
World Bank sharply downgrades forecast for global economic growth to 2.3%
Citing 'a substantial rise in trade barriers' but without mentioning Mr Trump by name, the 189-country lender predicted that the US economy – the world's largest – would grow half as fast (1.4%) this year as it did in 2024 (2.8%).
That marks a downgrade from the 2.3% US growth it had forecast back for 2025 back in January.
The bank also lopped 0.4 percentage points off its forecast for global growth this year. It now expects the world economy to expand just 2.3% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024.
In a forward to the latest version of the twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects report, World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill wrote that the global economy has missed its chance for the 'soft landing' – slowing enough to tame inflation without generating serious pain – it appeared headed for just six months ago.
'The world economy today is once more running into turbulence,' Mr Gill wrote.
'Without a swift course correction, the harm to living standards could be deep.'

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Telegraph
33 minutes ago
- Telegraph
It would be catastrophic for America if Trump doesn't forgive Musk
It would have been hard to miss the news this month of the spat between President Trump and Elon Musk. It 'escalated quickly', as the kids say, with Elon accusing Trump of hiding his associations with Jeffrey Epstein and Trump floating the possibility of cutting off Musk's federal contracts. The dust-up ended with Musk returning, tail between his legs, to say that he was sorry. This is the second time that Musk has been reminded that the forces of Maga have more political heft than the Silicon Valley tech bros. The last time the Maga-hammer came down on Elon, it was to remind him that Trump supporters voted against increased immigration after the Tesla boss pushed for the issuance of more H1B visas to foreign workers in the technology sector. This new conflict has reignited the debates between Maga populism and Silicon Valley libertarianism. While the dispute around H1B visas may have been clear-cut – the Trump ticket does not support policies like this – the issues that led to the recent clash are far less so. Musk was raising concerns around government spending that are becoming more relevant by the day. At the centre of the dispute was the so-called 'Big Beautiful Bill', a large piece of tax and spending legislation making its way through Congress. Musk, who has spent the last few months hacking away at government spending through the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge), called the bill a 'disgusting abomination'. Unlike the printing of more H1B visas, Musk and his Doge programme were certainly on the ballot when Americans voted for Trump as president. In a speech to the Economic Club of New York in September 2024, then-candidate Trump announced that he would create a government efficiency commission that would undertake a 'complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government' and propose 'drastic reforms.' Beyond this, however, the issue of government borrowing is now an acute one. Just last month chief executive of JP Morgan Chase Jamie Dimon warned that mounting debts might 'crack' the US Treasury market, which prompted US treasury secretary Scott Bessent to insist that the United States is 'never going to default'. In April, The New York Times ran a shocking headline: 'Sell-off in US Bonds and Dollar Raises Questions About 'Safe Haven' Status'. In times past, major American newspapers would be cautious about playing politics with the American financial markets. But the pressures are becoming too obvious to ignore. To get a sense of how severe this is becoming, consider the fact that the interest rate on a 10-year Treasury bond is currently 4.47 per cent. Meanwhile, the yield on a German 10-year bund is 2.53 per cent. One of the reasons that US dollar assets are so popular with investors is that they are typically confident that borrowing rates in the United States will remain low and the dollar will remain strong. This is no longer the case. Interest rates are so high in the United States that American firms are now starting to borrow in Europe. These arrangements, which have become known in financial markets as 'reverse Yankee deals', are up 34 per cent in 2025 versus 2024 to a total of €83 billion. Corporate giants, like Pfizer and Alphabet, are dumping dollar loans and borrowing in euro instead. No wonder senior bankers at the European Central Bank are seeing this as an opportunity to boost the role of the euro. What we are witnessing are some of the most dangerous developments for the dollar-based financial system since Nixon ended the convertibility of the US dollar to gold in 1971. There are multiple trends feeding into this fragility – from the weaponisation of the currency when Russian reserves were seized in 2022 to the chaos unleashed by the Trump tariffs – but it seems unlikely that any of these factors would lead to a sharp increase in interest rates unless there was already such a large debt pile. Musk and Trump need each other. Elon needs his friend in the White House to ensure that his business model, which relies heavily on federal contracts, does not collapse. And Donald needs Elon to keep his administration's eye on the ball when it comes to economic reform. It seems unlikely that Musk will be able to reverse the Big Beautiful Bill. But he should continue to be a voice in the administration because he is performing a key role: highlighting what a dangerous place the country is in financially – before it is too late.


Reuters
2 hours ago
- Reuters
Earthquake worsens Myanmar's economic decline, World Bank says
June 12 (Reuters) - Myanmar's beleaguered economy is expected to contract by 2.5 percent in the 2025/26 fiscal year largely due to the devastating impact of a powerful earthquake in late March, the World Bank said in a report on Thursday. The World Bank said direct damages to property and infrastructure from the 7.7 magnitude quake were estimated at $11 billion, or 14% of the nation's gross domestic product, estimating that economic output would be about $2 billion lower than it otherwise would have been because of the quake. The quake affected more than 17 million people, with nine million severely impacted, the World Bank said. The death toll has topped 3,700, according to Myanmar's ruling junta. "The earthquake caused significant loss of life and displacement, while exacerbating already difficult economic conditions, further testing the resilience of Myanmar's people," Melinda Good, Division Director for Thailand and Myanmar, said a statement. "Recovery efforts are essential to help the most vulnerable populations." A junta spokesman did not respond to a call from Reuters seeking comment on the report. In December, the World Bank had projected Myanmar's economy would shrink 1% in the 2024/25 fiscal year that ended in March due to the severe flooding in the country. Myanmar has been in turmoil since the military seized power in a coup in February 2021, sparking a civil war. There have been international efforts to stall the conflict, but rebels have accused the junta of breaching a ceasefire called to allow relief efforts to reach earthquake-affected areas. The hardest-hit regions of Mandalay and Naypyidaw were expected to lose up to one-third of their production between April and September before a partial recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, the World Bank said. The earthquake could increase the national poverty rate by 2.8 percentage points, pushing more households into poverty, the report stated. A survey before the quake estimated the poverty rate at 31% in 2024. "Myanmar's compounding crises have put household coping mechanisms under severe stress," said Kim Edwards, Senior Economist and Program Leader for Thailand and Myanmar.


Reuters
4 hours ago
- Reuters
Dollar slides on easing trade tensions, Fed expectations
SINGAPORE, June 12 (Reuters) - The dollar slid on Thursday on further signs that U.S. President Donald Trump may adopt a softer stance in tariff negotiations and heightened expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Trump said on Wednesday he would be willing to extend a July 8 deadline for completing trade talks with countries before higher U.S. tariffs are imposed. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested earlier that the Trump administration may offer extensions from a July trade deal deadline for countries negotiating in good faith. The remarks renewed dollar weakness, lifting the euro to a seven-week high. It last bought $1.1525. The greenback lost 0.43% against the yen and 0.34% against the Swiss franc to last trade at 143.98 and 0.81725, respectively. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar fell to its weakest since April 22 at 98.327. "It's hard to tell whether there is a masterplan behind this, but common sense would suggest that President Trump is trying to create a level of urgency in terms of trade negotiations," said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank. "I think the market, in terms of the size of the moves, is becoming a little bit more sanguine about what this all means... the market is also very wary that the picture could change quite dramatically in a week's time or two weeks' time." Elsewhere, sterling was up 0.38% to $1.3588. The Australian dollar ticked up 0.05% to $0.6506, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.1% to $0.6033. On Wednesday, data showed U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in May, leading traders to ramp up bets of a Fed cut as early as September and keeping pressure on the dollar. Thursday's producer price index data will be the next test for markets. The offshore yuan was last a touch stronger at 7.1953 per dollar, helped slightly by news that a fragile truce in the U.S.-China trade war was restored as both sides reached a deal following talks in London this week. "Full details have not been published, and it remains unclear if the talks brought the two largest economies closer to productive cooperation," said Mantas Vanagas, senior economist at Westpac. The euro was clinging to strong gains on Thursday, having jumped against most other currencies in the previous session. Against the yen, the common currency last stood at 165.88 having risen to its firmest since October at 166.42 on Thursday. It was up 0.13% against the Aussie , extending a 0.9% gain from Thursday, and had also touched a one-month high of 84.88 pence overnight . While there was no immediate trigger behind the moves, analysts say the euro has over the past week drawn support from hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) rhetoric. Last week, the ECB cut interest rates as expected but hinted at a pause in its year-long easing cycle after inflation finally returned to its 2% target. "Expectations of fewer previously expected ECB rate cuts have lent some support to the euro," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. That contrasts with the likely resumption of a Fed easing cycle later this year, and as Trump has repeatedly called for U.S. rates to be lowered. Trump said last week that a decision on the next Fed chief will be coming soon, adding that a good Fed chair would lower interest rates. The euro has risen nearly 11% for the year thus far, helped in part by a weaker dollar and as investors pour money into European markets in a move away from the U.S.