Ukraine's unlikely ally against Russian attacks on energy sector — warm weather
Nearly three years into the war, Ukrainians have grown used to bracing for brutal winters with electricity blackouts and heating cuts from Russian attacks on the country's energy infrastructure.
This winter was predicted to be one of the toughest ones of the war yet. In a worst-case scenario, blackouts were expected to reach 20 hours a day. Greenpeace warned in November that Ukraine's power grid faced a "heightened risk of catastrophic failure.'
But thanks to a combination of unseasonably warm weather, and Ukraine's ability to adapt to a third year of Russian campaigns against its energy system, the worst has not come to pass.
Since Russia began targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure in late 2022, the country has learned to better protect the power grid, figuring out how to make repairs in record time following Russian strikes.
Climate change — which has been causing warmer winters each year in Ukraine — has also become Ukraine's unexpected ally in resisting Russia's tactic of freezing Ukrainians into submission.
'The fact that we have such warm weather of +6, +7 degrees Celsius (42-44 degrees Fahrenheit) is fantastically positive for us,' said Oleksandr Kharchenko, managing director of the Energy Industry Research Center, crediting the mild winter as a main factor for the lack of problems with power in Ukraine.
In the past, Ukraine had hot summers and cold winters, consistent with its mostly continental climate.
Snow and temperatures below zero degrees Celsius (32 degrees Fahrenheit) characterized every winter, including the one in 2014 when the Euromaidan Revolution unfolded and protesters on Independence Square in Kyiv danced to patriotic chants to warm up.
Things are different now. Ukraine's Environment Ministry on Jan.19 went as far as to say in a social media post that, 'Due to global warming, there is no climatic winter in Ukraine (this year).'
'Due to global warming, there is no climatic winter in Ukraine (this year).'
'If the winter used to be a season of frost and snow, then now the weather often reminds of late autumn or early spring,' the ministry wrote.
The Central Geophysical Observatory declared 2024 'the warmest year on record' in Kyiv, with the December average at zero degrees Celsius. Temperatures were above zero every day the last week of January, a record for the country, the observatory said.
'Ukraine is one of the regions of the planet where the temperature has been rising at the highest rate over the past decade,' said Svitlana Krakovska, head of the applied climatology laboratory at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute.
'And the main warming occurs primarily in winter,' she was cited as having said in the ministry's post on social media.
Ukraine hasn't yet had to implement any country-wide rolling blackouts in 2025, according to open data collected by the Energy Map.
These scheduled limitations of electricity supply for businesses and households were put in place at various times throughout the previous years to cut the consumption in peak hours to avoid the collapse of the country's strained power system.
Hours-long blackouts were widely used throughout the country for much of the spring and summer of 2024 following Russia's bombing of power plants and transmission stations, and during scheduled repairs of the nuclear power plants. The power cuts were implemented sporadically throughout December.
'As you can see, electricity is now being supplied without restrictions almost all over the country, apart from the front-line regions, where the situation is difficult in general,' Kharchenko told the Kyiv Independent.
'As you can see, electricity is now being supplied without restrictions almost all over the country, apart from the front-line regions, where the situation is difficult in general.'
As the temperature continues to hover at or above zero, the country's energy system hasn't yet entered a red zone where it has to start cutting power.
'Every degree below zero Celsius requires an additional 200 megawatts (MW) of power,' he added. 'With our current operating capacities, we simply don't have enough (to cater) for temperatures of minus three and four degrees Celsius (24-26 degrees Fahrenheit) and below.'
Russia has regularly targeted Ukrainian critical infrastructure since it began its campaign in 2022, destroying over half of the country's pre-war power system capacities.
'In 2022-2023, Ukraine's power system lost about 21 gigawatts (GW) of capacity,' out of the 47 GW before the full-on war, wrote Oksana Zueva, a senior expert in open data at Kyiv-based think tank DiXi Group.
To take that much capacity out, Moscow carried out at least thirty massive attacks on energy facilities, according to open data gathered by the Energy Map.
The attacks evolved over time to use various weapons and tactics, while Russia's goal remained the same: plunging Ukraine into a humanitarian crisis, making regular citizens' lives as difficult as possible, and destabilizing the country before any possible peace talks in the future.
Around 10 GW of energy generation was knocked out in 2024 due to Russia's missile and drone attacks, the Energy Ministry told the Kyiv Independent.
Since mid-November, six massive attacks were launched by Russia over the two and a half months of this winter season, causing 'much greater damage and destruction than in previous years,' the ministry added. The attacks included anywhere between 70 to 90 cruise or ballistic missiles and 90 to 120 drones each time, as well as internationally banned cluster munitions.
'But they didn't reach their goals,' Kharchenko told the Kyiv Independent.
According to Kharchenko, Ukraine has also gotten much better in resisting Russia's attacks on energy in over two years since they began. It improved coordination with air defense protecting the power system and built some fortifications that have already proved effective.
Experience also helps when the attacks succeed: at this point, there are reserves of equipment to restore the damaged facilities and clear plans for bypassing them in the grid and restoring them as quickly as possible, Kharchenko said.
A lot of that equipment is pledged or financed by international partners, the Energy Ministry told the Kyiv Independent.
'In 2024, Ukrenergo's repair teams set an absolute record by replacing an autotransformer at one of its substations within three weeks,' Ukraine's state grid operator Ukrenergo told the Kyiv Independent.
'This included transportation, installation, and connection. For comparison, in EU countries, such works are carried out in three to four months,' the statement said.
Warm weather also contributed to the speed of repairs, Ukrenergo said.
However, with temperatures projected to drop in the coming days, Ukraine needs to secure its energy supply for any weather.
'For the Ukrainian power system to operate efficiently and confidently, we need to build about 4-4.5 GW of additional peaking power plants,' Kharchenko said.
Peaking power plants are meant to step in during peak periods of consumption to avoid blackouts. They should be able to quickly increase or decrease the energy output, which is impossible for the three Ukrainian-controlled nuclear power plants that currently supply up to 55-60% of the country's energy, according to Kharchenko.
Peaking power plants could be coal-based, hydroelectric, or gas-powered, Kharchenko added, as other types of power are either dependent on weather conditions or too long to develop.
But so far, it was coal-based thermal plants, hydroelectric plants, and the transmission grid around them that were targeted by Russian attacks the most.
Eighty percent of Ukraine's pre-war coal-fired power capacities were destroyed, though some of them were restored, Kharchenko said.
Nine Ukrainian hydroelectric plants remaining after Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka dam still generate up to 12% of the country's energy despite Russian attacks.
'Unfortunately, we can't build many of them,' Kharchenko said, referring to the limitations of the country's natural river resources needed to build more hydroelectric generation.
We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
2025 hurricane season: Colorado State researchers still expect 17 named storms this year
Colorado State University researchers, in an update to their hurricane season outlook, said Wednesday that the forecast remains the same: You can expect an estimated 17 named storms this year, with nine of them becoming hurricanes. Of the nine predicted hurricanes, CSU researchers believe four could hit major hurricane strength, which means achieving sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Above-average temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea is primarily what's to blame for the higher-than-normal expected number of hurricanes as a main fuel source for intense storms is warm ocean water. However, CSU researchers also noted 'more uncertainty' with the June forecast due to the climate signals — the sea-surface temperatures — being somewhat weaker this year than last. 'So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011 and 2021,' Phil Klotzbach, a CSU senior research scientist, said in a statement. 'While the average of our analog seasons had above-average levels of activity, the relatively large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the uncertainty associated with this outlook.' This year's forecast is tamer than 2024's forecast when CSU researchers predicted an 'extremely active' season with 11 hurricanes. Temperatures in the Atlantic were very hot in June of last year at 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. But since January of this year, winds have been blowing across the Atlantic fairly strongly, Klotzbach said, which means the water won't be as hot. Klotzbach compared it to exiting a swimming pool on a windy day: 'You're cold and in a hurry because of all the evaporational cooling,' he said. The consensus about this year's forecast generally appears to be similar, Klotzbach said. CSU looks at other entities' predictions too, and most tend to be at or above average, according to the seasonal hurricane predictions data made in conjunction with Barcelona Supercomputing Center. 'On average most groups are (predicting) somewhere between eight and nine hurricanes,' Klotzbach said. 'There's really nobody going super gangbusters.' And even though hurricane season has already begun, the major hurricanes are not likely to hit until the period between August and October, Klotzbach said. CSU first released its hurricane season forecast in April and will again release updates in July and August. Klotzbach emphasized how the forecasts are informational tools and not meant to teach people exactly how to prepare. 'The forecast could be woefully wrong, maybe it's a super quiet season. but even if we can forecast exactly the number of storms, we can't tell you where they're going to go,' he said.


Newsweek
7 hours ago
- Newsweek
Millions Warned About Going Outside This Weekend
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Authorities in Arizona and California have warned millions of residents to limit outdoor activities from Saturday through Monday, as an extreme heat watch was issued for portions of both states, including the greater Phoenix and Tucson areas. Why It Matters The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast that dangerously high temperatures—up to 115 degrees Fahrenheit in some regions—are expected over the weekend, putting the public at heightened risk for heat-related illnesses. What To Know The watch encompassed a large portion of southern Arizona, and a neighboring portion of southeastern California. It warned that overexposure to the "dangerously hot conditions" could cause heat cramps and heat exhaustion to develop. Without intervention this could lead to heat stroke, it said, adding that heat-related illnesses "increase significantly during extreme heat events." Stock photo of an extreme heat danger sign in Death Valley which is the lowest, hottest, driest place in the U.S. Stock photo of an extreme heat danger sign in Death Valley which is the lowest, hottest, driest place in the offices in Phoenix and Tucson urged: "Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening." Residents were also urged to check on neighbors and relatives. The agency recommended that residents stay hydrated, avoid the sun during peak hours, and wear loose, light-colored clothing to reduce exposure and overheating. "An extreme heat watch means that a period of very hot temperatures, even by local standards, may occur. Actions should be taken to lessen the impact of the extreme heat," the NWS said in the advisories. "Reschedule outdoor activities in the coming days," NWS Tucson advised in post on X, formerly Twitter. "Make sure that children, the elderly and pets have a place to cool off during the heat." What People Are Saying NWS Tucson said on X on Wednesday: "An extreme heat watch is in effect Saturday morning through Monday evening. These will be the hottest temperatures of the year so far, with Tucson likely reaching 110 degrees [Fahrenheit]. Take precautions if working or doing activities outside." NWS Phoenix said on X on Tuesday: "High temperatures today were generally in the mid to upper 100s, which is a good 3-7 degrees above average for the date. Expect very similar readings through the end of the week." The National Weather Service said on X on Wednesday: "During hot and humid weather, your body's ability to cool itself is challenged in ways you may not expect. When your body heats too rapidly, or when too much fluid or salt is lost through dehydration or sweating, you may experience a heat-related illness. Stay weather-ready by learning the symptoms of extreme heat exposure and the appropriate responses." What Happens Next At the time of writing, the extreme heat watch was set to remain in effect until Monday evening. The NWS issues regular forecast updates and advice on its website.
Yahoo
12 hours ago
- Yahoo
Month of May was world's second-warmest on record: EU scientists
This year, the world experienced its second-warmest month of May since records began, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has said in a monthly bulletin. Global surface temperatures last month averaged 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than in the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period, when humans began burning fossil fuels on an industrial scale, C3S said. The latest data comes amid mixed momentum on climate action globally, with China and the EU reducing emissions as the Trump administration and technology companies increase their use of fossil fuels. 'Temperatures were most above average over western Antarctica, a large area of the Middle East and western Asia, northeastern Russia, and northern Canada,' the C3S bulletin added. At 1.4C above pre-industrial levels, May was also the first month globally not to go over 1.5C (2.7F) in warming in 22 months. 'May 2025 breaks an unprecedentedly long sequence of months over 1.5C above pre-industrial,' said Carlo Buontempo, director of C3S. 'Whilst this may offer a brief respite for the planet, we do expect the 1.5C threshold to be exceeded again in the near future due to the continued warming of the climate system,' Buontempo said. The increased temperatures were particularly felt in Pakistan's Jacobabad city in Sindh province, where residents grappled with extreme temperatures in the high 40s, which sometimes reached 50C (122 F). The soaring temperatures followed another heatwave last June that killed more than 560 people in southern Pakistan. 'While a heatwave that is around 20C might not sound like an extreme event from the experience of most people around the world, it is a really big deal for this part of the world,' Friederike Otto, associate professor in climate science at Imperial College London, told reporters. 'It affects the whole world massively,' Otto added. 'Without climate change, this would have been impossible.' In a separate report released on Wednesday, the World Weather Attribution (WWA) research collaboration said Greenland's ice sheet melted 17 times faster than the past average during a May heatwave that also hit latest data comes amid mixed progress on climate change action. United States President Donald Trump has promised to 'drill, baby, drill' during his presidency, even as his country faces increasingly severe weather events, like the fires that tore through California's capital, Los Angeles, late last year. Emissions from technology companies are also surging, as expanding use of artificial intelligence (AI) and data centres drives up global electricity demand, according to a recent report from the United Nations International Telecommunication Union (ITU). New analysis by the climate reporting site Carbon Brief found that China's emissions may have peaked, as the country increased electricity supplies from new wind, solar, and nuclear capacity and reduced its reliance on coal and other fossil fuels. 'China's emissions were down 1.6 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 and by 1 percent in the latest 12 months,' Carbon Brief reported last month. 'If this pattern is sustained, then it would herald a peak and sustained decline in China's power-sector emissions,' it added. The EU also announced last week that its 27 member states are well on track to meet their goal of a 55 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. 'Emissions are down 37 percent since 1990, while the economy has grown nearly 70 percent — proving climate action and growth go hand in hand,' said Wopke Hoekstra, the EU's commissioner for climate, net zero and clean growth. In the Caribbean, leaders met recently to plan ways to restore the region's mangrove forests, which help prevent climate change and protect from rising sea levels and intensifying storms.