UK weather: Are we getting another heatwave or has Storm Floris ended summer early?

BBC News

5 hours ago

After multiple heatwaves early on this summer, many areas of the UK have seen cooler and wetter conditions dominate.Storm Floris then made it feel like autumn had arrived early as it swept the country on Monday.However, those on their summer break should not give up hope yet of drier and warmer conditions this month.Forecasts are showing the potential for bursts of warmth through the rest of August, especially in the south and east of England.
Why has it turned wetter and windier?
During the first half of summer the jet stream, a ribbon of fast flowing air in the higher atmosphere where planes fly, was mainly to the north of the UK. It allowed long-lasting areas of high pressure to sit over the UK keeping rain clouds away and helping heat to build. This though lead to drought conditions developing, hosepipe bans being introduced, and wildfires to breaking out.Three separate heatwaves developed in the space of a month.
Since then, then jet stream has sat closer to the UK. It has allowed low pressure systems to graze the country, bringing breezier conditions, bands of rain to northern and western areas, and showers elsewhere.A particularly strong jet stream through the weekend then developed and steered Storm Floris across the northern half of the UK on Monday, bring unseasonably strong winds to many areas.An 82mph wind gust at Wick equalled Scotland's August wind record. Travel disruption was widespread and thousands were without power. A cooler breeze in its wake has continued to make it feel more like autumn than summer.
Could an ex-tropical storm trigger the return of summer?
The Atlantic storm season has been relatively quiet so far, however the presence of Tropical Storm Dexter, currently in the west Atlantic north of Bermuda, could help spark a change in weather patterns again.While Dexter will not affect us directly, as it moves eastwards across the Atlantic and decays over the next few days it is likely to help build a ridge of high pressure over the UK during the weekend.This will help to gradually draw up warmer air through the weekend, especially across southern and eastern areas. Temperatures could climb into the high 20s Celsius in some areas. Parts of north-western UK may remain cooler with the chance of rain for a time.
A hot end to August?
The exact track of Dexter will determine how long this next batch of warmth lasts and how close to heatwave thresholds some areas will get.However, it does look like it will trigger a shift in weather patterns that sees high pressure sit closer to the UK at times through the rest of the month.It will mean that all areas of the UK should have drier conditions compared with the past few weeks, although occasional showers can still be expected, especially in more northern and western areas.Weather models are also hinting at further bursts of heat too. With temperatures on the near continent into the mid-30s at times, we may tap into that with some southern areas possibly hitting or exceeding 30 Celsius, but it is too early to pinpoint which days will be warmer than others.Overall, average temperatures across the UK for August are expected to be above-normal, in line with a warming climate as well as the overriding forecast weather patterns.Our monthly outlook is regularly updated to help with planning over the coming weeks.