Air Force, Navy Warn Troops About Political Speech Amid Trump Administration Changes
"The 1st Amendment protects freedom of speech and permits the expression of ideas for all Americans," Acting Air Force Secretary Gary Ashworth wrote in a March 17 memo. "Service members, owing to their critical role in our national security and the duties and obligations of service, have accepted limits on their freedom of expression."
Military legal experts who spoke to Military.com find the mentions of potential UCMJ crimes to be somewhat unusual and even threatening to troops who likely don't have much to worry about when speaking about their personal experiences and beliefs.
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Both the Air Force and Navy memos highlight several UCMJ violations including Article 88, a rarely charged offense that outlaws "contempt against officials" such as the president, defense secretary, Congress and other officials. Both memos also warn of violations such as Article 92 on failure to obey an order or regulation; Article 133 on conduct unbecoming an officer; and Article 134 on disorders and neglects to the prejudice of good order and discipline.
"I think this message is troubling and vaguely threatening. It's clearly been reviewed by an attorney, but it's not giving an objective picture on the regulations surrounding free speech," one current Air Force judge advocate general, who spoke under condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal, told Military.com. "Its mention of criminal charges for disrespectful speech is also without helpful context."
Service members accept some limits on their political speech when joining the military and are advised to avoid political campaigning or messaging while in uniform or in any official capacity representing the military. The rule is similar to the Hatch Act, which prohibits federal employees from certain partisan activities and was designed to assure federal programs remain nonpartisan.
The Navy's March 14 admin to all sailors advises them to include disclaimers on social media clarifying their views are their own and don't represent the Department of the Navy or Department of Defense.
"While service members may generally express their personal views on public issues, uniformed service brings certain limitations to expression, including on social media," the Navy guidance states.
Both follow a Feb. 19 memo from the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense that advised the service secretaries to remind troops of their apolitical and nonpartisan duties.
"Given the intense focus on recent changes within the department, maintaining the public trust is more important than ever," said the memo from Darin Selnick, who is performing the duties of the undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness.
The Pentagon under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and President Donald Trump is undergoing a series of unprecedented changes, from the ongoing firings of thousands of civilian employees, the purging of any content and policies related to diversity -- including women and troops with minority backgrounds -- to the cutting and reprioritizing of billions of dollars in defense spending.
Dan Grazier, a senior fellow with the National Security Reform Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington, D.C., told Military.com that the language of the memos seemed pretty standard given the change in the White House, but said he did find the mention of Article 88 to be noteworthy.
"This really seems pretty standard, particularly around the time of a presidential administration transition," Grazier said. "This is new people and new positions, and they're just putting out the current administration's policies."
However, Article 88 has been used only a handful of times in recent years.
In the 1960s, Lt. Henry Howe was sentenced under Article 88 for protesting the Vietnam War, calling then-President Lyndon Johnson a fascist. In 2021, former Marine Corps Lt. Col. Stu Scheller pleaded guilty to violating Article 88, among other violations, for publicly criticizing military leadership's handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal.
Eric Carpenter, a former military lawyer who is now a law professor at Florida International University, told Military.com that the memo seemed standard and that mentions of the UCMJ violations were likely a way for the Navy and the acting secretary of the Air Force to show troops they're serious about their message.
"If a secretary of a service is writing a memo saying 'knock it off,' they generally put some sort of teeth in it," Carpenter said. "So, there'll be some language in there that says, 'Hey, look, I'm not kidding.'"
Carpenter said that troops shouldn't be concerned about talking politics with family and friends or being passively involved in the political process. He added that service members shouldn't be scared of recounting their personal experiences to reporters.
"It's a reminder of boundaries," Carpenter said. "Airmen can still talk about their political feelings, or their political beliefs and what they disagree with an administration, with other people. They just can't get on stage and say it."
Related: Defense Secretary Calls for Calm Transition, Apolitical Military Ahead of Trump Transition
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Yahoo
38 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump-Putin meeting recap: No deal reached at Russia-Ukraine war summit in Alaska; leaders praise 'extremely productive' talks
Trump and Putin met Friday for the summit at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage. President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin both said that significant progress was made toward an agreement for a potential ceasefire in the war in Ukraine, but that a final deal had not yet been reached during their high-stakes summit in Anchorage, Alaska, on Friday. Trump said the talks were 'extremely productive' but added that 'there's no deal until there's a deal' during a joint press conference following nearly three hours of closed-door conversations between the two leaders. Details on what was agreed to and what issues have yet to be resolved were not shared. Trump and Putin met at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, where they shook hands and posed for photographs on the tarmac before beginning their sit-down away from the press. It was the first face-to-face meeting between Trump and Putin since 2019, and Putin's first with a U.S. president since his forces invaded Ukraine in 2022. The Russian leader had spoken on the phone with Trump since his reelection, but they had not yet met in person during the president's second term. Trump has been trying for months to secure a deal to end the war, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was not invited to Friday's summit, and expectations that a ceasefire agreement can be reached are low. 'This is really a feel-out meeting,' Trump told reporters earlier this week. 'Probably in the first two minutes I'll know exactly whether or not a deal can be made.' The president also promised 'very severe consequences' if Putin doesn't agree to end the three-and-a-half-year conflict, which has caused a staggering number of casualties on both sides. There were fresh attacks in the war overnight. Russia launched dozens of drone strikes across Ukraine, killing seven civilians and injuring 17 others, Ukrainian military officials said. Yahoo News' live coverage has ended. Read more information in the blog below. Russian President Vladimir Putin was seen heading into his plane less than an hour after his joint press conference with President Trump. As he entered the door, he turned around to give a wave and subtle bow. Putin and his delegation had been scheduled to meet with Trump and other U.S. officials for a luncheon before leaving Alaska, but that gathering was canceled. Not only was Russian President Vladimir Putin full of praise for President Trump after their meeting Friday in Alaska, but he also went out of his way to echo Trump in blaming former President Joe Biden for the war in Ukraine. Describing Trump's personal involvement in negotiations as "precious," Putin predicted that it would ultimately help solve "the Ukrainian issue" and "help us bring back businesslike and pragmatic relations between Russia and the U.S." Then he strategically pivoted to Trump's predecessor — and referenced a claim the president has often made about the latest phase of the war in Ukraine, which began when Putin invaded in 2022. "In 2022, during the last contact with the previous administration, I tried to convince my previous American colleague that the situation should not be brought to the point of no return when it would come to hostilities," Putin said through a translator. "That [would be] a big mistake." So "today, when President Trump is saying that if he was the president back then there will be no war, I'm quite sure that it would indeed be so," Putin added. "I can confirm that." In 2022, Jeffrey Treistman, an assistant professor of national security at the University of New Haven, argued otherwise in The Hill, claiming that "Trump has a clear track record of undermining Ukraine's sovereignty and security." Trump "would not have stopped Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine" because his "foreign policies actually served to embolden Putin and weaken the trans-Atlantic alliance," Treistman contended. After meeting for nearly three hours with Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Trump emerged from behind closed doors Friday at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, saying negotiations had been "extremely productive" — while also acknowledging that no comprehensive ceasefire agreement had been reached. "We haven't quite got there, but we've got some headway," Trump said. "There's no deal until there's a deal." The president went on to note that "many points were agreed to," while "just a few ... were left" unresolved — "one" of which, he added, is "more significant" than the others. Earlier in the day, Trump said he wanted to "see a ceasefire, rapidly." "I don't know if it's going to be today, but I'm not going to be happy if it's not today," he warned. During his joint press conference Friday with Putin, however, Trump signaled that negotiations would continue in the near future, saying that he would "call" NATO and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky because it was "ultimately up to them to agree with" the parameters of what his team and Putin's team had discussed. "We didn't get there, but we have a very good chance of getting there," Trump said. Then he addressed Putin directly, as "Vladimir." "We'll speak to you very soon — and probably see you again very soon." "Next time in Moscow," Putin interjected, drawing a chuckle from Trump. "I'll get heat for that," Trump replied. "I can see that possibly happening." As the world waits for President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to emerge from behind closed doors and comment on today's nearly three-hour meeting, Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska says the benchmark for Trump should be securing a clear-cut ceasefire commitment from Putin. "I think that the best that we could hope for is a commitment coming out of Putin to a ceasefire with enough contours to it that it is believable — that it will be more than just a brief moment to check a box here," Murkowski told CNN. Earlier, David Sanger of the New York Times said that "if there isn't a cease fire with a date certain, and a specific length, it's going to be very hard for the president to spin that he got much progress here." Trump supporters were seen congregating outside Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson to show their support for the president during the summit. Negotiations with the American delegation in the "narrow format" have concluded, the Kremlin said in a short statement. This presumably refers to the closed-door three-on-three meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that had been going on for nearly three hours. Aides have just checked the microphones at the podiums where Trump and Putin are expected to address reporters for a joint press conference. The Kremlin said this press conference will start soon. Trump and Putin were originally supposed to speak to the media after a working bilateral lunch meeting between the larger U.S. and Russian delegations. It is unclear whether that larger meeting will take place. Friday's meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin has been a red carpet affair — a polished production orchestrated at least in part by Trump himself, who spent years co-producing and starring in his own reality television show (NBC's The Apprentice). Alaska's Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy posted a video to social media Friday in which he described a conversation he had with the president on Air Force One before Trump's meeting with Putin. In addition to mentioning that Trump said he 'loves Alaska,' Dunleavy addressed rumors suggesting that granting Russia access to the state's bountiful natural resources could be a bargaining chip to help convince Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. 'We talked to the president about these rumors that Alaska's minerals are going to be sold off to the Russians or that Alaska's gas is going to be transported by the Russians. … That's not true,' Dunleavy said in the video. 'Some would say that's fake news.' The British newspaper the Telegraph reported earlier this week, citing unnamed sources, that Trump would consider 'opening up Alaska's natural resources to Moscow.' A high-ranking Russian lawmaker added more fuel to the claim by commenting that it 'would be interesting' for companies from his country to be granted the right 'to work on the lands of Alaska.' Trump didn't rule anything out when he was asked directly whether Alaska's resources might be part of a potential deal with Russia on Thursday, saying only, 'We're going to see what happens.' The scheduled working lunch with more parties has not started yet, Dan Scavino, the White House Deputy Chief of Staff, said on X. This means the meeting between Trump, Putin and their chosen aides has lasted almost two hours so far. The White House did not issue a strict schedule for today's summit, but some have speculated the timing could be a sign that Trump has not felt obligated to "walk," as he told Fox News host Bret Baier he would do if he was not happy with how the conversation was going. A lot of phone calls between Trump and Putin this year have lasted up to 90 minutes, CNN reported. There are also two translators who are in the room facilitating the conversation. During his 2024 reelection campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly said he would end the war between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours of returning to the Oval Office — or sooner. Actually, repeatedly is an understatement. According to CNN, Trump predicted he would resolve the conflict by Day One of his second term at least 53 times. 'Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, I will have the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine settled,' Trump said in Maryland on March 4, 2023, for example. 'I will get the problem solved and I will get it solved in rapid order and it will take me no longer than one day. I know exactly what to say to each of them.' Given that today is Day 208 of Trump's second term and the war still isn't over, critics have accused Trump of breaking his promise. In response, the president has claimed that he 'said that figuratively… as an exaggeration… to make a point.' The important part, he added, was that he said the war 'will be ended.' Today's 'high stakes' meeting with Putin in Alaska proves how much striking a peace deal matters to Trump — in part because he spent much of 2023 and 2024 vowing to do it. The path to peace in Ukraine is the most pressing issue for Trump and Putin's summit, but it's not the only critical subject that the two leaders are expected to discuss. The last remaining arms control agreement between the world's two nuclear superpowers is set to expire at the beginning of next year and both leaders have expressed optimism that a new pact can be reached during their meeting in Alaska. The U.S. and Russia have by far the largest nuclear arsenals in the world, together controlling 90% of the world's nuclear weapons. The two nations have been working under some form of nuclear arms control deal since 1972. The current agreement, known as the New START treaty, limits the number of warheads each country can keep on alert at any given time. That deal expires in February and cannot be extended. If a new agreement isn't reached before then, the U.S. and Russia will be operating without a mutual nuclear agreement for the first time in more than half a century. On Thursday, Putin suggested that the summit could create 'the long-term conditions of peace between our countries … and in the world as a whole, if we reach agreements in the field of strategic offensive arms control,' while speaking with top Russian officials in Moscow. Trump expressed similar sentiments last month, telling reporters, 'That's not an agreement you want expiring. We're starting to work on that.' Neither leader has offered details of what might be included in a new nuclear agreement or how a future deal might differ from the one currently in place. As Trump and Putin continue their meeting, here's a recap of what's already happened so far today: The summit turned into a three-on-three meeting. It was initially planned for Trump and Putin to meet alone, but they both now have two advisers sitting with them. Trump has U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while Putin has Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was not invited to the meeting, said in a social media post that Ukraine is "counting on America," although Trump told reporters this morning, "I'm not here to negotiate for Ukraine." Trump has suggested that, if his conversation with Putin is successful, he could set up another meeting with Putin and Zelensky. Trump said he "would walk" if the conversation doesn't go well. He told Fox News host Bret Baier on Air Force One that he will "head back home real fast" if everything doesn't "work out very well." President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have been meeting for an hour behind closed doors at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are sitting alongside Trump. Putin is flanked by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov. The only other people in the room are translators. For the duration of this sit-down, there will be no reports about what Trump and Putin are saying to each other. Once they are done, broader "talks within the delegations, possibly in the form of a working lunch" are likely to follow, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitr Peskov. "After that, the heads of state will withdraw for some time" to consult with their advisors "and then come together for a joint press conference." All told, the process could last for six or seven hours, according to Peskov, meaning it might wrap up around 9 or 10 p.m. ET. Or not. Trump has previously said that while he thinks the summit is "going to work out very well ... if it doesn't, I'm going to head back home real fast.' Alternately, the president also said Thursday that if he and Putin make real progress, he might remain in Alaska and ask President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to fly in, which he said 'would be by far the easiest way' to mediate. Either way, Trump plans to sit for an interview with Sean Hannity of Fox News Friday night. He is scheduled to depart Alaska for Washington, D.C., before midnight local time. While Trump meets with Putin, his team sent out a fundraising email, according to screenshots an Associated Press reporter shared on X. "I'm meeting with Putin in Alaska! It's a little chilly," the email says. "THIS MEETING IS VERY HIGH STAKES for the world." The email encouraged people to donate, adding, "No one in the world knows how to make deals like me!" President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin did not answer questions from reporters while posing earlier today for a red carpet photo op at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska. But that didn't stop the press from asking — or rather, shouting — their questions anyway. And in one instance, it didn't stop Putin from gesturing in response. 'President Putin, will you agree to a ceasefire?' 'Mr. President, what's your message to Vladimir Putin?' 'Mr. Putin, did you underestimate Ukraine?' None of these queries provoked any real reaction from the two leaders, other than a few words to each other and a handshake for the cameras. But then someone asked Putin if he would 'stop killing civilians.' At that, Putin grimaced, pointed to his ear — as if to suggest that he couldn't hear — and shrugged. Trump and Putin then exchanged a few more words, smiled and stepped into the presidential limo. 'President Putin, how can the U.S. trust your word?' a reporter shouted as Trump ushered Putin away. The U.S. president raised his hand, as if to wave goodbye or signal 'that's enough' — and an aide said, 'Thank you, press.' Putin was again asked about "killing civilians" during a second photo op with additional U.S. and Russian officials, and he again reacted — this time by narrowing his eyes skeptically, cupping his hands around his mouth and addressing the reporter directly (though inaudibly to the microphones). The two leaders arrived at the building at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, where they plan to meet and hold their news conference later tonight. The fact that Trump and Putin rode together — without top aides and officials — in the U.S. presidential limo from the tarmac to the site of today's summit is significant. Why? Because it's so unusual. When Trump wanted North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un — another U.S. adversary — to join him in his car during their meeting in Singapore in 2018, advisers talked him out of it. Today's meeting with Putin was expanded from a one-on-one to a three-on-three at the last minute. But Trump and Putin still made sure to get some alone time beforehand — even if they had to carve it out during a brief car ride. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Putin's foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov will be joining Putin in his conversation with Trump, RIA Novosti, a Russian state news agency, said, according to the Associated Press. RIA Novosti got the names from Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Putin, Lavrov and Ushakov will meet with Trump, Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff soon. President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin emerged from their respective planes and proceeded down an L-shaped red carpet at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, before meeting for a handshake. At 11:07 a.m. local time, Trump deplaned first from Air Force One. Putin followed seconds later. Trump waited for Putin to approach him for the handshake; he briefly applauded as Putin got closer. The two exchanged words for several seconds before walking together toward reporters and posing for a side-by-side photo op while American fighter jets flew overhead. The two leaders then entered the U.S. presidential limo (nicknamed "The Beast") to ride together to today's summit. Russian President Vladimir Putin has landed in Anchorage, Alaska. Air Force One touched down about 30 minutes ago at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, the military base in Anchorage where President Trump will meet with Putin this afternoon. Trump has been greeting Alaska lawmakers on board as he awaits Putin's arrival.
USA Today
39 minutes ago
- USA Today
Americans are shifting away from wanting kids. I'm worried for my generation.
Today's culture often celebrates personal freedom and career milestones. What about raising a family? It's the question we all eventually get asked in our lives, several times. 'What do you see yourself eventually doing?' As a young person still figuring some things out, you can imagine how often I get that one, whether it's from my fellow classmates, my professors or my friends' parents. My first instinct is to talk about the family I hope to raise, but I know the question is likely about my professional ambitions instead. It's understandable – a career can certainly provide one with a sense of duty and purpose. Indeed, 71% of American adults state that having an enjoyable job is extremely important for living a fulfilling life. But only 26% say the same about having children. Do Americans need to have more kids? This red state shows how to help families. | Opinion We are seeing a culture shift away from family The lack of priority given to one's future family is deeply worrying nowadays. It reflects a larger cultural shift: Fewer Americans are getting married and having children. Why is this the case, especially when almost half of Americans agree that fewer people choosing to have kids would negatively impact the country? Some cite affordability, environmental concerns and bad memories of their own childhood. Most Americans ages 18-49 who doubt they'll reproduce, however, say they simply don't want to. People increasingly view becoming a parent as burdensome, and while it is true that raising a kid demands hard work and sacrifice, America's aversion to starting a family has its consequences. I love being a mom. Why do many progressives tear down motherhood? | Opinion Recently released data shows that the fertility rate in the United States has dropped to a record low of less than 1.6 births per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. This means we are trending toward a future with more retirees and fewer working-age adults, which threatens long-term economic growth, increases pressure on social services and erodes support networks for the elderly. We can look at South Korea as a warning, which had a fertility rate of 0.75 in 2024, and that wasn't even the lowest on record. Over the next 60 years, that nation's population is projected to halve, and by this point, people ages 65 and older will make up approximately 58% of the population. Health care and pension costs are expected to soar, and a rise in lonely, isolated deaths is a concern. I'm concerned about what young people want Just a few months ago, during Harvard University's finals season, I overheard a conversation between two other students at the library. One of them was saying he was excited for his post-grad life because he'd be making money on Wall Street, drinking and getting high with his friends, and entering a string of noncommitted relationships. For him, that was the reason he was attending college for four years. That mindset, although disappointing to hear now, will do more than disappoint us later. It points to a grim, childless future. Today's culture often celebrates personal freedom and career milestones, while less glamorous moments that give life incredible meaning are pushed to the side. Of course, this isn't to say that everyone should have or want kids – there are other goals worth pursuing. But for countless young people, parenthood remains an overlooked path. It isn't a detour from your career; it can be one of the most rewarding vocations. But there remains hope. In the United States, parenthood is associated with happiness and fulfillment. The Institute for Family Studies finds that 37% of married parents between 18 and 50 years old describe themselves as very happy, compared with 26% of married nonparents. Among unmarried adults, 16% of parents report being very happy, compared with 14% of nonparents. Additionally, while many acknowledge the stress and fatigue that come with raising children, 80% of parents say it is enjoyable all or most of the time, and 82% of parents believe it is rewarding. Yes, parenting is difficult. But young people these days rarely hear about the joys of raising children. Instead, the ideal life is often portrayed as one with total freedom and zero responsibility – one that is inevitably childless. Elizabeth Choi is an intern for USA TODAY Opinion and a student at Harvard University.
USA Today
39 minutes ago
- USA Today
US will dodge recession, but Trump's policies will slow economic growth: Report
President Donald Trump's aggressive economic policies will likely significantly slow U.S. growth and push up inflation but stop short of causing a recession or 'stagflation' – the dire scenarios that forecasters envisioned before he took office, a report says. 'The totality of the policies does not push the economy to the brink of recession but it significantly diminishes growth' during Trump's four-year term, said economist Justin Begley of Moody's Analytics. He added, 'It's not yet stagflation but it's edging that way.' Stagflation is an economy characterized by high inflation, slow or stagnant growth and high unemployment – an unusual and toxic cocktail. Typically, a sluggish economy leads to low inflation, allowing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to stimulate more borrowing and activity. Will the Fed lower rates in September? The Fed, however, faces a dilemma because lowering rates to bolster a softening labor market could further drive up inflation. Consumer price increases generally have eased substantially after a pandemic-related spike but recently edged higher, in part because of Trump's sweeping import levies. His policies are imposing countervailing forces on the economy. Tax cuts and increased spending on border security and defense are set to juice growth. But those positive catalysts are expected to be more than offset by the tariffs, a historic immigration crackdown, layoffs of hundreds of thousands of federal workers and big cuts to social services programs such as Medicaid and food stamps, Begley said. During Trump's presidential race against former Vice President Kamala Harris last year, Moody's, among other research firms, predicted Trump's economic blueprint would spark a recession by mid-2025. Moody's has updated its forecast in part because the contours of his plan recently have become more clearly defined, Begley said. 'We have a better view where things are going,' he said. What tariffs has Trump imposed? For example, high double-digit tariffs are in place for steel and aluminum, foreign cars and Chinese imports. And the White House has reached deals with trading partners such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the UK that set tariffs at 10% to 20%. Trump's deportations and constraints on Southern border crossings are well under way. And his huge budget bill, which he signed into law on July 4, expanded his 2017 tax cuts, beefed up military and border security outlays, and slashed some entitlement spending. How is the economy doing under Trump? All told, Moody's projects Trump's policies will reduce economic growth by an average 0.4 percentage points annually – nearly half a point – during his term. That would leave the economy expanding an average 1.7% annually over the four years, with growth bottoming at 1.4% next year and peaking at 2.2% in 2028. The economy grew at an annual rate of 1.2% the first half of 2025. It's projected to grow at slightly less than a 1% pace in the second half, according to economists surveyed by Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators. By contrast, the economy averaged 2.3% growth the decade after the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and 3.5% during former president Joe Biden's term. The latter, however, included unusually strong gains as the nation emerged from the pandemic recession. In 2024, Biden's last year in office, the economy grew a healthy 2.8%. Growth had been expected to downshift no matter who won the 2024 election as a post-COVID-19 surge in consumer demand petered out, Americans depleted government pandemic aid and other government stimulus measures faded. But by the end of Trump's term in 2028, the economy will be 1.3% smaller than if his policies had not been enacted, Begley wrote in a report. Also, the unemployment rate is expected to peak at 4.7% in 2027 before falling to 4.4% by the time Trump leaves office. Without his policies, unemployment would broadly hold steady at about 4% and there would be about 885,000 additional jobs, Moody's said. Is inflation ever going to go down? Trump's policies similarly are poised to push up inflation by an average of nearly half a percentage point a year. That would leave annual inflation averaging 2.6% during Trump's term and peaking at 3.1% in 2026, based on the Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures price index. Inflation then would decline and nearly reach the Fed's 2% goal in 2028, the last year of his term. Absent the president's policies, inflation would achieve the Fed's target next year, Begley's analysis shows. Are tariffs contributing to inflation? Tariffs, by far, represent both the biggest drag on growth and the largest contributor to inflation, Begley said. Companies are expected to pass most of the costs of the duties to consumers, driving up prices. And that's expected to sap their buying power and reduce consumption, which makes up 70% of economic activity. Without the tariffs, the net effects of Trump's policies on growth would be slightly positive, Begley said. The benefits of tax cuts and increased defense and border spending would outweigh the toll taken by the immigration crackdown, federal layoffs and cutbacks to Medicaid and food stamps, he said. What are the negative effects of deportations? Another big hit comes from the deportations. Like the tariffs, the immigration crackdown is projected to both curtail growth and boost inflation. A reduced supply of workers in industries such as construction, agriculture and hospitality is expected to drive up wages and prices. And a smaller population of immigrants means less consumer spending. Here's why Moody's forecast of the effects of Trump's policies is less dire than it was before he took office: Less retaliation from tariffs Although Trump's tariffs are higher than anticipated, Moody's expected more significant retaliation from foreign countries that would batter U.S. manufacturers' exports. At least so far, those nations have taken a more restrained approach. Fewer deportations than expected Moody's figured the Trump administration would seek to deport about 1 million immigrants who lack permanent legal status each year. But Begley said that has proven logistically challenging. Goldman Sachs estimates monthly deportations have averaged an annualized pace of about 600,000. Tax cuts give middle-class Americans more spending money Although Trump vowed during his campaign to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime, Moody's didn't necessarily expect him to follow through. The budget bill, however, scraps taxes on tips up to $25,000 a year and over time up to $12,500.
