How George Pell could shape the outcome of the papal conclave – from beyond the grave

The Age

06-05-2025

His family was forced to flee Hungary with just the clothes on their backs after invading Soviet troops burned down their family home in 1956.
He has maintained a quiet, rigorous stewardship of the Hungarian church – largely untouched by Vatican scandal or headlines. Canon law, the body of laws and regulations governing the Catholic Church, plays a central role in Erdo's work.
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He is, as one Vatican observer put it, 'Francis' opposite in almost every way.'
In his dual role as pastor and academic, Erdo has earned respect across ideological lines. Yet, his conservative credentials are clear. He has publicly opposed Communion for remarried divorcees, refused to blur doctrinal lines on sexuality, and views the concept of synodality – a way of governing the church that emphasises listening and active participation by all members of the faithful – with a cautious legal eye.
'If faith is the most important thing in life, then serving the faith of others, passing on the faith, teaching the faith, and especially ministering at the liturgy, are the greatest things in life, the most important things one can do, and most useful, also for the salvation of others,' he said in an interview last year.
For the bloc of cardinals disillusioned with Francis's papacy – and alarmed by what they view as doctrinal experimentation – Erdo is the antidote. His candidacy, which was once whispered on the margins, is now said to be discussed in the frescoed halls of the Apostolic Palace.
'Many Catholics feel that the church needs to be brought back from a sense of ecclesiastical lawlessness that evolved under Francis,' said Vatican analyst Edward Pentin, one of Rome's most respected Vatican observers. 'Erdo would be a safe pair of hands.'
Dreher believes the fact that a man of Pell's stature and conviction has backed him was 'a powerful endorsement'.
Not a populist, not a revolutionary, he would be, for many conservatives, a living answer to the Italian adage: 'Papa grasso, papa magro' – fat pope, thin pope – the pendulum swing that suggests a progressive pope is often followed by a conservative one.
Dr Paul Collins, a church historian and former priest, says Erdo will be the candidate of those who want to 'move away from Pope Francis' agenda completely'.
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Some of those cardinals, he says, are sceptical of Catholics embracing causes like environmentalism or gay rights as spiritual equivalents to church doctrine. 'They feel this leads to the loss of a specifically Christian and Catholic identity,' Collins says, 'and they want to reassert what is distinctively Catholic.'
Pell's support, he says, 'tells you everything'. He also notes that with Francis having appointed eight in 10 of the 133 cardinals entering the conclave, it seems unlikely that the conservative bloc supporting Erdo will have enough influence to elect him pope.
'I am not quite sure the conservatives are that powerful and organised any more either,' he says. 'And George's advocacy didn't always work the way he thought it would.'
Having been described as the favoured candidate of Hungary's right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban has also likely dented Erdo's chances.
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The conclave, which begins May 7, will be a reckoning. The general congregations held last week saw fierce debate behind closed doors. While some cardinals praised Francis, others – including Beniamino Stella, once thought to be in his inner circle – openly criticised his reforms, especially the decision to give top Vatican posts to laypeople, including women.
Conservative stalwart Cardinal Joseph Zen used his address to decry the synodal process itself, calling it a dilution of episcopal authority – the power and responsibility bishops hold over the Church's governance, doctrine, and pastoral care.
For many in this camp, Erdo has emerged not only as their voice but as their hope – a potential unifier for traditionalists across regions.
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But he is not alone and starts, according to many, a long way back. Pietro Parolin remains a front-runner, particularly for those who value diplomatic experience. Matteo Zuppi, a Francis ally, is admired for his work on peace negotiations but may be viewed as too progressive. Luis Antonio Tagle retains support among global South cardinals, though his 2019 rendition of Imagine - which has been shared on social media, continues to haunt him in conservative circles. They don't like the thought of a world with no religion.
Another rising name is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. He has been praised for his steady leadership in the Middle East and deep knowledge of Scripture.
Pentin believes he may have a real shot, but notes: 'At 60, maybe he is a bit young. Cardinals may be hesitant to elect someone who could quite conceivably be around a long time. But maybe they will, if they value stability.'