Earnings soft, but broader market shows strength: Gurmeet Chadha
"I would have probably been happy with early double digit earning growth, but
Nifty
is around 8-8.5 and if you see the broader market the first 600-700 stocks that is about almost around 10%," says
Gurmeet Chadha
,
Complete Circle Consultants
.
I was just going through one of your social media profiles which says that sher puttar after having Chola Bhatura, it was an image of a lion who was just sleeping and resting. So, is that an indication that given the good up move in the markets, one should now take it lightly, take it easy, and maybe have some rest.
Gurmeet Chadha:
Some of it yes. See, people who did not do much, did not bother too much about tariffs and border issues and Trump, etc, have actually been rewarded.
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I mean, the current problems will disappear, some new problems will come in next three to four months and that is the nature of the market. But from broad macro perspective, things are slightly getting better for India. Crude being at $60 is a huge boost over the medium to long term. Interest rates have come down. System liquidity is positive.
RBI has pivoted and all our high frequency indicators whether it is PMI, whether it is IIP numbers, whether it is GST tax collections are showing some uptick. The earning season so far, I believe, has been a little soft. I would have probably been happy with early double digit earning growth, but Nifty is around 8-8.5 and if you see the broader market the first 600-700 stocks that is about almost around 10%.
I have also been going through your Twitter because after the tweet Srishti mentioned, I was also inclined to take a look and what I was thinking about and this is something that you have also tweeted about is the
cash position
that a lot of fund managers, retail investors, a lot of players in the market have been accumulating recently. But the kind of runup that we have seen over the last week, especially on Monday and on expiry day on Thursday, sitting on cash would have made someone feel really-really bad. So, what would be your
portfolio strategy
going ahead given that you also have gold that on one hand is cooling off,
Indian equities
seem to have taken off from here, but we do not know what the road ahead looks like. How would you position cash in your portfolio?
Gurmeet Chadha:
See, each fund manager uses cash differently and there is too much hue and cry being made about mutual funds sitting on three lakh crore of cash. Three lakh crore of cash is not even 6-7% of the assets the industry manages. So, I do not think so it is a big number and same guys who were sitting on cash who were being praised in February, so cash is always a double-edged sword.
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Somebody wants to keep cash for opportunities, somebody believes in being fully deployed saying that the mandate is to be in equity, so it is very difficult to figure out who is right and who is wrong.
Unless the cash is 20-30% I do not think so that should be a subject of discussion. It is more to feel some pockets fund managers are not okay or comfortable with valuations and sometimes you want to wait for better opportunities in terms of stock picking.
I think broad portfolio allocation as I said it is good to be a little more balanced right now. US 30-year yield is around 5%, 10-year is upwards of 4.5 and this will create lot of issues in US economy and will probably make the US government do more trade deals earlier and lessen the tariff impact.
Also, my sense is Fed will step in with either liquidity fusion or rate cut at some point of time and some larger shift has to happen. So, US exceptionalism, their bonds as well as equity have been over-owned now for 10-15 years and a large chunk of that will shift both to gold, emerging market bonds and equities.
And as I said with crude being lower, our fiscal numbers being good, fiscal discipline being there, RBI like to give a large dividend this week, hopefully maybe close to three lakh crore, our macro picture is looking good, so keep some long duration bonds in the portfolio, maybe 5-10% in gold and silver, and equity be a little more largecapish in my view and gradually build it up. But second half of the year is likely to be better.
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