Keeping the pressure on
DRIVING THE DAY: A federal appeals court seems likely to allow President Donald Trump's National Guard deployment to Los Angeles, dealing a blow to Gov. Gavin Newsom and California, our Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report.
During an hourlong argument session today, a three-judge panel sharply questioned Newsom's argument that Trump had failed to sufficiently justify his decision to send 4,000 National Guard troops to protect federal buildings and support immigration authorities as they conduct arrests and enforcement operations.
Instead, the judges appeared to lean on centuries-old principles — backed at times by the Supreme Court — giving the president vast discretion to deploy the military to suppress civil unrest.
FOCUS UP: Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass today ended a curfew in her city's downtown, as protests there have ebbed.
But as the national consciousness shifts away from California, legal wrangling over the Trump administration's deployment of the National Guard continued in San Francisco, while in Washington, Sen. Alex Padilla delivered an emotional floor speech castigating Trump.
'How many Americans in the year 2025 see a vindictive president on a tour of retribution, unrestrained by the majority of this separate and co-equal branch of government, and wonder if it's worth it to stand up or to speak out?' Padilla asked on the Senate floor, after his handcuffing last week at Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's press conference. 'If a United States senator becomes too afraid to speak up, how can we expect any other American to do the same?'
'Colleagues, you know me,' he added. 'I can't think of a person who would describe me as a flame thrower. I try to be respectful. I try to be considerate to every member of this body, regardless of our political differences.'
Padilla's speech came as California awaited a 9th Circuit ruling on Newsom's effort to regain authority over the National Guard troops Trump sent to Los Angeles to quell protests over federal immigration raids.
While demonstrations in the region have waned, ICE plans to continue targeting agricultural, hotel and restaurant workers. Across the country in New York, federal agents today arrested another high-profile Democratic leader, New York City Comptroller and mayoral candidate Brad Lander, while he was escorting immigrants from federal court hearings.
Padilla and Newsom want to keep eyes on California and on Trump — and are highlighting implications of the administration's recent moves for the rest of the nation. Newsom today discussed the court decision and this weekend's protests in a conversation with TikTok newscaster Aaron Parnas.
'If we're successful, and I believe we should be and will be, that will be a big day in the rule of law,' the governor said of the pending ruling.
In Washington, Padilla told lawmakers they ignore the president's actions in California at their peril.
'What's happening is not just a threat to California, it's a threat to everyone in every state,' he said. 'If Donald Trump can bypass the governor and activate the National Guard to put down protests on immigrant rights, he can do it to suppress your rights too. If he can deploy the Marines to Los Angeles without justification, he can deploy them to your state too.'
IT'S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to lholden@politico.com.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY
PRICE HIKE: As California leaders negotiate over the state budget, congressional Republicans' spending plan continues to get a bigger price tag, our Jennifer Scholtes reports.
The Congressional Budget Office today estimated the megabill would add $2.8 trillion to the national deficit, up from the $2.4 trillion it forecast earlier in the month before incorporating interest rates, economic growth and inflation.
Senate Republicans are racing now to finalize changes to the House-passed version of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' they want to send to Trump's desk by July 4 to enact the president's biggest campaign-trail promises.
Democrats are using CBO's predictions to fuel their attacks against the package. The new report published Tuesday 'will disappoint every Republican who hoped tax breaks for billionaires would magically pay for themselves,' said Pennsylvania Rep. Brendan Boyle, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee.
Newsom and legislative leaders are bracing for potential cuts to the federal Medicaid and food stamp programs as they hammer out a budget ahead of their deadline at the end of the month.
IN OTHER NEWS
KICKED OFF: Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas booted Fresno Assemblymember Joaquin Arambula from the Health Committee after the Democrat was the only member of his party to vote against the budget in the lower house, this newsletter writer and Rachel Bluth reported for POLITICO Pro subscribers last night.
Rivas replaced Arambula with Los Angeles Assemblymember Jessica Caloza.
POLITICO obtained the letter announcing the change, which did not mention the reasoning behind Rivas' decision. The speaker's office declined to comment on the move.
This is the second time Arambula has lost a committee assignment after tangling with Rivas. In 2023, Rivas stripped Arambula of his role as chair of the Assembly Budget Subcommittee on Health and Human Services after the lawmaker made an unsuccessful speakership bid.
In a Friday floor speech, Arambula said he could not support the budget because it contains provisions to curb Medi-Cal spending that would require monthly premiums and ultimately freeze new adult enrollment.
DEPORTATION COSTS: The Trump administration's mass deportations could cost California hundreds of billions of dollars, according to a new Bay Area Council Economic Institute report out today.
The Council estimates undocumented residents make up 8 percent of the state's workforce and generate 5 percent of overall economic activity.
California could lose more than $270 billion of its gross domestic product without undocumented labor, the Council found.
Certain sectors would be hit particularly hard. GDP from the state's construction industry would drop by almost 16 percent, and agriculture would go down by 14 percent, according to the report.
WHAT WE'RE READING TODAY
— Downtown Los Angeles is attracting a stream of new residents and apartment occupancy has remained at 90 percent for over a year. (Los Angeles Times)
— Elon Musk's social media platform X sued New York over a state law requiring platforms to disclose sensitive speech, claiming that it was 'nearly identical' to a 2023 California law that the company successfully challenged. (Bloomberg)
— Some Southern California residents fear leaving their homes due to immigration sweeps. (Los Angeles Times)
AROUND THE STATE
— The San Diego City Council voted to cap the number of ADUs that can be built on a single-family lot. (San Diego Union-Tribune)
— Newsom asked lawmakers to delay implementing a new law mandating in vitro fertilization insurance coverage until January 2026, potentially leaving millions of Californians in limbo. (San Francisco Chronicle)
— Attorney General Rob Bonta filed a case against a Beverly Hills real estate agent accused of raising rent, claiming the increase violates a state law banning post-disaster price-gouging. (LAist)
— compiled by Nicole Norman and Juliann Ventura
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