Pre-Markets Flat to Start a Fresh Trading Week
Pre-market futures are mostly flat to start a new trading week, with only the small-cap Russell 2000 still trading down more than -0.1%. We're already off pre-market lows, as market participants look forward toward the passage of the budget reconciliation bill (aka the 'Big Beautiful Bill') through the Senate by mid-week. Bond yields also remain muted at this hour, with the 10-year at 4.34% and the 2-year 3.89%.Oil prices are up slightly this morning, following a round of U.S. air strikes on Iran over the weekend. Considering the vast implications of such an undertaking, oil markets are taking this news pretty much in stride this morning. That said, we are at five-month highs currently, but WTI and Brent crude remain trading in the mid-$70s per barrel.
The June print on S&P flash PMI for Services and Manufacturing is expected after the regular trading day gets underway. Both are expected to tick down half a point or so month over month, yet remain over the key 50-level, which indicates growth versus loss. While Services has been ping-ponging back and forth so far each month in 2025, Manufacturing looks to revert to where we were in the early part of the year.
Also, Existing Home Sales for May will be hitting the tape at 10am ET today. This is also expected to come down a bit month over month, which would represent the third-straight month lower and the first sub-4 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units since October of last year. Higher-than-expected mortgage rates here in mid-2025 continue to control much of the narrative here.
We will see a healthy range of new housing data this week, beyond today's Existing Home Sales: New and Pending Home Sales for May will be out Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for April will give us the most accurate look at nationwide pricing data ahead of the opening bell tomorrow.
In addition, Consumer Confidence, Retail & Wholesale Inventories, Advanced Trade Balance, Durable Goods Orders and the second revision on Q1 GDP will also find their way into our collective economic outlook. This is all before the all-important Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for May, which is cited in multiple other economic prints. By the end of this week, we should have a much tighter grasp on how our domestic economy is performing.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
Zacks Investment Research
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
28 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Here's how Wall Street sees the Israel-Iran conflict affecting recession odds
The Israel-Iran conflict raises concerns over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs and other banks warn of recession risks if global oil supply is disrupted. Higher oil prices would impact global economic growth and inflation. Recession risks have come down significantly from their peak in April after Donald Trump's tariff announcements, but the Israel-Iran conflict has ignited fresh concerns about the path of global economic growth. After US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend, markets are worried about Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil-shipping chokepoints. Over the weekend, the odds of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz spiked to over 50% on Polymarket. The risk of further military escalation is a major reason Goldman Sachs said that it hasn't cut its recession probability, which hovers at 30%. With roughly 20% of the world's oil passing through the strait, a closure would bottleneck oil supply and send oil prices, and subsequently inflation, higher. At current levels around $73 a barrel of US oil and $76 a barrel for Brent, crude oil prices have increased around $10 per barrel since early June, which wouldn't be enough to pose a big threat to inflation and GDP growth, Jan Hatzius, the bank's chief economist, wrote in a note over the weekend. However, he sees the possibility of a much larger price move "in a tail scenario where the conflict expands significantly further and/or the Strait of Hormuz is closed. In that tail scenario, the risk of recession would climb sharply." In a worst-case scenario, oil volumes through the Strait of Hormuz could decrease by 50% for one month, then remain down 10% for another 11 months, Goldman Sachs commodities analysts predicted. That would lead Brent oil prices to peak at $110 per barrel before coming down to $95 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025. While Goldman Sachs' base case assumes Brent oil prices fall to $60 by year-end and deliver a modest boost to GDP growth, disruption in the energy supply could reduce global growth by 0.3 percentage points and send inflation rising by 0.7 percentage points. With regards to markets, Morgan Stanley also sees rising oil prices as a potential negative catalyst that sparks a potential 19% drop in the S&P 500. According to Mike Wilson, the bank's chief investment officer and chief equity strategist, a 75% year-over-year rise in oil prices has historically been disruptive enough to impact the business cycle and lead to a recession. Some forecasters see the potential for an even higher spike in crude prices. A 75% increase in oil prices isn't off the table, JPMorgan said. Commodities analysts at the bank see a 21% chance of a major disruption to energy production in the Persian Gulf, which could cause oil prices to rise to $120-$130 a barrel. However, such a scenario is not the bank's base case. JPMorgan sees crude oil averaging down to around $60 a barrel by the end of the year and into 2026, barring severe geopolitical escalation. Morgan Stanley's Commodities Strategist Martijn Rats believes a 75% spike in oil prices would only emerge as a result of prolonged supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. "Thus, while we're respectful of the risks, there's a long way to go on this basis," Wilson wrote. Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
CNBC
37 minutes ago
- CNBC
Jim Cramer explains why stocks were headed higher on Monday
CNBC's Jim Cramer parsed Monday's market action, explaining why he thinks stocks went higher after the market digested news of the U.S.'s attack on Iran and the country's response. "Today, the market breathed a bullish sigh of relief when Iran simply fired ordinary missiles at our military bases in the region. At least so far, there haven't been any casualties," he said, adding that President Donald Trump said Iran warned the U.S. of the attack before it happened. "We blew up their nuclear program and that's all they can come up with?" The U.S. dropped bombs on key nuclear facilities in Iran, directly entering the war between the country and Israel over the weekend. On Monday, Iran announced it had attacked a U.S. military base in Qatar in retaliation. However, Qatar's Defense Ministry said it successfully intercepted the missile strike and reported there were no deaths or injuries. Investors largely shrugged off the escalating geopolitical turmoil, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.89%, the S&P 500 added 0.96% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.94%. Investors were relieved that Iran's retaliation was more restrained than expected. Wall Street bet that the oil supply would not be seriously disrupted by the conflict, and oil sold off throughout the day. In a truth social post, Trump said "everyone" should keep oil prices low, and doing otherwise would "play into the hands of the enemy." According to Cramer, the market tends to "move on" from conflict in the Middle East as long as the price of oil doesn't spike and impact the U.S. economy, saying Wall Street is used to chaos in that region. He said investors are shifting their focus to more bullish developments, like comments from Federal Reserve officials that suggest rate cuts could be in the near future. Wall Street was also pleased by reports that Meta is spending big to hire top talent, and that Tesla CEO Elon Musk touted a "successful" robotaxi launch in Austin, Texas, Cramer said. He also said investors were encouraged by a report that Bank of New York Mellon approached Northern Trust to discuss a potential merger. "I don't think we could have had such a bullish day without those Fed officials floating the idea of imminent rate cuts, but it's entirely possible that our government destroyed Iran's nuclear program," Cramer said. "That means this war may be nearing its end, and a jump in oil prices may have been taken off the table." Click here to download Jim Cramer's Guide to Investing at no cost to help you build long-term wealth and invest The CNBC Investing Club Charitable Trust holds shares of Meta.
Yahoo
37 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Shares cheered in Asia as Trump announces Iran-Israel ceasefire
(Corrects day in paragraph 1.) By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) -Wall Street futures rose and the dollar eased in Asia on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire, sending oil prices into a deep dive as concerns over supply disruptions ebbed. Writing on his Truth Social site, Trump implied a ceasefire would go into effect in 12 hours and then the war would be considered "ended". Oil prices fell another 4%, having already slid 9% on Monday when Iran made a token retaliation against a U.S. base which came to nothing and signalled it was done for now. However, both Israel and Iran continued their missile strikes, making investors cautious about piling into risk assets just yet. "This lifts some of the geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the markets, although, for the most part, equity investors have been kind of shrugging the uncertainty off," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Wealth Advisors in Palm Beach, Florida. "It certainly sounds like a significant milestone, and I hope it's true." With the immediate threat to the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane seemingly over, U.S. crude futures fell another 4% to $65.75 per barrel. S&P 500 futures gained 0.3% in early trade, while Nasdaq futures added 0.5%. Nikkei futures traded up at 38,905, well above the cash close of 38,354. Futures for 10-year Treasuries fell 6 ticks as the need for safe havens lessened, while interest rate futures slipped as investors rowed back a little on expectations for rate cuts. The market had rallied on Monday after Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the time to cut interest rates was getting nearer as risks to the job market may be on the rise. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have his own chance to comment when appearing before Congress later on Tuesday and, so far, has been more cautious about a near-term easing. Markets still only imply around a 22% chance the Fed will cut at its next meeting on July 30. News of the ceasefire saw the dollar extend an overnight retreat and slip 0.1% to 145.92 yen, while the euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1589. The yen and euro benefited from the slide in oil prices as both the EU and Japan rely heavily on imports of oil and liquefied natural gas, while the United States is a net exporter. The risk-on mood saw gold prices ease 0.4% to $3,353 an ounce. Sign in to access your portfolio
