How Collin Murray-Boyles & Ace Bailey Could Be In For A Draft Fight

Forbes

2 days ago

EVANSTON, ILLINOIS - JANUARY 29: Ace Bailey #4 of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights dunks the ball against ... More the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at Welsh-Ryan Arena on January 29, 2025 in Evanston, Illinois. (Photo by)
In the NBA draft, you'll always find teams with varying approaches to what type of player they're actively looking for.
Some teams might lean a bit on positional need (although virtually no one opts for that if the talent discrepancy is vast), others will prioritize "NBA readiness" (i.e. age), and some will look at physical tools more than they focus on floor game, and vice versa.
Given vast possibilities of how teams may rate a player, it should come as no surprise if teams differ greatly on Ace Bailey and Collin Murray-Boyles.
Broadly speaking, Bailey out of Rutgers projects as an offensive-minded forward, with significant scoring upside, despite measuring out worse than expected at the combine.
He averaged 17.6 points per game for the season, and was trusted to playing over 33 minutes per game, all while carrying a significant scoring responsibility.
Bailey's inside/outside offensive touch, as well as his age (he won't turn 19 until August 13th), are certainly attractive factors. Who wouldn't want to pick a player who could become a type of version of Carmelo Anthony one day?
Of course, he might also not turn into the next Carmelo. There's a world where Bailey becomes a backup wing scorer, who grabs the occasional rebound, and does little else.
With Murray-Boyles, there's never the fear that he won't offer a team multiple elements.
Let's get to the drawbacks first. Murray-Boyles is already 20, so he's more than a year older than Bailey, which does suggest there's less squeeze in the bottle of potential.
He's also not much of a long-range shooter (26.5% on limited volume), and his offensive game flat-out doesn't come as easy to him as it does to Bailey.
And... that's kind of it.
In every other facet of the game, Murray-Boyles projects as superior - and far superior in quite a few categories.
Defensively, he's a game-changer and a Day 1 NBA defender. His physical playing style also allows him to bully people to the rim, and forcing himself to the line, which has proven to be a solid counter for when the jumper isn't sticking.
His playmaking is also far ahead of where Bailey's is, with the same being true of his overall touch inside the arc, particularly near the rim.
Murray-Boyles' 16.8 points in 30.6 minutes compares well the raw scoring line of Bailey, but that should be taken with a grain of salt, given how easily Bailey can get to his shot, whereas Murray-Boyles has to work far more to get off quality looks.
Every team considering Bailey over Murray-Boyles does so with the idea of Bailey exploding into one of the best offensive forwards in the NBA.
Because he'd almost have to be to justify picking him over a player with so many more avenues to succeed.
Will general managers have the guts to swing big for Bailey, or the safety net of Murray-Boyles prove more attractive? We'll learn a lot more in the weeks to come.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.