Goldman Flags Scope for Higher Oil and Gas on Mideast Scenarios
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. flagged the possibility of higher oil and gas prices after the US struck Iran, even as the bank's base-case outlook hinges on major disruptions to supplies from the region.
If oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were to drop by half for a month, and remained 10% lower for another 11, Brent would spike briefly to as much as $110 a barrel, analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note. Should Iranian supply fall by 1.75 million barrels a day, Brent would peak at $90.
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Bloomberg
39 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Emerging Assets Drop as US Strike on Iran Fans Worries About Oil
Asian currencies and stocks fell at the start of the week, as US strikes on Iran rattled investors and pushed up the price of oil. South Korea's won led the drop among currencies, contributing to the 0.3% fall in the Bloomberg Asia Dollar Index. Indonesia's rupiah also declined, and the country's central bank confirmed it had intervened both on- and offshore to arrest the slide. On the equities front, MSCI's EM equities gauge dropped 1%.
CNBC
40 minutes ago
- CNBC
Why global markets are brushing off U.S. strikes on Iran
The U.S. joining the war between Israel and Iran might seem like a geopolitical flashpoint that would send markets tumbling. Instead, investors are largely shrugging off the escalation, with many strategists believing the conflict to be contained — and even bullish for some risk assets. As of 1 p.m. Singapore time, the MSCI World index, which tracks over a thousand large and mid-cap companies from 23 developed markets, declined only 0.12%. Safe havens are also trading mixed, with the Japanese yen weakening 0.64% against the dollar, while spot gold prices slipped 0.23% to $3,360 per ounce. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.35%. In general, the market reactions after the U.S. strikes have been less aggressive, especially relative to just over a week ago when Israel launched airstrikes against Iran. "The markets view the attack on Iran as a relief with the nuclear threat now gone for the region," said Dan Ives, managing director at Wedbush, adding that he sees minimal risks of the Iran-Israel conflict spreading to the rest of the region and consequently more "isolated." While the gravity of the latest developments should not be dismissed, they are not seen as a systemic risk to global markets, other industry experts echoed. On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump said that the United States had attacked Iranian nuclear sites. Traders are now keeping a close eye on any potential countermeasures from Iran following the U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities. Iran's foreign minister warned that his country reserved "all options" to defend its sovereignty. According to Iranian state media, the country's parliament has also approved closing the Strait of Hormuz, a pivotal waterway for global oil trade, with about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products traversing through it each day. "It all depends on how Iran responds," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. "If they accept the end of their military nuclear desires… then this could be the end of the conflict and markets will be fine," he told CNBC. Boockvar is not of the view that Iran will carry out the disruption of global oil supplies. The worst-case scenario for markets would occur if Iran were to close the Strait, which is unlikely, said Marko Papic, chief strategist at GeoMacro Strategy. "If they do, oil prices go north of $100, fear and panic take over, stocks go down ~10% minimum, and investors rush to safe havens," he said. However, markets are subdued now given the "limited tools" that Tehran has at its disposal to retaliate, Papic added. The idea of shutting down the Hormuz waterway has been a recurring rhetoric from Iran, but it has never been acted upon, with experts highlighting that it is improbable. In 2018, Iran warned it could block the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. pulled out of the nuclear deal and reinstated sanctions. Similar threats were made earlier in 2011 and 2012, when senior Iranian officials — including then-Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi — said the waterway could be closed if Western nations imposed more sanctions on Iran's oil exports due to its nuclear activities. "Tehran understands that, if they were to close the Strait, the retaliation from the U.S. would be swift, punitive, and brutal," Papic added. In a similar vein, Yardeni Research founder Ed Yardeni said the latest events have not shaken his conviction in the U.S. bull market."Geopolitically, we think that Trump has just reestablished America's military deterrence capabilities, thus increasing the credibility of his 'peace through strength' mantra," he said, adding that he is targeting 6,500 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025. While predicting geopolitical developments in the Middle East is a "treacherous exercise," Yardeni believes that the region is in for a "radical transformation" now that Iranian nuclear facilities have been destroyed.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Oil up, but stocks look to slide after U.S. attacks on Iran
Oil up, but stocks look to slide after U.S. attacks on Iran originally appeared on TheStreet. The U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday changes the focus of what's ahead for the U.S. economy in the last full week of June. Because everyone is waiting to see what Iran will do, other than fire missiles on Israel. That's what happened late Saturday. 💵💰💰💵 The three biggest questions a day later: How will energy and stock markets react? Does Iran still have enough enriched uranium to make and deploy a small nuclear weapon? Will Iran move to block the ships from passing from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz into global shipping lanes? Outside geopolitics, economic events coming up include Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress on Tuesday and an important inflation nuclear question is on the table because U.S. officials weren't sure Sunday if the attacks on facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan actually destroyed nuclear materials. Vice President J.D. Vance, in fact, suggested that Iran's nuclear stock pile is still intact. If that's the case, it's possible Iran could assemble a first-generation weapon. That would be as powerful as the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, Robert Pape of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats told MSNBC's Alex Witt on Sunday. Not having this awful idea become reality depends on cooler heads prevailing. A key issue: If Iran is willing to discuss destroying or otherwise ceding control its nuclear development efforts. The Trump Administration is threatening more attacks if Iran rejects the demand. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of the world's crude oil passes — headed mostly to China, India and Asia — will send global oil prices surging and, ultimately, will boost gasoline prices in the United States and elsewhere. Stocks and bonds also would slump. Crude oil futures in New York opened up nearly $3 a barrel, then fell back quickly. At 7:30 p.m. EDT, crude was was up $2.12 to $75.99. Brent crude, the global benchmark, jumped to as high as $81.40, then fell back to $79.20 per barrel, up $2.19 Crude oil settled at $73.84 a barrel on Friday, up 34 cents. or 1.2%, from Thursday and up 21.5% so far in June. AAA's daily report on gasoline prices put the U.S. average at $3.218 a gallon, down slightly from Saturday's $3.129. Stock index futures were lower in early trading Sunday with S&P 500 futures off 28 points to 5,990. Futures based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down just 184 points to 42,333. Nasdaq-100 futures had fallen 137 points to 21,710. Stocks overall were flat last week even as global tensions heated up. Some defense-oriented stocks slipped on Friday. Palantir Technologies () was off 2% to $137.30. Lockheed Martin () , however, was up 0.4% to $470.56. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is always verbally battered by President Trump, will testify before the Congress twice this week. The questions almost certainly focus on the Iran situation and its impact on the economy. He will also have to explain why the Fed is so stubborn about NOT cutting its key federal funds rate. The Fed decided last week to leave its federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%. One Fed governor, Christopher Waller, who voted in support of holding rates steady, thinks a rate cut could come in July. Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, thinks the Fed will have better information by September. The federal funds rate mostly affects short-term rates. Bond yields influence rates on, say, home mortgages and auto loans. The 30-year mortgage rate was just under 7% on Friday. Powell's first appearance is before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday. More Economic Analysis: Federal Reserve prepares strong message on long-term interest rates Massive city workers union approves strike Analyst makes bold call on stocks, bonds, and gold The most important economic report this coming week is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), due Friday from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation rate. The index for May is expected to show a 2.3% year-over-year index. The core index, stripping out food and energy, is expected to rise 2.6%, up slightly from April. The inflation rate is still the lowest since March 2021, Barrons says. Four reports come this week that will help clarify the condition of the housing market. Existing homes sales for May, due Monday from the National Association of Realtors. Most estimates are around 4.1 million units on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis, up From April's 4 million rate. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, due Tuesday from Standard & Poor's. New-home sales, due Wednesday from the Commerce Department. Pending home sales, due Thursday from the National Association of Home Builders. S&P Global reports its flash purchasing manager index reports for June. These measure what manufacturing and services companies are actually buying. The Conference Board comes out with its monthly Consumer Confidence Index report for June Tuesday morning It may show a slight gain because the data were collected as stocks were rallying after April's stock-market slump. The University of Michigan offers its revised Consumer Sentiment Index report on Friday. Its early version suggested consumers were a touch less worried and cited the market up, but stocks look to slide after U.S. attacks on Iran first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 23, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 23, 2025, where it first appeared. Sign in to access your portfolio
