Iraq's neutrality tested as Iran-Israel tensions mount

Shafaq News

21 hours ago

Shafaq News/ Israel's latest strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities—carried out under Operation Rising Lion—have killed senior IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists, unleashing a wave of tension that places Iraq squarely in the fallout zone.
As Tehran prepares its response, signs of Iraq's vulnerability are already visible. Unconfirmed explosions were reported in Baghdad and Saladin as the attacks echoed through Tehran and Natanz. Iraqi airspace was briefly closed, and flights were grounded, reflecting the region's growing volatility.
Dr. Ihsan al-Shammari, head of the Political Thinking Center, said these developments confirm that 'Iraq is squarely part of the response geography.' Any Iranian retaliation—whether through direct strikes or allied armed groups—is expected to involve Iraqi territory in some form.
Iran-aligned factions operating inside Iraq add another layer of risk. Groups like Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada have openly declared their readiness to target US interests if a wider war erupts. Its leader, Abu Alaa al-Walai, announced that 'hundreds of martyrdom-seekers' are prepared to act. These statements deepen Baghdad's crisis of sovereignty.
'The government is powerless to fully control these factions,' al-Shammari warns, especially if retaliation plans are shaped outside official Iraqi institutions.
The United States, for its part, authorized the voluntary departure of military families from bases across the region, including in Iraq. Dr. Firas Elias, professor of international relations, interprets the move as 'a clear signal that Washington anticipates a ground-level response from Iraqi soil.'
He urges Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to adopt a firm national stance to distance Iraq from the confrontation before events escalate beyond control.
Al-Sudani, in a statement on Thursday, reaffirmed Iraq's position, 'We reject the use of our territory for score-settling,' he said, calling for restraint and renewed diplomacy. However, Iraqi officials privately concede growing concerns over their ability to secure embassies and foreign missions should the conflict intensify.
Elsewhere in the 'Axis of Resistance,' reactions remain fragmented. Hezbollah has yet to respond to recent Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, a silence analysts say may reflect a wait-and-see posture until Iran clarifies its next move. In contrast, Yemen's Houthi movement has already pledged alignment. 'We will never abandon Iran in the face of American or Israeli aggression,' said senior Ansarallah official Abdullah al-Nuami.
Iraq's position is more precarious. The Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee (IRCC), a coalition of Tehran-backed factions, is preparing for an emergency meeting to determine its role should a regional war erupt. Early indications suggest that consensus is building toward intervention if Iran comes under sustained attack.
With its skies tense and some armed forces signaling readiness, the question remains whether Baghdad can hold its fragile balance, or whether it will once again be drawn into a conflict it neither initiated nor controls.