What Rafael Devers' massive contract means for Giants now and in the future

San Francisco Chronicle​

4 hours ago

Once Sunday's blockbuster trade was completed, Rafael Devers became the highest-paid player in San Francisco Giants history.
Devers' 10-year, $313.5 million contract takes the throne briefly occupied by Willy Adames' seven-year, $182 million deal. And with the trade, president of baseball operations Buster Posey has made a pretty decisive U-turn from spending cautiously into fearlessly investing in the 'memory-making business' he sought to foster when he took on this job.
The Giants, a team built around pitching and defense, have now invested roughly $696 million in an offensive core of Devers, Adames, third baseman Matt Chapman and outfielder Jung Hoo Lee.
Adding Devers immediately makes this team a stronger contender in the National League, not just this year but down the line. To get the deal done this early in the year, the Giants had to take on all of Devers' contract. The price tag is market value for a hitter of his caliber; Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw put it best during an interview on the Sunday Night Baseball broadcast, observing, 'I'd consider Raffy probably one of the top 10 hitters in the game, at worst.'
The Devers contract should not prohibit Posey from making more headline moves by the MLB trade deadline on July 31.
Nearly halfway into the second year of Devers' deal, the Giants take on approximately $250 million for its remaining 8.5 years. The contract features annual deferrals of $7.5 million, which are to be paid between 2034 and 2043. The Red Sox are responsible for the deferrals for the time spent with them, before the trade; the Giants will pay a prorated amount for this year's deferral plus take on responsibility for the subsequent seasons. As the trade happened 80 days into the season, that means the Giants should be on the hook for $4.3 million of the 2025 deferral.
With the Boston Red Sox taking on all of Jordan Hicks' four-year, $44 million contract and with the subtraction of some of LaMonte Wade Jr.'s owed $5 million when he was traded to the Los Angeles Angels last week, the Giants added approximately $5 million to their 2025 payroll for Devers' services this year.
Valuation of the deal for the competitive balance tax on Devers' contract comes out to approximately $29 million annually. For 2025, it appears that the Giants still remain under the competitive balance tax threshold.
Devers earns $27.5 million in 2025 and 2026, $31 million each year from 2027-30 and $29 million per season from 2031-33. The contract is not only the richest in Giants history, but one of the largest contracts in baseball. The $313.5 million total ranks as the 15th highest total commitment among active players and the $31.35 average annual value is 18th largest.
In terms of AAV, Devers' contract is comparable to Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager, San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado and Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa.
Like many long-term contracts, there is perhaps some concern over the back end of Devers' deal. At 28, the Giants are getting a star hitter in his prime, but are committed to a large sum yearly for a player who might ultimately profile as the everyday designated hitter in San Francisco. Devers is a third baseman by trade, but five-time Gold Glover Chapman has that position locked down through 2030.
Among the statistical tools projecting player performance, FanGraphs' ZiPS projects Devers to see a sharp decline at the start of next decade, no matter if he plays DH or embraces a position change to first base. Projections say he'll finish each year between 2025 and 2028 with at least a 3.0 fWAR but fall below 2.0 fWAR BY 2031, his age-34 season, with two more years to go on his deal.
To that end, concerns over Devers' long-term fit pale in comparison to the value his bat adds now. Signed through his age-36 season, Devers may even prove to be a bargain as the Giants haven't had a slugger capable of hitting at least 30 home runs yearly since Barry Bonds. In this case, a few uncomfortable years down the line seem to be a price worth paying for getting a star in his prime.