Nvidia earnings in focus as rising U.S. yields, debt rattle markets

Globe and Mail

23-05-2025

An earnings report from semiconductor giant and artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia (NVDA-Q) takes center stage for Wall Street in the coming week, as stocks hit a speed bump of worries over federal deficits driving up Treasury yields.
U.S. equities have pulled back this week after a torrid rally, as investors turned their attention to tax and spending legislation poised to swell the U.S. government's $36 trillion in debt. Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields rose amid the fiscal worries, with the 30-year yield topping 5% and hitting its highest level since late 2023.
Focus will shift to Wednesday's quarterly results from Nvidia, one of the world's largest companies by market value whose stock is a major influence on benchmark equity indexes.
'All eyes are going to be on Nvidia's report,' said Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services. 'The whole AI theme has been a major driver of the market and Nvidia is at the epicenter of that theme.'
Nvidia will be the last of the 'Magnificent Seven' megacap tech and growth companies to report results for this period. Their stocks have been mixed in 2025 after leading the market higher as a group in the last two years.
Nvidia shares are down 1% this year after soaring over 1,000% from late 2022 through the end of 2024 as its AI chip business spurred massive increases in revenue and profits.
Nvidia's first-quarter earnings likely jumped about 45% on revenue of $43.2 billion, analysts estimated in an LSEG poll.
After big tech companies earlier in the quarter signaled robust AI-related spending, Nvidia can deliver a strong message about AI and how companies' spending plans are faring, said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth.
'Nvidia can reinvigorate the enthusiasm for that theme.'
Nvidia, popular among smaller retail shareholders, is an investor sentiment indicator, said Wasif Latif, chief investment officer at Sarmaya Partners.
'Given its sheer size and attention that it is commanding, there are going to be a lot of people looking for what happens with the stock,' Latif said.
U.S.-China relations could also be in focus with Nvidia's report. The company said last month it would take $5.5 billion in charges after the U.S. government limited exports of its H20 artificial intelligence chip to China.
Trade developments have whipsawed the stock market this year, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump's April 2 announcement of sweeping tariffs on imports globally set off extreme asset price volatility.
Since then, Trump's easing of tariffs, especially a U.S.-China truce, has helped equities rebound. The benchmark S&P 500 index ended on Thursday down less than 1% for 2025, and down about 5% from its February record high.
Investors shifted attention this week to the fallout from Trump's fiscal plans, especially after Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating due to concerns about the nation's growing debt pile.
The U.S. House of Representatives, controlled by Trump's Republican party, on Thursday narrowly passed a tax and spending bill that would enact much of his agenda while adding an estimated $3.8 trillion to the debt over the next decade. The bill is heading to the U.S. Senate for its review.
Long-dated government bond yields have been rising globally amid a selloff. In the U.S., benchmark 10-year Treasury yields this week hit their highest since February. Bond prices move opposite to yields.
Higher yields can diminish the appeal of stocks as they represent higher borrowing costs for companies and consumers, while making fixed income assets relatively more attractive.
'The biggest concern from an investment standpoint is that higher rates represent more competition for equities,' said Horizon's Carlson. 'If rates continue to move higher, that is going to put increasing amounts of pressure on where investors are putting their money.'
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