Opinion: PQ byelection win means tough choices ahead for anglophones

Montreal Gazette

20 hours ago

After years of CAQ mismanagement — a battered health care system, controversial immigration policies, a lack of housing solutions and a sluggish economy — Quebecers are asking: could the PQ be any worse? Most Quebec voters don't want another referendum, but another term of François Legault, with his poor record of late and his thinly veiled targeting of the English-speaking community, is equally unappealing.
Political folklore only fuels that perception: tales of a young Legault bullied by anglophones, or of him strolling down Sherbrooke St. with his language minister and remarking there was 'too much English here.' True or not, his policies make them believable.
The Parti Québécois's byelection win in Arthabaska is more than a local upset. It confirms what many Quebecers have quietly suspected: the CAQ and the PQ are increasingly interchangeable. And it confirms that the Quebec Liberal Party has a lot of work to do if it wants a shot at forming the next government.
The CAQ was born from an improbable union of federalists and separatists — a political marriage dressed up as nationalism. Legault, a former PQ cabinet minister, mastered the art of squeezing as many advantages as possible from Ottawa while keeping Quebec in Canada. But his separatist roots never vanished. The longer he's been in office, the more visible they've become.
Some francophone CAQ voters I've spoken with say a Liberal comeback is possible, but there are obstacles before that can happen. There's no appetite for a referendum, they say, though polls show separatist sentiment is rising among Quebecers in their 20s. And they give PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon high marks: Oxford and McGill educated, bilingual, policy-savvy. Many have told me, 'if he were Liberal leader, he'd likely win a majority.' In Quebec politics, the best-qualified leader often wears the wrong colours.
That leaves voters with a familiar, unappealing choice: a capable PQ leader whose main goal — independence — most reject, or a Liberal leader with a federal aura. Pablo Rodriguez is competent, but he comes with Trudeau-era baggage that may haunt him unless he can shed it before Election Day — and he has a lot of work to do to make that happen. The Liberals remain Montreal-centric and branded as the party of the anglophone. If Rodriguez can't shatter that image and win over francophones beyond the city, his party's chances collapse. And the clock is ticking.
One thing is certain: the CAQ's shine is gone. After an expected cabinet shuffle by Labour Day, Legault may well take his 'walk in the snow' before winter, leaving his party scrambling for a saviour — maybe even someone from outside its ranks, their own, quote-unquote, 'Mark Carney.' Stranger things have happened.
The Arthabaska result doesn't mean Quebec is racing back toward independence. But it does mean voters are restless, and the CAQ's grip on power is broken.
And for anglophone Quebecers, the calculation is even more complicated. We've ridden the PQ roller coaster before. St-Pierre Plamondon is no Pauline Marois — but does his pedigree inspire enough confidence that he would shelve a referendum in his first mandate? Is that something we can truly trust? The alternative is voting Liberal, a party many say has long taken the English community for granted. Either way, it's a risk — one we have to weigh carefully. The real question is which party, the PQ or the Liberals, will actually pay attention to us? The fact that we're even asking is disappointing, and frankly, sad for our community.
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