Can Scottie Scheffler lose this Open Championship?

New York Times

19-07-2025

PORTRUSH, Northern Ireland — Just past 6 p.m. on Saturday, after Scottie Scheffler's approach into Royal Portrush's 11th hole disappeared in the wavy, wispy native area left of the green, a few mighty souls saw an opportunity. Maybe some hope. A glitch in Scheffler's simulation. Breaking decorum, they cheered the shot's demise.
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Then Scheffler arrived, devoid of empathy.
A hack out of the straw.
A 10-foot par putt.
A little half-wave for the applause that followed.
The 153rd Open Championship, again, felt like it was over, no matter how many holes were left to play. Hell, it felt like it was over the prior afternoon, when Scheffler delivered a masterclass second-round 64 to take a one-shot lead at 10 under midway through the tournament. It's all been too easy. The three-time major winner is, in his present form, so good, and so dialed, that it is impossible — or impractical — to imagine anything going awry.
Now, coming to Sunday, no one this side of Killarney is expecting anything other than a runaway victory. Scheffler's first claim to Champion Golfer of the Year. His third leg of the career Grand Slam. His latest coup de grâce.
Scheffler followed Friday's show with a bogey-free third-round 67 and, even on a bizarrely idyllic day — nary a threat of rain — drew blackout curtains on this tournament. All that's left is the Claret Jug, a chisel, and space for 17 letters.
Some trivia. How many alliterative names appear on the jug?
Three are easy. Ernie Els, David Duval, Sam Snead. Major kudos if you nailed the fourth — Harold Hilton, the 1892 and 1897 winner.
This is what the tournament has devolved into. Notes for the appendix. Scheffler has been so unrepentant in his dominance that all involved are resigned to the inevitable.
'Four shots behind, kind of like playing for second,' said Haotong Li, who's paired with Scheffler in Sunday's final round.
You've got to respect the candor. And the acceptance of reality.
Biding his time.
After six pars, Scottie has an eagle in round three. pic.twitter.com/y8JK4KwhjX
— The Open (@TheOpen) July 19, 2025
Scheffler has successfully converted each of his last nine outright 54-hole leads on the PGA Tour. He is 3-for-3 when converting 54-hole leads in majors.
Is any other outcome plausible?
Not really.
Matt Fitzpatrick was paired with Scheffler on Saturday and opened the day trailing by a stroke. He shot even par and now trails by five. When Golf Channel's Todd Lewis asked the 2022 U.S. Open champion what he's expecting from Scheffler in the fourth round, Fitzpatrick took a breath, shook his head and resorted to wishful thinking.
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'Well, hopefully a blowup,' Fitzpatrick said.
Rory McIlroy, hero of Portrush and the week's protagonist, began Saturday trailing by seven shots and knowing he needed to deliver a day to remember. He did the job — shooting a third-round 66, matching the second-best round of the day behind Russell Henley's 65. And what did McIlroy get for his efforts? He gained one stroke on Scheffler.
He now sits tied for fourth with Tyrrell Hatton, Harris English and Chris Gotterup, six shots behind Scheffler.
'I don't think it's a surprise,' McIlroy said. 'Everyone's seen the way he's played over the last two or three years. He's just so solid. He doesn't make mistakes.'
This was, of course, coming from the same McIlroy who blew multiple tires on his way to a Masters victory a few months ago.
'There doesn't seem to be any weakness there,' McIlroy said. 'Whenever you're trying to chase down a guy like that, it's hard to do.'
That dynamic? It's turned this week into a stress test for everyone else. Every mistake is magnified by the realization that one player on the course won't do the same. McIlroy opened Saturday 3 under through four holes, whipping up a frenzy and making his legion of supporters want to believe. But holes Nos. 5 and 7, two great birdie opportunities, came and went without him capitalizing. It was clear, right then and there, that he'd likely not do enough to rattle any cages on this day. To make a real move, against this version of Scheffler, at least, McIlroy needed to do something otherworldly — a 61, 62.
There are no margins.
Hatton knows. Coming off the best major finish of his career at Oakmont a few weeks ago, he arrived at Portrush looking to win. The 33-year-old has played well, firing rounds of 68-69-68, but every minor miscue has been punished. In Friday's second round, he followed his best drive of the day by missing the green with a lob wedge and settling for par. As long as Scheffler's on the course, that might as well be a bogey.
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How's Hatton feeling?
'Six shots behind,' he shrugged Saturday, 'A long way back.'
It's not only that Scheffler is winning, it's that he refuses to offer anyone else any hope. He avoids all the traps, finds greens in regulation, and hits the ball closer than everyone else. Through three rounds, he leads the field in both strokes gained approaching the green (+2.69) and strokes gained putting (+2.58). That's good living.
'He's just in his own world and nothing's going to bother him,' said Xander Schauffele, the 2024 Open champion, currently sitting in eighth place with a seven-shot deficit. 'He gets to that place often.'
And he's there again.
The largest leads lost in Open Championship history came via Macdonald Smith in 1925 and Jean Van de Velde in 1999. Each entered Sunday leading by five strokes. Smith shot a final-round 82. Van de Velde shot a 77.
So what, we wonder, is reasonably the highest score Scheffler could shoot Sunday? Even par? Maybe 72? A shocking 73?
Even then, someone would still need to come get him. It all feels so far-fetched.
This is, we dare say, over.
S-C-O-T-T-I-E S-C-H-E-F-F-L-E-R