Snow falls over a bonfire in Dalveen, Queensland
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ABC News
2 hours ago
- ABC News
Wet weather forecast for spring as Indian Ocean climate driver emerges
A wet finish to the year is increasingly favoured across Australia as a major climate driver emerges for the first time in three years. During recent weeks, changes in ocean temperatures show the development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — the wet phase of the Indian Ocean, which rivals La Niña for its positive impact on Australia's rainfall. Negative IODs in the past have contributed to most of Australia's wettest winters and springs on record, including all four previous episodes this century in 2010, 2016, 2021 and 2022. A negative IOD refers to a prolonged period of at least eight weeks of warmer waters near Indonesia and cooler waters off the Horn of Africa. While this may seem inconsequential, the change corresponds with a shift in the overlying pressure and wind regime — specifically, there is a moist air blowing towards Australia's longitudes from the tropical Indian Ocean. In a similar vein to a La Niña phase of the Pacific Ocean, this influx of humid winds promotes the formation of cloud and rain. What is critical for the continued evolution of an event and its eventual impact on the weather is that the changes to the ocean and atmosphere reinforce each other through a positive feedback loop — a coupling that can preserve the anomalous state for months. Negative IODs, and their counterpart positive IODs, on average occur every one in five years. However, the Indian Ocean has been exceptionally active during the past decade, with only three years (2017, 2002 and 2024) remaining neutral. The prospect of a negative IOD returning in 2025 was first flagged by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) back in autumn when their long-range modelling was showing the driver would likely develop at some point in winter. Despite little observational verification, the BOM's modelling consistently stuck to that prediction through June. However, water temperatures off the east coast of Africa began to drop notably in July. The index used to measure the state of the Indian Ocean reflected this change, and its latest weekly value sits at -0.6 degrees Celsius, below the negative IOD threshold of -0.4°C for the second consecutive week. However, for 2025 to officially become a negative IOD year, the index is required to remain below -0.4°C for at least another six weeks. That scenario now appears increasingly likely with the latest modelling showing the index falling to around -1°C in September before gradually climbing back to neutral in December, easily sufficient time to have a lasting impression on the nation's weather. The BOM's modelling shows negative IOD conditions will intensify further into early spring and remain until December. The life span of an IOD event is shorter than Pacific El Niño-La Niña episodes, which normally last about nine months. A typical IOD will develop in winter, quickly peak, then decay by early summer when the monsoon erodes any influence on tropical Indian Ocean winds. The impacts, shown in the table below, are most pronounced in spring when the national average rainfall is on average 36 per cent higher than during neutral years, calculated using 13 negative IOD events from 1960 to 2024. Winter sees an average 20 per cent boost to precipitation, and by summer it falls to 13.9 per cent. In terms of spatial extent, negative IODs can lift rainfall across most of the country, as illustrated by the map below. The greatest impact lies over the south-east inland where the mean across nine classic events is in the ninth decile — rainfall totals in the top 20 per cent of all years. However, not all events are the same, and considering many negative IODs coincide with La Niña, 2025 rainfall may not be as widespread or intense. So what can we expect during the coming months? The most accurate forecast for seasonal weather patterns is now model data, as opposed to the old method, a few decades ago, of using past years as a guide. The BOM's latest outlook for spring shows a 70 to 80 per cent chance of above-median rain across most of central and eastern Australia, a forecast closely matching a typical negative IOD footprint. Another impact of a negative IOD is on temperatures. Climate change ensures most Australian seasons are comfortably warmer than normal, however, during extended wet periods, the additional cloud cover can lower daytime temperatures. Again, the seasonal outlook concurs with this past trend, showing parts of Australia's central and eastern areas are favoured to record below-median maximums from August to November.
ABC News
13 hours ago
- ABC News
BTN Newsbreak 05/07/2025
GREENWASHING FAST FASHION Shein, which is one of the world's biggest online retailers, has been slapped with a $1.7 million Greenwashing fine for misleading customers on how environmentally friendly its products are. Shein, famous for it's ultra-cheap, trendy clothing, drops more than 9000 new products on its website each day and rakes in about $38 billion a year. But how good is all this fast-fashion for the environment? Well, according to Italy's competition authority or the AGCM, not good. See, it's just fined Shien about $1.7 Million dollars for greenwashing. That's basically when a product or a company is made to appear more environmentally friendly than it actually is. The AGCM reckons Shein hasn't been completely upfront or honest about its environmental impact and has been misleading customers with things like, claiming certain clothing lines were more sustainable than they actually were, that some items were fully recyclable when they weren't, and have also been vague about their commitment to reduce carbon emissions. The AGCM says this a big problem because it means customers aren't being told the real environmental cost before they buy. So in response, Shein has said they've improved their website to make sure their environmental claims are clearer and easy to understand. NSW WEATHER Parts of NSW have been hit with wild weather this week, and emergency and flood warnings are still in place for parts of the state. Residents in the state's Upper Hunter region, Northern Tablelands and Mid North Coast have experienced everything from snow, to winds, and heavy rain. The storms have impacted trees and powerlines and as a result, left thousands of people without electricity. The weather has also damaged buildings, including a school in Kempsey, where students were disrupted from sitting their HSC trials because their roof was left looking like this! PLASTICS TREATY A big meeting is happening in Switzerland where representatives from 179 countries are trying to agree on a global treaty to stop plastic pollution. Yep, plastics are a big problem for our environment. And while they might not seem like a big deal since most of us use plastic's everyday, experts say we're using and throwing out way too much of it. In fact, the world pumps out over 350 million tonnes of plastic waste each year, and that number is predicted to triple by 2060! It's why representatives from around the world are coming together to finish making a global treaty to control plastic waste. During the 10 day meeting, they'll talk about ways plastic's can be designed to be used for longer, what substitutes are out there and how to stop plastic's from ending up in the environment. It's something these environmentalists hope the UN figure out soon before it's too late. ALLIGATOR IN POOL First up, to a little situation in the US. Yeah, that's an alligator! This sheriff's deputy in Florida managed to wrangle the gator with his bare hands, and cool as a cucumber, took it out to his cop car, to be relocated. SPAIN HEATWAVE Now to a water park for dogs, in Spain. As the country sweats through its second heatwave of the summer, people and their pets have been looking for ways to keep cool. In some areas, temperatures have reached 42 degrees! VOLCANO ERUPTS And finally to a huge volcano erupting in Russia, sending ash 6 kilometres into the sky. The Krasheninnikov volcano hasn't erupted in hundreds of years, some records say 600, others closer to 500. Either way, it's been a long time. Experts reckon it's connected to last week's 8.8 magnitude earthquake in the region.
ABC News
20 hours ago
- ABC News
Woman still missing amid NSW floods
A woman is still missing and community members are rallying together as flooding continues across parts of New South Wales.
