Thai poultry industry poised for growth on Brazil bird flu, lower feed costs
Prasit Boondoungprasert, CEO of Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF.BK), opens new tab, Thailand's largest agribusiness, said the current market situation is favourable for the Thai poultry industry.
"Prices are reasonably good, costs are low," he said.
However, gains for Thailand from Brazil's problems hinge on the length of the bird flu outbreak and the duration of import bans in some markets. "If it's shorter than three to six months, the impact will be minimal. After that, there will be some upside," said Veera Titayangkaruvong, investor relations manager at Thai poultry exporter GFPT (GFPT.BK), opens new tab.
Brazil began a 28-day bird flu observation period last week, hoping to confirm disease-free status after disinfecting the affected farm.
Global prices of key feed ingredients such as corn and soy meal have declined around 30% in recent years. And while lower costs benefit the industry globally, Thai firms such as CPF, GFPT (GFPT.BK), opens new tab and Betagro (BTG.BK), opens new tab are well positioned due to control of fully integrated supply chains, from feed mills to farms and processing plants.
Major importers China and the European Union have this month suspended Brazilian poultry imports, while Japan halted meat imports from the southern city of Montenegro due to an avian flu outbreak, opening a window for Thai exporters to capture market share.
"Customers are increasingly thinking about risk management. If they rely too much on Brazil ... they have to diversify," Prasit told Reuters.
U.S. poultry prices have risen 3% in May .
Veerapong Panjawattanakul, owner of Pongsak Agricultural, said he plans to increase production by 5%, while Anupong Pipatvacharaporn of Somchit Farm in Nakhon Pathom said idle farms could be restarted if prices rise further.
"Chicken coops, the old ones that went out of business, they are being put up for sale (or) rent online."
Brazil's poultry exports dipped in May, according to government data.
The outbreak threatens up to 1.5 million metric tons of Brazilian poultry exports and Thailand could fill between 300,000 and 400,000 tons of that gap, generating up to $1.7 billion, said Pimnara Hirankasi, chief economist at Krungsri Research, a unit of Bank of Ayudhya.
More than half of Thai chicken exports are processed products, allowing the industry to tap into growing demand for ready-to-eat chicken, compared with Brazil's 2.5%, she said.
Before the Brazil outbreak, Thailand forecast an annual rise of 2% in poultry exports, said Kukrit Arepagorn of the Thai Broiler Processing Exporters Association.
"It's a positive factor for exports," he said. "But it depends on how long the ban on Brazil lasts."
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