Trump economic advisor warns of recession if ‘big, beautiful bill' is delayed
Stephen Miran, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, warned Thursday about the economic implications of not passing President Trump's domestic policy bill by the deadline given by the White House.
While in discussion with NewsNation's Blake Burman on 'The Hill,' Miran suggested the U.S. could face a recession if Congress fails to pass the 'big, beautiful bill' by July 4.
Markets, companies and CEOs are currently confident in Congress's ability to get the legislation over the finish line, 'but if that confidence starts to ebb, that will seep into the economy,' Miran warned. 'If people start to think, 'Hey, this thing is dragging on,' we might have a $4 trillion tax hike. They hold off on investments, they hold off on hiring, they put off economic decisions.'
He continued, 'And that's really, really bad, because then the economy slips into recession because they expect that tax hike.'
When pressed by Burman on whether he was predicting there would be a recession if the bill isn't passed or the deadline is pushed back, Miran responded, 'Oh, absolutely.'
'Look, you don't implement the biggest tax hike in history, because Congress fails to do its duty and then expect the economy not to go into a recession,' he continued.
Miran suggested that 'millions of people' could lose their jobs, and nine million could lose their health insurance if the 'big, beautiful bill' fails or the deadline is pushed back.
'It would be a disaster. And so, everybody knows the absolute imperative to get this bill over the line,' Miran added.
Some economists are suggesting the Senate version of the bill may not live up to its promises for economic growth and fiscal responsibility, however. Some tax experts say tax-cut provisions meant to aid working Americans will have little, if no, effect on growth. And with all tax cut extensions factored in, the bill could end up costing between $4 trillion and $5 trillion over 10 years.
The White House has been adamant about passing Trump's massive reconciliation package by July 4.
'We expect that bill to be on the president's desk for signature by July Fourth,' press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday. The House has already passed its version of the bill, which is now waiting for passage in the Senate. It will need to be approved again by the House before Trump is able to give it his signature.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
15 minutes ago
Global shares are mostly higher after US stocks rise to the brink of a record
MANILA, Philippines -- Global shares were mostly higher on Friday as the week was winding down with the Israel-Iran ceasefire still in place and signs of progress on a China-U.S. trade deal. Investors were watching for further details after President Donald Trump said the U.S. and China had signed a trade deal. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in an interview on Bloomberg TV that the deal was signed two days ago, but did not elaborate, saying 'The president likes to close these deals himself.' China's Commerce Ministry said Friday that the two sides had 'further confirmed the details of the framework' for their trade talks. But its statement did not explicit mention an agreement to ensure U.S. access to rare earths, materials used in high-tech applications that have been at the center of negotiations. 'China will approve the export applications of controlled items that meet the conditions in accordance with the law. The United States will cancel a series of restrictive measures taken against China accordingly. It is hoped that the United States and China will meet each other halfway,' the ministry said in a statement. In early European trading, Germany's DAX added 0.8% to 23,847.16. In Paris, the CAC 40 surged 1.3% to 7,656.55. Britain's FTSE 100 gained 0.5% to 8,779.78. The futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.2%. Markets have settled somewhat after the upheavals of the Israel-Iran war and its aftermath. Worries about Trump's higher tariffs have receded since the president shocked the world in April with stiff proposed levies, but they have not disappeared. The wait is still on to see how big the tariffs will ultimately be, how much they will hurt the economy and how much they will push up inflation. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index lost 0.2% to 24,284.15, while the Shanghai Composite index gave up 0.7% to 3,424.23 after China reported that industrial profits slid 9.1% in May, the sharpest drop since last October. 'Beijing may have paused the worst of the trade fight with Washington, but the tariff scars are showing—and unless demand picks up or pricing stabilizes, the pressure on margins and business sentiment will linger,' Stephen Innes, Managing Partner at SPI Asset Management, said in a commentary. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index gained 1.4% to 40,150.79, as the government reported that consumer prices eased slightly in May. South Korea's KOSPI Composite Index fell 0.8% to 3,055.94, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.4% at 8,514.20. On Thursday, the S&P 500 climbed 0.8% and at 6,141.02 was sitting just 0.05% below its all-time closing high set in February. The index at the heart of many 401(k) accounts had dropped roughly 20% below its record during the spring on worries about Trump's tariffs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 0.9% and the Nasdaq composite gained 1%. Reports on Thursday added to evidence the U.S. economy is holding up despite higher tariffs and other challenges, though it has slowed. Orders for washing machines and other manufactured goods that last at least three years grew by more last month than economists expected. Another report said fewer U.S. workers filed for unemployment benefits last week, a potential signal of fewer layoffs. A third report said the U.S. economy shrank by more during the first three months of 2025 than earlier estimated. But many economists say those numbers were distorted by a surge in imports as companies tried to get ahead of tariffs. They're expecting a better performance in upcoming months. In other dealings on Friday, the U.S. benchmark crude gained 46 cents to $65.70 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, added 41 cents to $67.10 per barrel.
24 minutes ago
EU leaders seek a big boost in Ukraine military support but make little progress on Russia sanctions
BRUSSELS -- European Union leaders on Thursday called for even greater efforts to help meet Ukraine's pressing military needs, and expressed support for the country's quest to join their ranks, but they made little headway with new sanctions against Russia. At a summit in Brussels, the leaders said it was important to deliver more 'air defense and anti-drone systems, and large-caliber ammunition, to help Ukraine, as it exercises its inherent right to self-defense, to protect its citizens and territory against Russia's intensified daily attacks.' They also underlined the need to help support Ukraine's defense industry, which can make weapons and ammunition more quickly and cheaply than its European counterparts. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took part in the meeting via videolink. Russian forces have made slow gains at some points on the roughly 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line, but it has been costly in terms of troop casualties and damaged equipment. The outnumbered Ukrainian army has relied heavily on drones to keep the Russians back. Months of U.S.-led international efforts to stop the more than three years of war have failed. As hostilities have ground on, the two sides have continued to swap prisoners of war. The leaders said the bloc 'remains steadfast in its support for Ukraine's path towards EU membership.' That message comes a day after NATO leaders refrained from putting a reference to Ukraine's hopes of joining the military organization in their summit statement, due in large part to U.S. resistance. The EU is working on yet another raft of sanctions against Russia, but the leaders made little headway. A key aim is to make further progress in blocking Russia's 'shadow fleet' of oil tankers and their operators from earning more revenue for Moscow's war effort. The EU has slapped several rounds of sanctions on Russia since President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. More than 2,400 officials and entities – usually government agencies, banks and organizations – have been hit. The statement on Ukraine was agreed by 26 of the 27 member countries. Hungary objected, as it has often done. At a NATO summit on Wednesday, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said that 'NATO has no business in Ukraine. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, neither Russia. My job is to keep it as it is.' The leaders also heard from Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on ongoing trade talks with the U.S. aimed at warding off President Donald Trump's threat of new tariffs, or import taxes, on European goods coming into the US. Von der Leyen said at a post-summit news conference that she and Trump had agreed at the Group of Seven summit 'to speed up the work' ahead of a July 9 deadline. Trump at first laid out a 20% tariff and then threatened to raise that to 50% after expressing dissatisfaction with the pace of talks. Those would come in addition to a 25% tariff on cars from all countries and 50% on steel from all countries, measures that would hit the EU's auto industry. Von der Leyen said that Europe had received the latest proposal from the U.S. and was analyzing it. She said the commission, which handles trade for the 27 EU member states, preferred a deal but was also preparing a list of U.S. goods that could be hit with 'rebalancing' tariffs. 'We are ready for a deal,' she said. "At the same time, we are preparing for the possibility that no satisfactory agreement is reached, this is why we consulted on a rebalancing list and we will defend the European interest as needed, in short, all options remain on the table.' Trump has rejected an EU offer of zero tariffs on both industrial goods and cars, while the EU has rejected changes in the regulation of digital companies and in its national value-added taxes, which economists say are trade neutral because they are levied on imports and domestic goods alike. French President Emmanuel Macron said he told Trump in a phone call during the EU summit that the Europeans were 'willing to find an agreement.' 'But we don't want to reach a deal at all costs,' Macron warned. U.S. tariffs would 'inevitably' lead to retaliatory measures on U.S. goods on the European market, he said. The trade issue is crucial for the EU's trade dependent economy; the commission's forecast for modest growth of 0.9% in GDP this year was based on an assumption the EU could negotiate its tariff down to Trump's 10% baseline minimum for almost all trade partners. In other developments, the EU leaders deplored 'the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, the unacceptable number of civilian casualties and the levels of starvation.' They called 'on Israel to fully lift its blockade.' They also said that their European Council 'takes note' of a report saying that there are signs that Israel's actions in Gaza are violating human rights obligations in an agreement governing EU-Israel ties. The report was debated by EU foreign ministers on Monday, but the bloc is divided over what to do about it. The ministers will discuss the issue again at their next meeting on July 15. Suspending ties, including on trade, would require a unanimous decision, which is likely impossible to obtain from staunch backers of Israel like Austria, Germany and Hungary. The head of the main Greens party group in the European Parliament, Bas Eickhout said that 'the EU is losing all credibility in light of the devastating conflicts raging in the Middle East,' and insisted that the Association Agreement must be suspended.
Yahoo
24 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Karoline Leavitt's ‘Have To Save Face' Jab Instantly Backfires
Critics mockingly declared the Trump White House an irony-free zone on Thursday following talk of totalitarian regime tactics by press secretary Karoline Leavitt. Leavitt was asked during a briefing to respond to remarks from Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who in his first comments since the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities and the announcement of a ceasefire with Israel had defiantly declared that Iran would 'never surrender' to the United States. 'Look, we saw the Ayatollah's video, and when you have a totalitarian regime, you have to save face,' Leavitt replied. 'I think any commonsense, open-minded person knows the truth about the precision strikes on Saturday night. They were wildly successful,' she added, despite ongoing debate over the actual claimed effectiveness in destroying Iran's capabilities to build nuclear weapons. The 'totalitarian regime' having to 'save face' line was too ironic for many critics online: Dem Sen. Patty Murray Trolls Trump With Hilariously Brutal Taste Of His Own Medicine Dr. Oz's 'Completely Incoherent' Credit Card Flub Has Critics Saying, What?!? 'Doesn't Take An Einstein': Jasmine Crockett Hits Trump With Sharp Melania Swipe
