to the Gordian knot analogy: I'm like, 'OK, cut the Gordian knot. Where's the sword?' But we're not quite ready for that, so what they're actually doing is they're pulling on the Gordian knot.
When you talk about tugging at the Gordian knot, you're saying they're taking incremental steps toward a type of systematic political change — a revolution, for lack of a better word.
Yeah, I'm talking about — America just has a really shitty government and needs a new government.
Do you think Vance is better suited than Trump for that type of work, by virtue of his background and intellectual orientation?
That's a good question. I think they're going to be an amazing team, because basically, in almost every way, JD is perfect. One of the perfect things about him is that he has this deeply American background, and then he was just completely re-socialized into the American elite. It's like, the Marines taught him how to hold a fork or whatever, and then he's graduated from Yale Law School, and he knows exactly how to eat at the right banquets. He's more comfortable with elite liberal Americans than Trump will ever be, and Trump just doesn't care.
There's an old blog post of mine from 2011 where I talk about kingship and the vibe of being a king, and I'm basically like, the guy in America who has this vibe is Donald Trump — and this is well before there was any serious talk of him having a political career, if I can pat myself on the back for that. Trump has this incredible energy — he's the guy who Ali G's bullshit doesn't work on. Cutting through bullshit is his strength.
What is Vance's strength in that matrix?
JD is more analytical. He's much younger, so he has more IQ points left. As you get older, you feel your IQ points going away, but they get replaced by wisdom.
And he has more of an appetite to pull on the strings of the knot?
JD has a lot of honor — honor goes very, very, very deep, in JD. I don't think he would ever be satisfied with being a grifter. What's so terrible about the outer-party Republicans is that people get into it, and they don't want to be grifters, and then they find that they are grifters.
I think even with a professional mercantile class, you can say to them at a certain point, 'Wouldn't it be easier to just be a dark elf?' Think about the elf career track. There's a cursus honorum — a standard path that you follow. If you want to work in government, you go to Harvard, then you go to D.C. to be an intern; you're opening people's mail, you climb your way up the staff after 10 years; you don't write legislation exactly, but you influence the direction of the legislation, et cetera. It's a really hard thing. And then here these guys and girls who by virtue of reading Curtis Yarvin in middle school are getting jobs more easily, because the ratio of people to jobs is a lot smaller.
I [recently] had lunch with Mike Anton at a coffee shop across the street from the State Department —
Michael Anton, incoming senior State Department official, for the record.
Yes, incoming senior State Department official. And I was like, 'Here's this academic position that they can fill, has anyone thought about filling this position?' And they're like, 'I don't think so.' And I'm like, 'What about this guy?' And they're like, 'Oh, he'd be perfect.' And then, you know, bam, bam, bam, it's done.
They took your staffing recommendations, is what you're saying?
Well, we'll see — but the path is easier. The path from, 'I'm a maverick dark elf' to 'I have a position with this administration' is just suddenly like, 'Whoa — there is a lot less competition.'
There's a debate over the scope of your influence in Washington, so I wonder how you measure your own influence, and how you think it compares now to four or eight years ago?
It has obviously increased since four years ago, but how I measure my influence is that I try not to. For the first six years when I was blogging, from 2007 to 2014, I barely talked to anyone about this stuff, and then I started to get letters from Washington being like, 'Wow, it seems like you're talking about the same Washington that I work in, and nobody ever talks about it.' All this stuff about the civil service, the deep state, the administrative state — there were academics who knew about it, but it was just not a part of the discourse.
Saying, 'Oh, I'm talking to the vice president daily,' or like, 'I got this guy this job' — that is just not my role as an intellectual. There are other people who are better at that. The way to fulfill your duty as an intellectual is to cast your bread upon the water — and actually, the more personal it gets, the worse it is.
In practice, a lot of your ideas point toward consolidating a significant amount of power in the executive branch. What would indicate to you that the Trump administration is serious about doing that?
There's no question that Donald Trump is completely serious and sincere about saying, 'I'm going to use all the power I have to make America great again.' I think he completely believes that. I don't think he wants to be a grifter in any way, shape or form. I think that the question is the limits of what can be done with that.
But what are the practical measures that you're looking for? Is it reviving impoundment authority or what?
Yeah, so look at Russ Vought at the Office of Management and Budget — another person whose hand I maybe shook once but who I haven't talked to. Impoundment is a perfect example of an issue where in the first Trump administration, the Office of Legal Counsel would have said, 'Oh, you can't do that — there's a law.' Well, is the law constitutional? I don't think the law is constitutional. I think the law is clearly a straight-up violation of the Constitution.
The courts are still a question here, and the idea that we control the court — I think anyone on the Supreme Court would resist that description, certainly the swing centrist bloc on the Supreme Court would resist it. Among his mistakes in his first term was that Trump basically appointed three centrists [to the Supreme Court] — so I don't know if Amy Coney Barrett is going say, 'Hey, let's revisit this birthright citizenship question.' But when it comes to the anti-impoundment act, it seems very plausible you could get that through the Supreme Court. And even if you can't, why not ask?
Every time the old Republicans wanted to do something, it was like the nebbish guy asking the hot prom queen out for a date — they were just terrified that they were going to ask and the answer is going to be 'no' and it's going be devastating. That attitude does not seem to be present here.
And if the courts say no, then what?
I think if the courts say no, you'll see more and more pressure put by the Trump administration on Congress. I think that as the machine gathers strength, victories have to build bigger victories. You win these small things, and then you're just like, 'Wow, we can actually do something bigger.' And before you know it, you're writing bills in the White House and sending them to Congress to be rubber-stamped.
Should they defy the court if that's not on the table?
That is a question that depends very much on circumstances.
Under what circumstances should they do it?
I think it has to feel right. If you're going to defy the court, it has to feel unifying above all. If you're going to say, 'Hey, you know what? Marbury v. Madison was wrongly decided, the Constitution actually does not specify the precedence of the branches, judicial review was just this invented thing,' it has to be the right moment. If you're doing that in a situation where the vibe is like, 'This is going to be the first shot in the civil war between red America and blue America' — if you're doing that as part of a divisive path where you have an opposition — I think it's bad.
For example: I think they corrected this a little bit, but you know when at the start of the campaign, the Trump team didn't really know what JD was going to be used for, and they tried to use him a little bit like Sarah Palin 2.0? I was like, 'Oh my god, this is terrible.' The thing that JD can do that's amazing is he can go and talk to the New Yorker and he can sit down with the liberal media and basically be like, 'No, get these caricatures out of your head. This is not Hitler 2.0. We're not here to send you to Guantanamo. You can actually get behind what's happening here even if you went to Harvard.'
Have you articulated this point of view to him?
Um — he knows it's what I think.
You said you talked to him once since the election?
I texted him once about a small issue, and then I shook hands with him at a party, because it's really important to shake hands with dignitaries.
But he knows that your point of view is that he can serve as a kind of unifier to sell what would otherwise be divisive issues to a broad swath of the American public?
Yes, and specifically to the American ruling class.
Is he on board with that?
I don't know. The thing is, when you talk to powerful people, they should be getting to know you — you should not be getting to know them. I'm not a reporter.
Can you imagine a scenario in the next four years where an effort to defy a Supreme Court order would be unifying rather than divisive?
Let me think.
I realize it's a hypothetical.
It's hard to picture. I think it would have to come about in a situation in which Trump had done so much through the ordinary course of ripping handfuls out of the Gordian knot that things had visibly changed for people. Fix New York City. Fix San Francisco.
What the elves have to realize is that their paranoid Handmaid's Tale fantasy in which hobbits from Ohio establish a new Hobbit fundamentalist regime and their daughters are enslaved or something is not going to happen.
Is there a scenario in the next four years where the Republican political elite is able to achieve the type of regime change you're discussing?
I think it's very unlikely. I would say that you would have to draw a straight flush on that, or maybe a royal straight flush. But royal straight flushes have been heard of, right? Cards are very random things.
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The news, which was reported in Reuters, shows how the Trump administration are willing to use military force against Latin American drug cartels. Trump has placed pressure on Mexico to crack down on criminal organizations and end fentanyl trafficking. Another method that Trump is using is steep tariffs on goods. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Trump tariffs get seal of approval as S&P affirms credit rating S&P Global Ratings on Monday affirmed the US's AA+ long-term rating with a stable outlook, saying tariff revenues will help offset costs from President Trump's recent tax and spending bill. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. S&P Global Ratings on Monday affirmed the US's AA+ long-term rating with a stable outlook, saying tariff revenues will help offset costs from President Trump's recent tax and spending bill. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Brazil challenges legitimacy of US trade probe, urges dialogue Brazil has rejected a US trade investigation launched in July under section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which seeks to determine whether its trade and tariff policies unfairly restrict American businesses. In a formal response submitted Monday, Brazil dismissed the allegations and challenged the legitimacy of the probe. Reuters reports: Read more here. Brazil has rejected a US trade investigation launched in July under section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which seeks to determine whether its trade and tariff policies unfairly restrict American businesses. In a formal response submitted Monday, Brazil dismissed the allegations and challenged the legitimacy of the probe. Reuters reports: Read more here. Brazil deadlocked with US over 50% tariffs, finance minister says The Financial Times reports: Read more here. The Financial Times reports: Read more here. Nissan's Infiniti attempts 'product renaissance' to jump-start sales and blunt tariffs Nissan's (NSANY) Infiniti brand just unveiled its latest creation, the QX65 midsize crossover SUV, at Monterey Car Week. The launch is part of a product renaissance at the Japanese automaker, which has been plagued with other headaches, such as tariffs. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports from Carmel, Calif., that the QX65 will be built in the US, which Infiniti's US head, Tiago Castro, said was 'very important' to increase its US footprint. While Japan has a preliminary deal in place for 15% tariffs, cars imported from Canada and Mexico still have a 25% auto sector tariff tacked on. Signing a tariff deal with Japan is immensely helpful, as the QX80 SUV that's in demand is built in Japan. 'The customers are reacting very well, and we need to deliver the vehicle' and not stop, Castro said. Read more here. Nissan's (NSANY) Infiniti brand just unveiled its latest creation, the QX65 midsize crossover SUV, at Monterey Car Week. The launch is part of a product renaissance at the Japanese automaker, which has been plagued with other headaches, such as tariffs. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports from Carmel, Calif., that the QX65 will be built in the US, which Infiniti's US head, Tiago Castro, said was 'very important' to increase its US footprint. While Japan has a preliminary deal in place for 15% tariffs, cars imported from Canada and Mexico still have a 25% auto sector tariff tacked on. Signing a tariff deal with Japan is immensely helpful, as the QX80 SUV that's in demand is built in Japan. 'The customers are reacting very well, and we need to deliver the vehicle' and not stop, Castro said. Read more here. Germany says written EU-US trade deal requires lower car duties Germany said on Monday the US must first implement the agreed lower tariffs on European-made cars before a broader trade deal can be finalized. Reuters reports: Read more here. Germany said on Monday the US must first implement the agreed lower tariffs on European-made cars before a broader trade deal can be finalized. Reuters reports: Read more here. Fewer fake firs, higher prices: China tariff delay does little to save the holidays The holiday season is fast approaching and US shoppers will now face fewer choices for fake Christmas trees and decorations. The price of these items has also gone up due to tariffs on Chinese imports as retailers scale back orders. Reuters reports: Read more here. The holiday season is fast approaching and US shoppers will now face fewer choices for fake Christmas trees and decorations. The price of these items has also gone up due to tariffs on Chinese imports as retailers scale back orders. Reuters reports: Read more here. China ramps up rare earth exports after fright for global buyers Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. EU push to protect digital rules holds up trade statement with US The EU is pushing back against US efforts to challenge its digital rules as both sides work to finalize a delayed trade statement, the FT reported. Disputes over "non-tariff barriers," which Washington says include the EU's Digital Services Act, have stalled the announcement. The statement was expected soon after European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and President Trump unveiled a tariff deal in Scotland on July 27. EU officials said the US wants room for concession on the act, but Brussels has called the rules a red line. The FT reports: Read more here. The EU is pushing back against US efforts to challenge its digital rules as both sides work to finalize a delayed trade statement, the FT reported. Disputes over "non-tariff barriers," which Washington says include the EU's Digital Services Act, have stalled the announcement. The statement was expected soon after European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and President Trump unveiled a tariff deal in Scotland on July 27. EU officials said the US wants room for concession on the act, but Brussels has called the rules a red line. The FT reports: Read more here. US adviser Navarro says India's Russian crude buying must stop Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. US trade partners still waiting on Trump to seal their 'deals' US trade partners that worked out exemptions to President Trump's tariffs — like the UK's deal to reduce tariffs on its steel to zero — are still waiting for the agreements to be finalized months later, Bloomberg reports, and are growing frustrated. Read more here. US trade partners that worked out exemptions to President Trump's tariffs — like the UK's deal to reduce tariffs on its steel to zero — are still waiting for the agreements to be finalized months later, Bloomberg reports, and are growing frustrated. Read more here. Candidates at Iowa State Fair hear from voters about Trump tariffs (Bloomberg) — Republican Representative Zach Nunn is making an Iowa State Fair video about President Donald Trump's tax law, shot on a John Deere tractor under the blazing August sun. In it, Nunn, one of the nation's most vulnerable incumbents, talks to constituent Sarah Curry about how the expanded child tax credit will help with the cost of one child's speech therapy. Nunn is also planning to use the state fair as the backdrop for more videos selling the bill's provisions temporarily cutting taxes on tips and overtime. Economic issues — namely, Trump's tax package and his tariff war with countries that buy much of Iowa's agricultural products — will be front and center in Nunn's race, and he's eager to get a jumpstart defining the issues. So, too, are Democrats, who see Iowa's two swing districts as must-wins in their push to take back the House majority. Democrat Jennifer Konfrst, who is working to unseat Nunn, said she approaches Iowans at the fair asking them what keeps them up at night and the answer is usually 'costs.' Read more here. (Bloomberg) — Republican Representative Zach Nunn is making an Iowa State Fair video about President Donald Trump's tax law, shot on a John Deere tractor under the blazing August sun. In it, Nunn, one of the nation's most vulnerable incumbents, talks to constituent Sarah Curry about how the expanded child tax credit will help with the cost of one child's speech therapy. Nunn is also planning to use the state fair as the backdrop for more videos selling the bill's provisions temporarily cutting taxes on tips and overtime. Economic issues — namely, Trump's tax package and his tariff war with countries that buy much of Iowa's agricultural products — will be front and center in Nunn's race, and he's eager to get a jumpstart defining the issues. So, too, are Democrats, who see Iowa's two swing districts as must-wins in their push to take back the House majority. Democrat Jennifer Konfrst, who is working to unseat Nunn, said she approaches Iowans at the fair asking them what keeps them up at night and the answer is usually 'costs.' Read more here. Tariffs' impact on Walmart, other retailers' earnings about to come into focus Several major retailers will report earnings this week, which may give a first glimpse into how President Trump's tariffs have affected their bottom lines. The list includes Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD), Lowe's Companies (LOW) TJ Maxx parent TJX Companies (TJX) and Ross Stores (ROST). The Trump administration has urged retailers not to raise prices for consumers to offset the tariffs' impact, with a particular focus on Walmart, The Street reminds us: Read more here. Several major retailers will report earnings this week, which may give a first glimpse into how President Trump's tariffs have affected their bottom lines. The list includes Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD), Lowe's Companies (LOW) TJ Maxx parent TJX Companies (TJX) and Ross Stores (ROST). The Trump administration has urged retailers not to raise prices for consumers to offset the tariffs' impact, with a particular focus on Walmart, The Street reminds us: Read more here. Trump's trade war not likely to cause recession, Moody's economist says Economist Justin Begley of Moody's Analytics tells USA Today that President Trump's economic policies won't cause a recession or stagflation, but will likely slow growth and push up inflation. The economy isn't in stagflation yet, Begley said, "but it's edging that way," he adds: Read more here. Economist Justin Begley of Moody's Analytics tells USA Today that President Trump's economic policies won't cause a recession or stagflation, but will likely slow growth and push up inflation. The economy isn't in stagflation yet, Begley said, "but it's edging that way," he adds: Read more here. Commerce department applies 50% steel, aluminum tariffs to more products (Reuters) -The Trump administration widened the reach of its 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by adding hundreds of derivative products to the list of goods subject to the levies. In a Federal Register notice late on Friday, the Commerce Department said the Bureau of Industry and Security was adding 407 product codes to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States that identify the goods to be hit with the additional duties on the steel and aluminum content of those products. The non-steel and non-aluminum content will be subject to the tariff rates President Donald Trump has imposed on the goods originating from specific countries, the notice said. The levies on the goods on the expanded list go into effect on August 18. Read more here. (Reuters) -The Trump administration widened the reach of its 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by adding hundreds of derivative products to the list of goods subject to the levies. In a Federal Register notice late on Friday, the Commerce Department said the Bureau of Industry and Security was adding 407 product codes to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States that identify the goods to be hit with the additional duties on the steel and aluminum content of those products. The non-steel and non-aluminum content will be subject to the tariff rates President Donald Trump has imposed on the goods originating from specific countries, the notice said. The levies on the goods on the expanded list go into effect on August 18. Read more here. Consumers' inflation expectations rise amid Trump tariffs Inflation expectations rose from July to August, indicating that consumers remain uncertain about President Trump's trade policies. Year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 4.9% from 4.5% last month, according to the University of Michigan's survey of consumers. Long-run inflation expectations also rose to 3.9% in August from 3.4% in July. "Overall, consumers are no longer bracing for the worst-case scenario for the economy feared in April when reciprocal tariffs were announced and then paused," Joanne Hsu, the university's Surveys of Consumers director, wrote. "However, consumers continue to expect both inflation and unemployment to deteriorate in the future." Consumer sentiment also deteriorated month over month, falling for the first time in four months. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 58.6 from 61.7 a month ago. Read more here. Inflation expectations rose from July to August, indicating that consumers remain uncertain about President Trump's trade policies. Year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 4.9% from 4.5% last month, according to the University of Michigan's survey of consumers. Long-run inflation expectations also rose to 3.9% in August from 3.4% in July. "Overall, consumers are no longer bracing for the worst-case scenario for the economy feared in April when reciprocal tariffs were announced and then paused," Joanne Hsu, the university's Surveys of Consumers director, wrote. "However, consumers continue to expect both inflation and unemployment to deteriorate in the future." Consumer sentiment also deteriorated month over month, falling for the first time in four months. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 58.6 from 61.7 a month ago. Read more here. US import prices rebound in July on higher consumer goods costs US import prices rebounded in July in the latest sign that inflation is set to pick up because of tariffs. Reuters reports: Read more here. US import prices rebounded in July in the latest sign that inflation is set to pick up because of tariffs. Reuters reports: Read more here. Trump says semiconductor tariffs could reach 300% President Trump said Friday he is planning on unveiling tariffs on semiconductor imports over the next two weeks, hinting that those duties could reach as high as 300%. From Bloomberg: Read more here. President Trump said Friday he is planning on unveiling tariffs on semiconductor imports over the next two weeks, hinting that those duties could reach as high as 300%. From Bloomberg: Read more here. Applied Materials' shares sink on weak China demand, tariff risks Shares in Applied Materials (AMAT) sank 14% before the bell on Friday after the chip equipment maker issued weak fourth-quarter forecasts on sluggish China demand, fueling concerns over tariff-related risks. Reuters reports: Read more here. Shares in Applied Materials (AMAT) sank 14% before the bell on Friday after the chip equipment maker issued weak fourth-quarter forecasts on sluggish China demand, fueling concerns over tariff-related risks. Reuters reports: Read more here. Sign in to access your portfolio


Politico
24 minutes ago
- Politico
Inside Trump world's reaction to the Zelenskyy reset
3. Trump offered to go straight to a trilateral meeting. The senior administration official told POLITICO that when Trump called Putin to offer his presence at a meeting between Zelenskyy and the Russian leader, Putin said, 'You don't have to come. I want to see him one on one.' Trump's team 'started working on that,' the official said. 'Steve Witkoff has the assignment to get it figured [out].' 4. Alaska paved the way for the 'security guarantees' discussion. If there was any concern within the administration about how the Putin meeting in Anchorage went down, Monday all but evaporated it. 'After Alaska, we were excited that Putin was at least talking and there were signs we could negotiate,' a second senior administration official told POLITICO. One of those signs came on the topic of security guarantees: Putin was 'engaging on a conversation about security guarantees instead of, 'Nyet, nyet, nyet,' this second official said. 'If Alaska was not successful and Putin didn't give us a little bit of an opening, we wouldn't have [had] the Europeans at the White House.' Of Putin: 'He'll drive a hard bargain, but that opening is huge.' 5. Those security guarantees could be a sticking point internationally. It remains unclear just how big a commitment the U.S. has on the line here. 'We haven't even started [that discussion] other than a commitment,' the first senior administration official told POLITICO. 'The question is, 'Who participates to what percentage?' But the president did commit that we would be a part of it. No specifics. And then he said he would also help it get organized. And he alone could sell that to Putin. I don't think Putin would pay any attention to the others, and I'm not sure the others would do it without him.' 6. And those same guarantees could be a problem for Trump domestically. Does the administration have a red line when it comes to committing U.S. troops to keep a peace in Ukraine? 'I don't think there's a red line,' the first senior official told POLITICO. 'So I think it just kind of remains to be seen. [President Trump] would like the Europeans to step up. But I think if the last piece of the puzzle was for a period of time to be a part of a peacekeeping force, I think he would do it.' Meanwhile, as European leaders arrived at the White House, MAGA coalition minder Steve Bannon took to his influential 'War Room' podcast to warn about the U.S. security guarantees in Ukraine. 'I'm just lost how the United States offering an Article 5 commitment for a security guarantee to Ukraine is a win for the United States,' Bannon said on his show Monday morning . 'President Trump has done more than enough to bring the parties together,' Bannon told POLITICO late Monday night. 'Once again, this is a European problem; we have all the leverage here. If we don't fund this, it stops happening. The only way this goes forward — the only way this continues every day — is American money and American arms. The Europeans don't have enough either military hardware and/or financial wherewithal.' Bannon said he hopes Trump 'eventually stops listening to the [Sens.] Lindsey Grahams and Tom Cottons and the Mitch McConnells, and realizes that there can't be any guarantee here from the United States, because that's going to inextricably link us to this conflict.' In a Truth Social post on Monday about the next steps, Trump said 'Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, are coordinating with Russia and Ukraine.' That callout was striking. 'That's the first time JD and Marco have been dragged into a big foreign policy issue together,' the second senior administration official told POLITICO. 'If it's JD and Marco and Witkoff, who gets the credit and who gets the blame if it fails? This could be the first test of 2028.' Like this content? Consider signing up for POLITICO's Playbook newsletter.


USA Today
25 minutes ago
- USA Today
Is America done with clean energy? Why wind, solar power are in peril
Since taking office, the Trump Administration has paused permits on all new wind and solar projects on public land, both onshore and offshore. New wind and solar power installations, and the cheap, clean energy they provide to America, may not survive the Trump administration. Building on public concerns and his own dislike of "ugly," "disgusting" wind turbines and "ridiculous" solar farms, President Donald Trump has issued a blizzard of directives and executive orders limiting new solar and wind projects across the county. In at least one case, the administration yanked back an already-issued permit. Instead, the administration is promoting energy production from oil, natural gas and coal, which the Biden administration had made more expensive through regulations Trump is now dismantling. 'They're basically trying to make it impossible or next to impossible to build wind or solar power in this country while at the same time rolling back regulations on fossil fuels,' said Nick Krakoff, senior attorney with the Boston-based Conservation Law Foundation, a nonprofit environmental organization. Wind and solar power are two of the fastest-growing energy sectors in the United States and produced as much as 17% of the country's electricity last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the statistical agency of the Department of Energy. Since taking office, the Trump administration has paused permits on all new wind and solar projects on public land, onshore and offshore. The vast majority of renewable energy projects – 95% – are on private land, according to a report by the Brookings Institution. But many of those require some type of federal approval and are also being stalled by the new rules. It's this push to end large-scale energy projects on private property as well that some in the energy industry consider especially troubling. 'It's expected that every time you have a major change in administrations, policies on public land might change," said Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association. 'But the willingness of this administration to create political and bureaucratic barriers to private economic activity on private land is something nobody anticipated.' A shift that began Jan. 20 The dozens of new rules, mostly issued by the Department of the Interior, add multiple layers of permit requirements to an already thorough process – requirements that could slow or stymie some projects. 'It looks like they are just trying to find any moment at which the federal government interacts with a project and putting it on this list," said Michelle Solomon, manager of the electricity program at Energy Innovation, Policy and Technology, an energy think tank based in San Francisco. The flood of new regulations began on Jan. 20 when the administration temporarily withdrew all permits for offshore wind projects. On July 7, all subsidies for wind and solar projects were ended, though federal subsidies for coal, oil and natural gas were left in place. On July 15, the Department of the Interior added multiple layers of review for all wind and solar projects on public land, including a requirement that the secretary of the interior sign off on each one. It was not clear whether these requirements will stop new projects from being permitted, but "at the very least it will slow decisions down – and a lot of the decisions are not controversial, they're routine,' Krakoff said. On July 29, the department required wind or solar projects that have been approved but are being sued by opponents be federally reviewed and possibly canceled. Nearly a third of solar projects and half of wind projects that completed Environmental Impact Statements faced lawsuits, according to research by Resources for the Future, a Washington, DC-based nonprofit research institute. Targeting the renewable energy industry Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin said in March that the administration's efforts "are driving a dagger straight into the heart of the climate change religion." The new rules will ensure that wind and solar projects "receive appropriate oversight when federal resources, permits or consultations are involved," Department of the Interior senior public affairs specialist Elizabeth Pease said in a statement emailed to USA TODAY. The directives are already having an effect. On Aug. 6, the agency announced it was reversing a permit for a 1,000-megawatt wind facility that had been approved in Idaho. 'They're canceling meetings and taking down web pages," Grumet of American Clean Power said, adding that he sees the moves as "an unprecedented effort to weaponize bureaucracy to undermine an American industry." In early August, Nevada's Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo complained to the secretary of the interior in a letter that solar projects deep in the project pipeline have been frozen. 'This is part of a pattern of targeting the renewable energy industry," said the Conservation Law Foundation's Krakoff. "It's pretty unprecedented to target an entire industry and undermine the rule of law." Power demands are at an all-time high and rising These actions could stop cold what has been the biggest contributor to U.S. power supplies at a time when power demands driven by global warming and the needs of artificial intelligence and data centers are pushing power consumption to all-time highs. 'We need to build more power generation now, and that includes renewable energy. The U.S. will need roughly 118 gigawatts (the equivalent of 12 New York Cities) of new power generation in the next four years to prevent price spikes and potential shortages," said Ray Long, CEO of the American Council on Renewable Energy." Only a limited set of technologies – solar, wind, batteries and some natural gas – can be built at that scale in that time frame." As of last year, 17% of electricity in the United States was created by wind or solar power. Of the new power generation projected to come online this year, 93% was expected to come from solar, wind or battery storage, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Solar power appears to be less impacted by the policy shifts than wind, Solomon said. 'Certainly the administration is seemingly trying to do everything they can to slow progress for wind and solar – but they don't have unilateral control over everything,' she said. 'I think there's a decent chance that there's a lot of projects on private land, at least solar projects, that will not have federal permitting requirements.' China has overtaken the United States on clean energy The shift comes as the rest of the world – especially China – make significant strides in moving to cheaper power from wind and solar. "I don't think the administration fully appreciates that if they were to tie their own hands, we could be retreating in that competition with China," Grumet said. China is installing wind and solar projects faster than any other nation and today has almost half the world's wind farms. In 2023 it built out more wind and solar than the rest of the world combined. In May, its solar power reached 1,000 gigawatts. The United States' current solar capacity is 134 gigawatts. A 1 gigawatt solar facility generates enough power to support about 200,000 households, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In the first quarter of this year, China was able to produce more energy through wind and solar than through coal and gas. As of July, the country made up 74% of all wind and solar projects under construction globally. China's enormous buildout of wind and solar power caused its carbon emissions to fall by 2.7% in the first six months of this year. Some experts believe its greenhouse gas emissions may have peaked. The country's combination of clean energy production along with the success of its electric vehicles has earned it the title of the world's first "electrostate." Fossil fuel-based nations are called "petrostates." None of this bodes well for the future of the United States on the world stage, said Julio Friedmann, an expert on carbon, hydrogen and biofuels at Carbon Direct, a company that provides climate solutions. "In all likelihood, the actions will strengthen China's position as global leader," said Friedmann, who also taught at Columbia University. "At worst, the U.S. may surrender its many advantages."