I spent 16 hours at a tech investment banking conference and there was a sense of disbelief Trump has been so bad for Wall Street.

Business Insider

26-04-2025

At the closing party this week for the Jefferies Private Growth Conference held on the rooftop of a Santa Monica hotel, bankers and venture capitalists lined up to see a tarot card reader.
Perhaps they were eager to talk to anyone who could provide clairvoyance after weeks of market turmoil sparked by President Donald Trump's trade war.
Hopes that dealmaking and IPOs would roar back to life in 2025 were suddenly dashed on Liberation Day, and no one knows how long the uncertainty will last. (The Trump administration has argued that while tariffs inflict short-term pain, they will result in greater long-term prosperity.)
"Everything right now is impacted by complete uncertainty," said Jason Greenberg, co-head of Global Tech, Media and Telecom Investment Banking at Jefferies. "If you told me what the objectives are, normally I can say, 'OK, here's what's probably likely to happen.' But I have no idea."
This beachside conference, hosted by the investment bank Jefferies, brings together hundreds of bankers, VCs, and tech founders who were supposed to be here to greenlight deals. Instead, the tariffs have caused a dreaded holding pattern.
"It's frustrating," said Greenberg. "There's a plethora of late-stage companies that are IPO ready. If it weren't for the tariffs, you would've seen an enormous number of IPOs this year."
The bankers I spoke with said the only comparison to the current moment they can remember is the beginning of Covid, when so much seemed unknown. That this crisis is completely self-inflicted makes it worse, especially since many here hoped Trump would be a boon for Wall Street, these bankers noted.
"I thought his tariff talk was simply somewhat rabble-rousing," said one banker who asked to remain anonymous. "I don't think anyone could have predicted this."
Just over a month ago that Google announced it was buying Wiz for $32 billion, exactly the sort of blockbuster acquisition bankers hoped would spur more dealmaking under a more business-friendly administration. But then came Liberation Day, and the market uncertainty.
"There's a little bit of disbelief," another banker said. "If you talk to investors, sponsors, and private growth investors, there's a sense this can't be for real. This cannot keep going."
When asked if he knew any companies that would benefit from the tariffs, he replied, "No one is excited about tariffs."
"The timing couldn't have been worse," said a third banker who asked his name not be used, who said he had four deals ready to close that are now all paused. "We don't know the period of uncertainty. It could last for two days, or it could last for a year. We could wake up tomorrow and Trump could say, 'never mind, it's a joke,' or he could say 'we're going to war with China.'"
Looking for silver linings
Bankers usually only get paid when deals are completed, so it is their job to remain sanguine even in the face of frustration.
So, despite the rockiness, the bankers I spoke to all expressed hope that this trade war could end just as quickly as it began.
"No one here is feeling doom and gloom," said Jimmy Williams, Jefferies' Head of West Coast Technology, Media, and Telecommunications Equity Markets. "I think most people look at all this as just a blip."
The IPO window could open again in as little as a few weeks, said Williams.
"I don't think that you need a China-US trade deal inked before people are willing to take the risk," Williams said. "I just think that you need the expectation that there will be some negotiated agreement in the future."
There is also a strong economy, at least for now, and the excitement around AI, which people here hope can fuel a once-in-a-generation bonanza of wealth.
"Some of these companies are growing at paces we've never seen before early in their life cycle," said Cameron Lester, Co-Head of Technology, Media and Telecom Investment Banking at Jefferies. "There's a belief that we'll get back to business."
One of Lester's clients is so eager to go public that its board convenes a meeting every 48 hours to assess market conditions.
"There are a lot of high-quality technology companies looking to raise capital and/or explore M&A," Lester said. "They just need the market not to be gyrating like this."
Faire, a wholesale marketplace, has been on the short list of companies expected to go public when the IPO window opens. Jason Lee, its chief financial officer, was at the conference to meet with bankers and investors and said he's trying to take the tariffs in stride.
"We focus on what we can control," Lee said. "The markets won't be shut forever."