The 2026 Senate map is tough for Democrats, but Republicans have their own headaches
Democrats still face an uphill battle. They need to net four seats to retake the majority, and most of the 2026 contests are in states that Republican President Donald Trump easily won last November.
But Democrats see reasons for hope in Republicans' challenges. They include a nasty primary in Texas that could jeopardize a seat Republicans have held for decades. In North Carolina and Georgia, the GOP still lacks a clear field of candidates. Trump's influence dials up the uncertainty as he decides whether to flex his influential endorsement to stave off intraparty fights.
Republicans stress that it remains early in the election cycle and say there is still plenty of time for candidates to establish themselves and Trump to wade in. The president, said White House political director James Blair, has been working closely with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D.
'I won't get ahead of the president but look, him and leader Thune have been very aligned. I expect them to be aligned and work closely.' he said.
Trump's timing, allies say, also reflects the far more disciplined approach by him and his political operation, which are determined for Republicans to gain seats in both the Senate and the House.
Here's what's happening in some key Senate races:
An ugly Texas brawl Democrats have long dreamed of winning statewide office in this ruby red state. Could a nasty GOP primary be their ticket?
National Republicans and GOP Senate strategists are ringing alarm bells amid concerns that state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is facing a bevy of personal and ethical questions, could prevail over Sen. John Cornyn for the nomination.
They fear Paxton would be a disastrous general election candidate, forcing Republicans to invest tens of millions of dollars they believe would be better spent in other states.
Texans for a Conservative Majority, a super political action committee supporting Cornyn, a onetime Trump critic, began airing television ads this past week promoting his support for Trump's package of tax breaks and spending cuts.
Don't expect the upbeat tone from the pro-Cornyn super PAC to hold long. Paxton was acquitted after a Republican-led impeachment trial in 2023 over allegations of bribery and abuse of office, which also exposed an extramarital affair. His wife, Angela, filed for divorce on July 10, referring to 'recent discoveries' in announcing her decision to end her marriage of 38 years 'on biblical grounds.'
'Ken Paxton has embarrassed himself, his family, and we look forward to exposing just how bad he's embarrassed our state in the coming months,' said Aaron Whitehead, the super PAC's executive director. Trump adviser Chris LaCivita, who comanaged Trump's 2024 campaign, is advising the group.
But Cornyn has had a cool relationship with Trump over the years, while Paxton is a longtime Trump ally. And Paxton raised more than three times as much as Cornyn in the second quarter, $2.9 million compared with $804,000, according to Federal Elections Commission reports.
Rep. Wesley Hunt is also weighing a run.
Will Trump be persuaded to endorse or will he choose to steer clear?
Will North Carolina have a Trump on the ballot?
The surprise retirement announcement by two-term Sen. Thom Tillis has set off a frenzied search for a replacement in a state widely seen as Democrats' top pickup opportunity. He had repeatedly clashed with Trump, including over Medicaid changes in the tax cut bill, leading the president to threaten to back a primary challenger.
All eyes are now on Lara Trump, the president's daughter-in-law, who is mulling whether to run in her home state as other potential candidates stand by.
A familiar national Republican face as co-chair of the Republican National Committee during Trump's 2024 campaign, Lara Trump is now a Fox News Channel host. She also had been a visible surrogate during previous campaigns, often promoting her North Carolina roots and the fact that she named her daughter Carolina.
Having a Trump on the ballot could boost a party that has struggled to motivate its most fervent base when Donald Trump is not running. But Lara Trump currently lives in Florida and has so far sounded muted on the prospect of a Senate run.
Other potential contenders include RNC chair Michael Whatley, who led North Carolina's GOP before taking the national reins and is considered a strong fundraiser and Trump loyalist, and first-term Reps. Pat Harrigan and Brad Knott. While Lara Trump and Whatley are better known nationally, Harrigan is a West Point graduate and Knott is a former federal prosecutor.
Democrats are waiting on a decision from former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper, who is seen as a formidable candidate by both parties in a state Trump carried by just 3.2 percentage points last year. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel has entered the race, but it's unclear what he would do if Cooper ran.
In Georgia, a pickup opportunity with no candidate yet
Republicans see Georgia and the seat held by Democrat Jon Ossoff as one of their best pickup opportunities. But the party remains in search of a well-known challenger after failing to persuade term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp to run.
A growing potential field includes Reps. Buddy Carter, Mike Collins and Rich McCormick, Insurance Commissioner John King and Derek Dooley, a former University of Tennessee football coach. The president is still meeting with possible candidates and is expected by many to wait to weigh in until his team has fully screened them and assessed their chances and after his budget priorities make their way through Congress.
Ossoff took in more than $10 million in the second quarter of the year, according to federal filings, after raising $11 million from January through March. He ended June with more than $15.5 million cash on hand.
That money will matter in what is sure to be an expensive general election. The Senate races in 2020, when Ossoff and Raphael Warnock narrowly won and flipped control to Democrats, cost more than $900 million combined.
Michigan GOP waits on TrumpRepublicans hope the retirement of Democratic Sen. Gary Peters and a crowded, expensive Democratic primary will help them capture a seat that has eluded them for more than three decades. Here, too, all eyes are on Trump.
Republicans are rallying around former Rep. Mike Rogers, who came within 20,000 votes in 2024 against then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin and had Trump's endorsement. Rogers now appears to have momentum behind him, with the support of Thune, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and former Trump campaign veterans LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio.
But other Republicans could complicate things. Rep. Bill Huizenga has said he is waiting for guidance from the president on whether he should run.
'When people are asking why haven't you announced or what are you going to do, it's like, look, I want to get the man's input, all right?' Huizenga told reporters last month. A spokesperson for Huizenga added that the congressman has spoken to Trump on the phone multiple times and has yet to be told not to run.
Still, White House officials have on more than one occasion encouraged Huizenga to stay in the House, according to one person familiar with the conversations who was not authorized to publicly discuss the private discussions and spoke only on condition of anonymity.
Democrats have their own messy primary, with state Sen. Mallory McMorrow up against Rep. Haley Stevens, state Rep. Joe Tate, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.
They were pleased to see that, even without any declared challengers, Rogers' main campaign account raised just $745,000 during the second quarter, lagging Huizenga and several Democrats. (He brought in another nearly $779,000 through a separate joint fundraising committee.) McMorrow, by comparison, raised more than $2.1 million.
In Louisiana, another Trump antagonist faces voters
Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy has faced scrutiny from his party, in no small part for his 2021 vote to convict Trump after the president's second impeachment. Will Trump seek retribution against the two-term senator or ultimately back him?
Though Cassidy already faces two primary challengers, Louisiana is a reliably Republican state, which Trump won last year by 22 percentage points. Democrats are hoping a strong contender — potentially former Gov. John Bel Edwards, who has attracted Republican votes in the past — might mount a competitive challenge.
Republicans are awaiting word on whether Rep. Julia Letlow will run. In May, Gov. Jeff Landry and Trump privately discussed the two-term congresswoman entering the race.
Letlow and Landry appeared together at a congressional fundraiser for her in Lafayette, outside her northeast Louisiana district, on June 30, fueling speculation about her plans.
The governor's discussion with Trump of a new challenger to Cassidy reflects the Trump base's unease with Cassidy, not simply over the impeachment vote, but also Cassidy's concerns about installing Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the nation's health secretary. Cassidy ultimately backed Kennedy, a move some saw as an effort to ease tensions.
Among Cassidy's Republican challengers so far are state Treasurer John Fleming and state Sen. Blake Miguez. Letlow, serving in the seat her husband held before he died of COVID-19, is considered a rising star in the Louisiana GOP.
A wavering incumbent in Iowa
Two-term Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has not said whether she plans to seek a third term.
Ernst would be expected to win in the state Trump carried by 13 percentage points last year. But she has come under some criticism from Iowa Republicans, including for saying she needed to hear more from Trump's pick for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, before committing to support his nomination amid allegations of sexual assault that Hegseth denied.
The senator, a combat veteran and sexual assault survivor, eventually voted to confirm him.
Though a final decision awaits, Ernst has named a 2026 campaign manager and has scheduled her annual Iowa fundraiser for October.
___ Beaumont reported from Des Moines, Iowa. Associated Press writers Joey Cappelletti and Seung Min Kim contributed to this report.
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