We need to sprint to get across the steep hill ahead
It was 12 May 1947. Clement Atlee, the newly elected prime minister of the United Kingdom then, was meeting with military commanders at his official residence, 10 Downing Street. WW-II hero Field Marshal Bernard Montgomery and some policy experts were also at the meeting, convened to discuss India's independence and its eventual partition.
These men believed India as a nation had socialistic impulses and, if given independence in an undivided form, could be influenced by communism, which they saw as a mortal threat to British colonialism. So they decided to create a 'buffer state" between the Soviet Union and India that would do their bidding in the region. On 14 August 1947, Pakistan was given independence and turned into a Western puppet. India was given independence on 15 August 947 but chose the path of non-alignment.
Today, 78 years later, the generals responsible for the partition of India stand defeated.
Pakistan has wriggled free of the Western chokehold and is firmly in the grip of China. The Soviet Union is history, but its remnant, Russia, with the biggest nuclear stockpile in the world, is now Beijing's friend. Another undeclared nuclear power, North Korea, is already part of this axis. The world looks at the quartet with great concern. US President Donald Trump has done his bit to aggravate the global unease. His 'tariff war" tantrums have blurred the line between friends and foes. The dark days of the Cold War look sane compared with the present situation.
In the age of changing equations and global 'reset", how should we position ourselves?
Read more: The Reserve Bank's growth stimulus is a bold bet on price stability
We can't remain smug that Pakistan, earlier a pawn of the West and now China's poker chip is digging another grave for itself. Superpowers are solely concerned about their interests. The father of modern US foreign policy, Henry Kissinger, once said, 'To be an enemy of the US is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal."
India needs to tread cautiously. The enemy is now firmly under the influence of China, with whom we have a long-standing border dispute. Russia, too, is toeing Beijing's line. Europe is in a crisis. It leaves us with just the US, whose 'friendship is fatal".
The road ahead is difficult. But India is now set to become the fourth-largest economy in the world in FY26. We have done wonders through coordination and self-reliance. We have the biggest pool of graduates in the world, and we have the largest young population. Hundreds of Indian graduates from IITs, IIMs, and AIIMS are making their mark globally. This is the time when, instead of being exporters of trained manpower, we should emerge as net importers of global talent.
Data from Google testifies that since Trump's policies came into force, there has been a 25% drop in searches for US universities. Today, out of the 10 best educational institutions, 9 are in China. We will have to improve our education and update our internal infrastructure so that we can attract talented students from developing countries. China is trying to do the same, but our social setup will be far more effective and attractive for global citizens. Luckily, we have a higher education infrastructure that we need to update to match emerging needs.
We would need a second 'Green Revolution" to become one of the three top producers of grain. We should remember that the world stood behind Ukraine after it was attacked because it is the world's largest exporter of foodgrain.
As far as military hardware is concerned, the weapon traders are politics-agnostic. They'll remain available, though that's not adequate. We need to expedite our military hardware production. Indigenous missiles proved their effectiveness in the recent clashes with Pakistan. It also brought the limitations of Western aeroplanes and equipment to the fore.
We need to become an exporter rather than an importer of military hardware. We have made a beginning, but it's not enough. We shouldn't work on a war footing only when we are faced with a war. To create a great nation, we should remain alert against any slack and legacy mindset during peacetime.
China did the same and is now itching to reach the top. Pakistan took a completely different path, and the results are evident. Treading a middle path, we have achieved a lot, but it's time to sprint towards a steep hill. For this, we'll have to marshal all our resources and willpower.
Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. Views are personal.
Read more: Firm and focused leadership keeps India on course
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12 minutes ago
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UPSC Key: National Emergency, Women's Reservation Bill and CPI inflation
Important topics and their relevance in UPSC CSE exam for June 12, 2025. If you missed the June 11, 2025 UPSC CSE exam key from the Indian Express, read it here FRONT PAGE Echoes from Courtroom No. 24: Verdict unseated PM, she struck back at nation Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: History of India Main Examination: General Studies II: Modern Indian history from about the middle of the eighteenth century until the present- significant events, personalities, issues. What's the ongoing story: On June 12, 1975, the ruling by Justice Jagmohan Lal Sinha of Allahabad High Court set aside Indira Gandhi's 1971 election, triggering a chain of events that led to the imposition of Emergency. Key Points to Ponder: • What is an Emergency? • Emergency 1975-what you know so far? • What are the emergency provisions in the Constitution of India? • Which type of Emergency was imposed in 1975? • Reason behind Emergency 1975-know in detail • What were the Impacts of imposing National Emergency in 1975? • Who was the judge who delivered the verdict against Indira Gandhi in the 1975 election case? • Who was the President of India during the declaration of Emergency in 1975? • Which fundamental rights was most curtailed during the Emergency? • Evaluate the role of the judiciary during the Emergency, particularly in the ADM Jabalpur case. • Do you agree that the 44th Amendment Act was a corrective measure to restore constitutional balance post-Emergency? Key Takeaways: • At 10 am on June 12, 1975, Justice Jagmohan Lal Sinha reached Courtroom Number 24 of the Allahabad High Court and took his seat in the jam-packed courtroom. And then, he pronounced a judgment that would go on to have epochal consequences for then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi — and India. • Allowing the petition of Raj Narain, who, following his loss to Indira Gandhi in the 1971 election, had moved court alleging electoral malpractices by the Prime Minister, Justice Sinha said, 'This petition is allowed and the election of Smt. Indira Nehru Gandhi, Respondent No. 1, to the Lok Sabha is declared void… (Indira Gandhi) accordingly stands disqualified for a period of six years from the date of this order.' • For the first time in the history of independent India, a Prime Minister's election had been set aside. Months earlier, the courtroom had witnessed another first — the Prime Minister being cross-examined for two consecutive days. • Justice Sinha then signed on the order, one that would set off a spiral of events that culminated in Indira Gandhi invoking Constitutional provisions to impose an internal Emergency – a 21-month period that witnessed an unprecedented suspension of fundamental rights and the suppression of dissent across the country. • It was on April 24, 1971, that Raj Narain, a socialist who lost the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat to Indira Gandhi that year as a joint Opposition candidate of the Samyukta Socialist Party, challenged the election result alleging electoral malpractices and misuse of government machinery by the then Prime Minister. When the petition was filed, no one gave it a chance. • n his book The Case That Shook India: The Verdict That Led to the Emergency, Prashant Bhushan, whose father Shanti Bhushan was counsel for Raj Narain and later became Union Law Minister, wrote of the many pressures Justice Sinha faced after May 23, when the arguments were wrapped up and the verdict awaited. Do You Know: • The Emergency refers to the period from June 25, 1975 to March 21, 1977, during which the government of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi used special provisions in the Constitution to impose sweeping executive and legislative consequences on the country. • The declaration of Emergency converts the federal structure into a de facto unitary one, as the Union acquires the right to give any direction to state governments, which, though not suspended, come under the complete control of the Centre. • Parliament may by law extend the (five-year) term of Lok Sabha one year at a time, make laws on subjects in the State List, and extend the Union's executive powers to the states. The President can modify, with parliamentary approval, constitutional provisions on the allocation of financial resources between the Union and states. • Under Article 352 of the Constitution, the President may, on the advice of the Cabinet headed by the Prime Minister, issue a proclamation of emergency if the security of India or any part of the country is threatened by 'war or external aggression or armed rebellion'. • In 1975, instead of armed rebellion, the ground of 'internal disturbance' was available to the government to proclaim an emergency. In its press note, the government said certain persons were inciting the police and armed forces to not discharge their duties — an apparent reference to Jayaprakash Narayan's call to police not to follow orders that were 'immoral'. • This was the only instance of proclamation of emergency due to 'internal disturbance'. The two occasions in which an emergency was proclaimed earlier, on October 26, 1962, and December 3, 1971, were both on grounds of war. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Explained: The story of the Emergency Previous year UPSC Main Question Covering similar theme: 📍Under what circumstances can the Financial Emergency be proclaimed by the President of India? What consequences follow when such a declaration remains in force? (2018) Govt looks at reservation for women in next LS elections Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Indian Polity and Governance-Constitution, Political System, Panchayati Raj, Public Policy, Rights Issues, etc Mains Examination: • General Studies I: Role of women and women's organization • General Studies II: Parliament and State legislatures—structure, functioning, conduct of business, powers & privileges and issues arising out of these. What's the ongoing story: The Modi government intends to roll out reservation of seats for women, which is linked to the delimitation exercise, in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, highly placed sources said Wednesday. Key Points to Ponder: • The Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam (One Hundred and Twenty-Eighth Amendment) Bill, 2023-Know key provisions • The Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam (One Hundred and Twenty-Eighth Amendment) Bill, 2023 seeks to reserve how many seats for women? • Will the reservation of seats be permanent or limited to a set time period? • What are the issues and challenges with the bill? • Quota within Quota and Women's Reservation Bill-Connect the dots • What Global Gender Gap Report says about women Political Empowerment in India? • What is the current state of women's representation in politics in India? • Why is women's participation in politics important? • Why delimitation is required for the implementation of women reservation? • 'Thirty-three percent Women's reservation together with gender budgeting can be very crucial to India's future progress towards gender equality'-Comment • If you can recall, addressing the nation from the ramparts of Red Fort on the 76th Independence Day, the Prime Minister called for a resolve to respect women- How 'resolve to respect women' will be implemented? Do you think 'respecting women' comes under policy or it should be in one's behaviour? • Women power's or women's empowerment? • Why after 75 years of Independence, India is still talking about women's power and women's empowerment? • What are basic issues and challenges which impedes women in India to be empowered? • Why women's empowerment is male driven? Key Takeaways: • Official sources said the government is targeting implementation of the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam that reserves one-third of seats for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies in the next election. • According to the Constitution (One Hundred and Twenty-Eighth Amendment) Bill, 2023, the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam, passed in September 2023, reservation of one-third of seats for women in Lok Sabha and state Assemblies shall come into effect after an exercise of delimitation is undertaken based on figures from the first Census that is conducted after the enactment of the Act. • Earlier this month, the government announced that the process of data collection for the Census, along with caste enumeration, would commence next year and offer a snapshot of the country's population as on March 1, 2027. • For women's reservation to become a reality in the next Lok Sabha elections, delimitation will have to be completed well in time for the Election Commission of India to conduct the 2029 polls on the basis of the new delimitation of constituencies. • Government sources claimed that the Census data will be available faster than the previous time with the advancement of technology – the enumeration will be conducted digitally using mobile applications for data collection and a central portal to collate the details and manage it. • The Census data is significant for delimitation because the process of readjusting the seats of Lok Sabha and state Assemblies and redrawing their territorial boundaries is expected to be launched once the data is available. • For delimitation to happen after the next Census, Parliament will have to pass a Delimitation Act, which will constitute a Delimitation Commission for the exercise that is likely to lead to an increase in Lok Sabha seats. Article 82 of the Constitution mandates readjustment of seats after every Census. Do You Know: • The Constitution (One Hundred and Twenty Eighth Amendment) Bill, 2023, links women's reservation to the contentious delimitation process. It states that women's reservation 'shall come into effect after an exercise of delimitation is undertaken for this purpose after the relevant figures for the first Census taken after the commencement of…' this Bill. • Article 82 of the Constitution provides for the readjustment of the constituencies (number and boundaries) of Lok Sabha and State Assemblies after every Census. • The 42nd Amendment froze this delimitation exercise until the first Census after 2000 is published. In 2001, this was further extended for 25 years. So now, delimitation would happen on the results of the first Census after 2026. • In normal course, this would have meant that delimitation would happen only after the 2031 Census results are published. But since the Census which was due in 2021 – the exercise is held every 10 years – has been delayed, ostensibly because of the Covid pandemic, this timeline could be altered. • The earliest that the Census exercise can now happen is 2025 – houselisting in 2024 followed by the actual Census and the publication would take one to two years. If the results of the '2021 Census' are published after 2026, this could become the basis of delimitation of constituencies. • The Census will be followed by the delimitation exercise which requires more amendments to the Constitution. Articles 82 and 170 (3) that deal with composition of the Legislative Assemblies would have to be amended, said S K Mendiratta, former legal advisor, Election Commission of India. • As of now, the reallocation of seats in Lok Sabha and readjustment of seats in State Assemblies are to be done when 'relevant figures for the first Census taken after the year (2026) have been published'. Mendiratta said this timeline (2026) would have to be changed to give effect to women's reservation. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Salute the women who fought 📍Express View on women's reservation Bill: Welcome, women Previous year UPSC Main Question Covering similar theme: 📍'The reservation of seats for women in the institution of local self-government has had a limited impact on the patriarchal character of the Indian political process'. Comment. (GS2, 2019) 📍Male membership needs to be encouraged in order to make women's organization free from gender bias. Comment. (GS1, 2013) Feared extinct in Valley, rare sighting revives hope of Eurasian otter's comeback Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance. Main Examination: General Studies III: Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation, environmental impact assessment What's the ongoing story: For three decades, the Eurasian otter, once an integral part of Kashmir's aquatic ecosystem, was thought to be extinct in the Valley. However, a rare sighting of the semi-aquatic mammal has now been reported in south Kashmir Key Points to Ponder: • Eurasian Otter-Know in brief • What is the IUCN status of the Eurasian otter? • Is Eurasian otter found in India? • 'The Eurasian otter, once an integral part of Kashmir's aquatic ecosystem, has now been reported in south Kashmir'- What does this symbolise? • Discuss the ecological significance of Eurasian otters and the importance of their conservation in India. • What are the reasons for the decline in Eurasian otter populations? Key Takeaways: • The otter, which has been globally classified as 'near threatened' by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), was spotted in the Lidder River in Srigufwara, south Kashmir. • While villagers initially thought it was a crocodile, wildlife officials identified it as an Eurasian otter after watching videos captured by the villagers. That was later confirmed through photographic evidence. • 'It has been confirmed as Eurasian otter,' Suhail Ahmad Wagar, the Wildlife Warden for south Kashmir, told The Indian Express. 'After it was reported, we set up CCTV surveillance, and we have captured it (on camera) at a few places.' Do You Know: • The Eurasian otter, locally known as Vuder, was an integral part of Kashmir's aquatic ecosystem and was abundantly found in the water bodies. Its presence was used to scare the children and keep them away from the water bodies. However, over the last three decades, it was not spotted in the water bodies of the Valley, and it was thought to be extinct in Kashmir. • The sudden decline in otters, a carnivorous mammal that feeds on fish and other aquatic fauna, was attributed to increased water pollution and hunting of the mammal for its fur. • Wildlife officials say that this is the third occasion this year that it has been spotted in the Valley. 'In May, it was first spotted in the Gurez valley,' Wagay said. 'It was also spotted in Heerpora (in south Kashmir's Shopian district).' • Wildlife officials say that the sighting of the mammal is encouraging and could help restore Kashmir's aquatic ecology. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Eurasian otter spotted in STR and Kanha-Pench corridor EXPRESS NETWORK Railway safety body gives final nod for Mizoram capital's first rail link Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance. Main Examination: General Studies III: Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways etc. What's the ongoing story: The Commission of Railway Safety (CRS) has authorised operations on the railway line from Hortoki to Sairang in Mizoram, the final clearance for a key stretch that will connect state capital Aizawl by rail for the first time. Key Points to Ponder: • What is north eastern railway connectivity project in India? • How many North-eastern state capitals are connected to the national railway network? • Know the strategic and economic significance of connecting Aizawl to the national railway network via the Bairabi–Sairang line. • What are the challenges faced during the construction of the Bairabi–Sairang railway project? • How PM Gati Shakti initiative helped in transforming infrastructure in the North-eastern region of India? • Know the potential benefits of the Bairabi–Sairang railway line in promoting tourism in Mizoram. Key Takeaways: • The Hortoki-Sairang line is the last leg of the larger 51.38-km Bairabi-Sairang rail project. • Sairang is a satellite town of Aizawl, around 20 km from the city. Bairabi in Kolasib district, near the border with Assam, has so far been the only railhead in Mizoram. The inspection by the CRS, a railway safety audit body under the Ministry of Civil Aviation, is the final step before train operations commence. • A senior official of the Ministry of Railways said the 33.86-km Hortoki-Sairang stretch was inspected by Sumeet Singhal, Commissioner of Railway Safety (CRS), Northeast Frontier Circle, between June 6 to June 10. The formal inauguration of the full Bairabi-Sairang line will likely take place this month. • So far, trains have entered only up to 1.5 km in Mizoram. They have also not been running on the Bairabi to Hortoki section that was commissioned last year. With the commissioning of the final leg, Mizoram's capital is now integrated with the national railway network and trains are set to run on the complete stretch. • The 51.38-km Bairabi-Sairang New Line Railway Project comprises 48 tunnels (with a cumulative length of 12,853 metres), 55 major bridges and 87 minor bridges. The height of one of the bridges (bridge number 196) is 104 metres — which, for context, is 42 metres taller than the Qutub Minar. Do You Know: • The project also includes five road overbridges and 6 road under bridges. This project is divided into four sections: Bairabi-Hortoki, Hortoki- Kawnpui, Kawnpui-Mualkhang and Mualkhang-Sairang. • The Bairabi-Sairang project is part of a broader push by the Ministry of Railways to connect all northeast state capitals by rail. This involves numerous new line and doubling projects across Assam, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Manipur and Tripura. Rail work is yet to take off in Meghalaya over years of opposition by local groups. • According to data tabled by the Ministry of Railways in Lok Sabha on March 19 this year, overall, as of April 1, 2024, there were 18 railway projects (13 new line and 5 doubling) with a total length of 1,368 km and an estimated cost of `74,972 crore at various stages of planning and implementation in the northeast, including Assam. Of this, 313 km of track length has been commissioned. An expenditure of Rs 40,549 crore had been incurred up to March 2024. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Aizawl becomes fourth N-E capital with rail link, trial run successful Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme: 1. If you travel by road from Kohima to Kottayam, what is the minimum number of States within India through which you can travel, including the origin and the destination? (2017) (a) 6 (b) 7 (c) 8 (d) 9 EXPLAINED Drone warfare & India Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance. Main Examination: General Studies II: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India's interests What's the ongoing story: Ukraine's Operation Spider's Web and the recent India-Pakistan hostilities in the wake of Operation Sindoor underline the salience of drones — specifically ones sent out in swarms — in modern warfare. Relatively low-cost, low-tech drones pose significant challenges to traditional militaries, one which countries, including India, are racing to overcome Key Points to Ponder: • Ukraine's major drone strike on Russian military planes-what you about the same? • Why the recent Ukraine's major drone strike on Russian military planes is termed as Russia's Trojan horse moment? • What is a FPV drone? • Why the attack changes the rules of battlefield engagement? • What can be the strategic implications of Ukraine's Operation 'Spider's Web' on the dynamics of modern warfare? Key Takeaways: • Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) date back to World War II and the Korean War, where they were used for training anti-aircraft gunners and in specific offensive missions. Their modern military usage took off in the 1990s, after being successfully deployed in the Gulf War of 1991. • The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict of 2020 marked a turning point in drone warfare: Azerbaijan's use of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 and Israeli Harop drones devastated Armenian defences, decisively shifting the conflict's dynamics in favour of Baku. • Ukraine has notably used 'first-person view' (FPV) racing drones to target tanks, chase individual soldiers and small units, and, most notably, bomb Russian air bases. Do You Know: • Since 2020, India has ramped up its counter-drone infrastructure, deploying a layered defence that blends indigenous technology, EW, and air defence systems. Key systems include: —Akashteer Air Defence Control System: Developed by Bharat Electronics Ltd, it integrates with the Indian Air Force's integrated command network for real-time tracking; —Bhargavastra: Solar Defence and Aerospace Ltd's weapon system fires 64 micro-rockets in salvos to eliminate drone swarms; —DRDO's Anti-Drone System: It offers 360-degree radar coverage, with both jamming (soft kill) and laser (hard kill) capabilities. Drones can be detected up to 4 km away, and neutralised within a 1 km radius; and —Indrajaal: An AI-powered grid from a Hyderabad startup that combines jammers, spoofers, and intelligence to protect areas up to 4,000 sq km. Already deployed at naval sites in Gujarat and Karnataka. • During the May 2025 swarm attacks, the IAF activated its Integrated Counter-UAS Grid, alongside conventional radars, guns, and missiles, neutralising attempted strikes on 15 military bases and several urban targets. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Operation Sindoor | How India's air defence shield works: Inside the IACCS command system Why the Census 2027 is critical for India's economic growth & development Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Indian Polity and Governance-Constitution, Political System, Panchayati Raj, Public Policy, Rights Issues, etc. Mains Examination: • General Studies I: population and associated issues • General Studies II: Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors and issues arising out of their design and implementation. What's the ongoing story: The Government of India has announced that the next Census will be conducted in two phases over 2026 and 2027. The effective date for which it will provide all the data will be March 1, 2027. Key Points to Ponder: • What is Census? • What kind of data is published in the Census? • What is the difference between Census, caste census and SECC? • What are the main objectives for conducting the next census? • How could the upcoming census affect political representation in various states? • What is the significance of delimitation in relation to Lok Sabha elections? • How might caste data collection impact future government policies? • What are some potential challenges in implementing caste-based data in the census? Key Takeaways: • India has undergone a Census once every decade since 1881; regardless of who ruled over the country and any calamity. However, the link was broken when India failed to conduct the Census for 2021 in the wake of the Covid pandemic. It is noteworthy that the delay in India's case — 6 years — is much longer than in most other countries (including India's neighbours such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka). • Explaining the delay, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) spokesperson posted the following on X: 'Covid disrupted all sectors, including education. Around 30 lakh enumerators are needed for the Census and most of them are primary school teachers. Conducting the Census post-Covid could have disrupted primary education immensely.' • One, the caste census, or the collection of caste data along with all the other data. Two, the possible usage of Census 2027 data for the purposes of delimitation, which is essentially an exercise that will entail rebalancing the state-wise share of Lok Sabha seats based on population. Most of the southern states, which were more effective in population control over the past 50 years, stand to lose electoral representation relative to northern states, which failed to control their population growth as effectively. • At one level, the fact that caste and delimitation are heavily politicised, warn some demographers, may vitiate the quality and credibility of the Census data. This may happen as people attempt to tweak their answers on questions (such as caste and language etc.) in a manner that, in their view, suits their politics instead of providing an unbiased response capturing the reality. • The national Census provides the fundamental statistical basis for all other types of surveys and analysis in the country. The Census isn't just the complete enumeration of all Indians. Rather, it is as complete an image of India as possible, as it collects data on age, gender, family status, economic status, unemployment, language, education, disability, migration — the list is pretty long. • In other words, the Census is a reality check for the country — a look in the mirror without which a self-portrait is not possible. In providing all this information for each Indian, the Census not only tells the story of how India changed in the past 10 years — in this case, the past 16 years — but also gives clues to how it might change in the next decade. Do You Know: The Census forms the basis of all future surveys and policymaking. • Inflation control and Interest rates-To be sure, retail inflation rate captures the rate at which the general price level in the economy went up from one year to the next. This rate, in turn, is based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and how much it rose over the past year. The CPI is essentially a basket of goods and services that retail consumers 'consume'. The index allocates different weights to different goods and services and then maps how prices of these components move in a weighted fashion. Food articles, for instance, have a weight of 46% in the total index. This is another way of saying that 46% of all the money spent by a common Indian is spent on food items. • A Census — say Census 2011 — provides one clear image of India at one specific point in time. That distribution of people — quality of their lives, their economic status, their migration patterns etc. — provides the base for all future surveys such as the consumption survey for government or the many of the market surveys done by private companies trying to figure out whether there is going to be more demand for cars ( and if so, what kind of cars) in rural India in the next 5 to 10 years. • Migration, Urbanisation and Governance-Migration, for instance, is one of the least understood variables. Often, population projections are based on fertility (birth rate) and mortality (death rate) assumptions. But there is a third variable that can, and often does, change the population of a village, city or state — that's internal migration in the country. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍The Census of 1931 ECONOMY For first time in 6 years, CPI inflation likely to have fallen below 3% in May Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Economic and Social Development Mains Examination: General Studies III: Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization, of resources, growth, development and employment. What's the ongoing story: India's headline retail inflation rate may have fallen below 3 per cent for the first time in just over six years in May 2025, with food prices again expected to drive down the overall trajectory even though vegetables became somewhat more expensive last month compared to April 2025. Key Points to Ponder: • What is CPI inflation? • How is it calculated? • What are its components? • What does the data show? • What is the significance? • What is Inflation? • Know the Types of Inflation like Moderate Inflation, Galloping Inflation, Hyper-Inflation, Stagflation, Deflation, Core Inflation etc. • What are the causes of Inflation in the present situation • How Inflation is Measured in India? • What is the Long term, Medium Term and Short-term impact of Inflation? • New Standard for Measuring Inflation in India and Old Standard for Measuring Inflation-Key Differences • Steps or Measures Taken by GOI to Control Inflation • What do you understand by Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Consumer Price Index? WPI and CPI is published by whom? • What's the RBI assessment on inflation recently? Key Takeaways: • Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), data for which will be released by the statistics ministry at 1600 IST on Thursday, was already at a multi-year low of 3.16 per cent in April 2025. • In May 2025, while some vegetables became dearer – potato and tomato prices rose 3 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively, from the previous month according to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs – prices of cereals and pulses cooled. The net effect, according to economists, was a decline in prices of essentials. Bank of Baroda's Essential Commodities Index, for instance, declined 0.6 per cent year-on-year last month – the first time the index has fallen since January 2019. • While the headline inflation rate is seen falling for the seventh month in a row in May 2025, core inflation – which measures the year-on-year price change for non-food-non-fuel items in the CPI basket – is seen edging up to around 4.2 per cent. • Core inflation, seen as an indicator of underlying demand pressures, has gradually risen since the middle of 2024, when it stood at 3.1 per cent. According to Nomura economists Aurodeep Nandi and Sonal Varma, the recent uptick in core CPI inflation should be looked through. • While the outlook for inflation is benign – the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last week cut its forecast for the current fiscal by 30 basis points (bps) to 3.7 per cent – the pace with which prices of certain food items are falling is decreasing. According to Union Bank of India, vegetable prices possibly rose in May 2025 on a month-on-month basis after consistently falling for six months. 'On-the-ground prices of most food segments, though, continue to slide but the pace of correction is losing ground,' the bank's economists, led by Kanika Pasricha, said in a note. Do You Know: • The CPI inflation is nothing but the rate of inflation that consumers face. It is different from the major inflation indicator — the wholesale price index-based inflation rate. According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), which releases the data, the consumer price index measures 'changes over time in general level of prices of a basket of selected goods and services that households acquire for the purpose of consumption'. At an all-India level, the current CPI basket comprises 299 items. • Apart from an aggregate index, consumer price indices are constructed for both rural and urban consumers as well. The 'base year' for the current series of indices is 2012. In other words, the price index is given a value of 100 for 2012 and changes from these price levels are then calculated to arrive at inflation rates for each good or service. • The CPI has six main components, each with differing weights and many more sub-components within them. The main components are—Food and beverages, Pan, tobacco and intoxicants, Clothing and footwear, Housing, Fuel and light and Miscellaneous (services such as education, health care etc.) • Among these, food articles currently weigh 45% of the total index. The second-biggest component is that of miscellaneous services. Within the food category, cereal prices are the biggest factor — they account for 9.67% of the total CPI. This means that a spike in prices of food articles like cereals, vegetables, milk and pulses tends to have the biggest impact in raising consumer inflation. And the reason why food articles have been given such a high weightage is that most Indian consumers tend to spend a considerable portion of their income towards meeting their food demand. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍What latest inflation data say PRELIMS ANSWER KEY 1.(b) For any queries and feedback, contact Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter. Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – IndianExpress UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X.
Hans India
14 minutes ago
- Hans India
The Top 5 Most Active Commodities for Trading in India
India's dynamic commodity markets offer many opportunities for traders and investors, fueled by the nation's immense consumption, agricultural backbone, and burgeoning industrial sector. While the direct ownership of physical commodities can be impractical, financial instruments such as futures contracts and Contracts for Difference (CFDs) provide accessible avenues for speculating on price movements and gaining exposure to these vital markets. In India, commodity futures trading is predominantly facilitated by two major exchanges: the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX). The MCX leads the non-agricultural segment to trade commodities, encompassing precious metals, industrial metals, and energy, while the NCDEX specializes in agricultural commodities. This article will explore India's five most actively traded commodities, exploring their market dynamics. 1. Gold: The Eternal Safe Haven and Cultural Cornerstone Gold holds a unique and revered position in the Indian psyche, extending far beyond mere investment to encompass deep cultural and traditional significance. It is an indispensable part of weddings and festivals, and a crucial generational asset. This deep-rooted domestic demand and its global status as a safe-haven asset firmly establish gold as one of India's most actively traded commodities. Market Dynamics and Price Influencers: Cultural and Festival Demand: Indian festivals and wedding seasons consistently drive significant gold demand, notably influencing local prices. Global Economic Conditions: During economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, or inflationary pressures, investors flock to gold as a store of value, pushing prices higher. Conversely, a strong global economy and rising interest rates (making fixed-income assets more appealing) can exert downward pressure. During economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, or inflationary pressures, investors flock to gold as a store of value, pushing prices higher. Conversely, a strong global economy and rising interest rates (making fixed-income assets more appealing) can exert downward pressure. Central Bank Monetary Policies: Interest rate decisions by major central banks (such as the US Federal Reserve) significantly impact gold prices. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. US Dollar Strength: Gold is predominantly priced in US dollars. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially dampening demand and vice versa. Inflation Expectations: Gold is widely regarded as a hedge against inflation. When inflation rises, a currency's purchasing power declines, prompting investors to seek refuge in assets like gold, which tend to retain their value. Gold is widely regarded as a hedge against inflation. When inflation rises, a currency's purchasing power declines, prompting investors to seek refuge in assets like gold, which tend to retain their value. Supply and Demand Fundamentals: Global mining output, recycling activities, and demand from jewelry manufacturers and industrial applications all influence price discovery. Global mining output, recycling activities, and demand from jewelry manufacturers and industrial applications all influence price discovery. Appeal for Traders: Gold's consistent liquidity, sensitivity to global macroeconomic factors, and traditional safe-haven appeal make it a popular choice for short-term speculative trading and long-term hedging against economic instability. 2. Crude Oil: The Global Economy's Energy Powerhouse Crude oil, often dubbed "black gold," is the lifeblood of the global economy. As a primary energy source for transportation, industrial production, and electricity generation, its price fluctuations have far-reaching implications. As a major oil importer, India is particularly sensitive to global crude oil price movements, making it an extremely active commodity for trading. Market Dynamics and Price Influencers: Global Supply and Demand Balance: The fundamental principle of supply and demand dictates crude oil prices. Economic growth fuels demand, while production levels from major oil-producing nations (OPEC+, US shale producers, Russia) directly influence supply. The fundamental principle of supply and demand dictates crude oil prices. Economic growth fuels demand, while production levels from major oil-producing nations (OPEC+, US shale producers, Russia) directly influence supply. Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts and instability in key oil-producing regions (e.g., the Middle East) can disrupt supply chains and trigger significant price spikes. Conflicts and instability in key oil-producing regions (e.g., the Middle East) can disrupt supply chains and trigger significant price spikes. OPEC Decisions: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) play a pivotal role in managing global oil supply through production quotas, directly impacting prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) play a pivotal role in managing global oil supply through production quotas, directly impacting prices. Key Economic Indicators: Industrial production data, manufacturing output, and global GDP growth forecasts all impact the outlook for crude oil demand. Industrial production data, manufacturing output, and global GDP growth forecasts all impact the outlook for crude oil demand. Currency Exchange Rates: The INR to USD exchange rate is a crucial factor for India. A weaker rupee makes imported oil more expensive in terms of local currency. The INR to USD exchange rate is a crucial factor for India. A weaker rupee makes imported oil more expensive in terms of local currency. Technological Advancements: Developments in extraction methods (like fracking) can increase supply, while advancements in renewable energy sources can influence long-term demand trends. Trading Avenues in India: Appeal for Traders: Crude oil's high volatility and sensitivity to a wide array of global events provide ample opportunities for speculative traders. Its direct impact on inflation and economic growth makes it a crucial commodity for macro-focused traders. 3. Silver: The Dynamic Industrial Precious Metal While often in the shadow of gold, silver firmly holds its own as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. Its dual nature makes its price dynamics fascinating and frequently more volatile than gold. In India, silver is extensively used in jewelry, silverware, and various industrial applications, making it a prominent commodity in the trading landscape. Market Dynamics and Price Influencers: Industrial Demand: A substantial portion of silver's demand originates from industrial applications, including electronics, solar panels, the automotive industry, and medical devices. This makes its price highly sensitive to global industrial growth and technological advancements. A substantial portion of silver's demand originates from industrial applications, including electronics, solar panels, the automotive industry, and medical devices. This makes its price highly sensitive to global industrial growth and technological advancements. Investment Demand: Like gold, silver also functions as a safe-haven asset, attracting investment during economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures. Like gold, silver also functions as a safe-haven asset, attracting investment during economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures. Correlation with Gold Prices: Silver often moves in tandem with gold, though typically with higher volatility due to its smaller market size and significant industrial demand component. Silver often moves in tandem with gold, though typically with higher volatility due to its smaller market size and significant industrial demand component. Mining Output: Most silver is produced as a byproduct of mining other metals (such as lead, zinc, copper, and gold), making its supply somewhat inelastic to direct silver price changes. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of mining other metals (such as lead, zinc, copper, and gold), making its supply somewhat inelastic to direct silver price changes. Currency Fluctuations: Similar to gold, a stronger US dollar can make silver more expensive for international buyers, potentially impacting demand. Similar to gold, a stronger US dollar can make silver more expensive for international buyers, potentially impacting demand. Appeal for Traders: Silver's compelling combination of industrial utility and precious metal status makes it an attractive asset. Its higher volatility than gold can lead to larger profit opportunities, albeit with increased risk. 4. Natural Gas: The Evolving Transition Fuel Natural gas is an increasingly vital global energy source for electricity generation, industrial processes, and residential heating. Its clean-burning properties position it as a key transition fuel in the worldwide shift towards renewable energy. In India, growing domestic consumption and increasing industrial reliance on natural gas contribute significantly to its active trading on commodity exchanges. Market Dynamics and Price Influencers: Seasonal Demand: Natural gas prices are highly influenced by seasonal weather patterns, with demand typically peaking during colder winter months (for heating) and hotter summer months (for air conditioning, impacting electricity generation). Natural gas prices are highly influenced by seasonal weather patterns, with demand typically peaking during colder winter months (for heating) and hotter summer months (for air conditioning, impacting electricity generation). Supply Levels: Production levels from major gas-producing regions (e.g., US, Russia, Qatar), storage levels, and infrastructure developments (pipelines, LNG terminals) significantly impact supply. Production levels from major gas-producing regions (e.g., US, Russia, Qatar), storage levels, and infrastructure developments (pipelines, LNG terminals) significantly impact supply. Geopolitical Events: Disruptions to pipeline flows or political tensions involving major gas suppliers can cause significant price volatility. Disruptions to pipeline flows or political tensions involving major gas suppliers can cause significant price volatility. Inventory Reports: Weekly inventory reports from major consumer nations (like the US) provide crucial insights into supply-demand balances and often trigger short-term price movements. Weekly inventory reports from major consumer nations (like the US) provide crucial insights into supply-demand balances and often trigger short-term price movements. Competition from Other Fuels: The price of natural gas can be influenced by the competitiveness of other energy sources, such as coal and crude oil. The price of natural gas can be influenced by the competitiveness of other energy sources, such as coal and crude oil. Appeal for Traders: Natural gas offers substantial price volatility, particularly due to seasonal demand and geopolitical factors. This creates frequent trading opportunities for those who can accurately assess market sentiment and supply-demand dynamics. 5. Copper: "Dr. Copper" - The Economic Barometer Copper, often affectionately dubbed "Dr. Copper" due to its uncanny ability to predict economic health, is a critical industrial metal. Its widespread use in electrical wiring, construction, manufacturing, and emerging green technologies (electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure) makes its demand a strong indicator of global economic activity. India's accelerating infrastructure development and manufacturing growth contribute to the active trading of copper. Market Dynamics and Price Influencers: Global Economic Growth: Copper demand is a fundamental building block of modern economies, and it directly correlates with global GDP growth, industrial output, and construction activity. Copper demand is a fundamental building block of modern economies, and it directly correlates with global GDP growth, industrial output, and construction activity. Infrastructure Spending: Government and private sector investments in infrastructure projects (roads, railways, power grids) drive significant copper demand. Government and private sector investments in infrastructure projects (roads, railways, power grids) drive significant copper demand. Urbanization and Industrialization: Rapid urbanization and industrialization in developing economies, particularly China (the most significant consumer), are major drivers of copper demand. Rapid urbanization and industrialization in developing economies, particularly China (the most significant consumer), are major drivers of copper demand. Green Energy Transition: The increasing adoption of electric vehicles, solar power, and wind energy, which are highly copper-intensive, represents a significant long-term demand driver. The increasing adoption of electric vehicles, solar power, and wind energy, which are highly copper-intensive, represents a significant long-term demand driver. Supply Disruptions: Mining disruptions due to labor strikes, natural disasters, or geopolitical issues in major producing countries (e.g., Chile, Peru) can impact supply and prices. Mining disruptions due to labor strikes, natural disasters, or geopolitical issues in major producing countries (e.g., Chile, Peru) can impact supply and prices. Inventory Levels: Global inventory levels of copper in warehouses provide crucial insights into the immediate supply-demand balance. Global inventory levels of copper in warehouses provide crucial insights into the immediate supply-demand balance. Appeal for Traders: Copper's strong correlation with global economic health makes it an attractive commodity for traders seeking to capitalize on broad economic trends. Its integral role in the green energy transition also provides a compelling long-term outlook for potential price appreciation. Conclusion: Navigating India's Vibrant Commodity Market The Indian commodity market offers a wealth of opportunities for astute traders and investors. Gold, Crude Oil, Silver, Natural Gas, and Copper consistently stand out as the most active commodities, each possessing unique drivers and trading characteristics. Futures contracts on established exchanges like MCX and NCDEX provide regulated and highly liquid avenues for participation, offering transparency and robust trading infrastructure. Thorough research, robust risk management strategies, and a comprehensive awareness of domestic and international market dynamics are essential for success in India's dynamic commodity trading arena.
Hindustan Times
15 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
PM Modi's meeting with Canadian PM important opportunity to reset relationship: MEA
NEW DELHI: The upcoming meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Canadian counterpart Mark Carney on the margins of the G7 Summit is an opportunity to reset bilateral ties based on mutual respect and sensitivity to each other's concerns, the external affairs ministry said on Thursday. India-Canada ties rapidly deteriorated after former Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau alleged in September 2023 that Indian government agents were linked to the murder of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. India had dismissed the charge as 'absurd' and accused the Canadian government of giving safe haven to separatists and radical elements that posed a threat to Indian diplomats. Modi and Carney had their first phone conversation on June 6, when the Indian prime minister accepted an invitation to attend the outreach session of the G7 Summit to be hosted by Canada in the resort of Kananaskis on June 15-17. 'We believe that the forthcoming meeting between the two leaders on the sidelines of the G7 Summit will offer an important opportunity to exchange views on bilateral and global issues, and to explore pathways to reset the relationship based on mutual respect, shared interests and sensitivity to each other's concerns,' external affairs ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told a weekly news briefing. He didn't go into details of the concerns of both countries and said India's views on 'some of these issues have already been shared publicly in considerable detail'. Besides accusing the Canadian side of not doing enough to rein in Khalistani elements that threatened Indian diplomatic facilities and diplomats, New Delhi had also said the previous Trudeau administration was providing space to secessionist and radical forces inimical to Indian interests. When Carney called Modi last week, the leaders had an 'opportunity to reflect on the India-Canada relationship and the way forward', Jaiswal said, in an apparent reference to the cratering of relations over the past two years. India and Canada, Jaiswal noted, are 'vibrant democracies bound by shared democratic values, a steadfast commitment to the rule of law, and vibrant people-to-people ties'. A readout issued by the Canadian Prime Minister's Office on the phone call between Modi and Carney said at the time that 'there was agreement to continued law enforcement dialogue and discussions addressing security concerns'. The Indian readout on the conversation had made no reference to this issue. Jaiswal responded to a question on the Canadian reference to a dialogue on security concerns by saying that there were existing mechanisms between Indian and Canadian law enforcement agencies that have 'discussed issues of mutual security concern over a period of time'. He added, 'This engagement is likely to continue.' The trial of four Indian men arrested for alleged involvement in the killing of Nijjar is currently underway in Canada. At the same time, both sides have shown interest in discussing the activities of trans-national criminal gangs, including elements with ties to Khalistani separatists. The planned meeting between Modi and Carney is being seen as the first real opportunity in almost two years to repair bilateral ties. Besides the deep people-to-people ties between India and Canada, the Carney government is interested in forging stronger economic ties with India in the face of strained relations with the US due to the trade policies of the Donald Trump administration. Carney has defended his decision to invite Modi to the G7 Summit following criticism of the move by Sikh groups in Canada. He has said India is central to several supply chains, and that the decision to invite Modi was made after consulting other G7 member countries. India is the fifth largest economy and at the heart of a crucial supply chains, he said. India's presence is 'essential' when the G7 countries address key issues such as security, energy, the digital future and critical minerals at the summit, he added. 'There are certain countries that should be at the table for those discussions,' Carney said. Among the priorities listed by Canada for the G7 Summit are strengthening security, countering foreign interference and transnational crime, building energy security, accelerating the digital transition, and fortifying critical mineral supply chains.
