London is no longer Starmer's personal fiefdom

Telegraph

4 days ago

It has long been claimed that London is a Labour city. This can be easily disputed: a quick look at history shows our capital city's political past has been anything but uniform.
Even the recent memory of Mayoral elections paints a picture of intellectual diversity. Boris Johnson defeated Ken Livingstone twice; this cemented his reputation as a Heineken Tory who could reach parts of the country other members of his party couldn't.Ken Livingstone himself trounced New Labour in the 2000 Mayoral election, humiliating them into third place (although he was later readmitted by 2004).
One could also point out that, in the 1980s, the SDP-Liberal Alliance took safe seats from Labour (Bermondsey and Woolwich) and helped the Tories to win Labour seats in Lewisham, Lambeth, Southwark and Croydon.
Still, London's reputation as a Labour fiefdom is sealed in the minds of many: every constituency in inner-city London apart from Jeremy Corbyn's Islington North is currently held by a Labour MP. For how much longer can this dominance be sustained?
A few weeks ago, Zarah Sultana left the Labour Party and announced she was co-founding a new party with Corbyn. The warning signs of a split had been there for months. A group called 'Collective' aimed at creating such a party, and various Left, Green and Muslim groups – such as TUSC, Liverpool Community Independents, Just Stop Oil, The Muslim Vote – have been involved in this process.
There have also been whispers outside the Labour Party tent. Zack Polanski is the favourite to win this summer's Green party leadership contest. Standing on a Corbynite ticket, Polanski has won the support of Corbynistas such as Owen Jones, Grace Blakeley and Michael Chessum.
Polanski himself has spoken warmly of Corbyn and Sultana and has voiced support for Clive Lewis, the Left-wing Labour MP for Norwich South to join the Green Party.
The Right should resist the temptation to roll its eyes, remembering all too well that Corbyn oversaw the worst Labour defeat in its history less than a decade ago. While a new Left party has no chance of forming a national government, it could lead to a significant realignment in British politics. It would be the first time since a Leader of the Labour Party set up a new political party since Ramsay MacDonald was expelled and formed National Labour back in 1931.
2024 was the best ever result for forces to the Left of Labour in British political history, surpassing the Communists in the 1930s. According to the think tank More in Common, a new party led by Corbyn – without a name, funding or even official formation – already garners 10 per cent of the vote.
Nowhere would this popularity be more concentrated than in London. One MRP poll shows that a new Corbyn party would win 10 seats, taking three directly from Labour (Ilford North, Ilford South and Bethnal Green and Stepney). A pact with the Greens would place many more red seats under threat.
A Corbyn-Green alliance in Hackney South and Shoreditch would currently obtain 45.7 per cent of the vote against Labour's 37.2 per cent. In Lewisham North, meanwhile, Labour would get 35.8 per cent and the Red-Green coalition would get 41.8 per cent. Labour would also lose out in Peckham, Tottenham, Poplar and Limehouse. Holborn and St Pancras – the constituency represented by the Prime Minister – would be too close for comfort: according to current projections, Starmer would return 35.7 per cent of the vote, but Corbyn and the Greens combined would take 33.9 per cent.
One of the ironies is that such a result would be put down to growing 'diversity' of London, with some ethnic minority (British Muslims in particular) voters backing candidates that may hem to their sectarian concerns. But while some of the affluent white ex-Corbynistas in Hackney and Peckham will show up again at the polls for 'Magic Grandpa' Jez, black voters are still more likely to stay loyal to Keir Starmer's Labour Party.
It's not just Labour's Left flank that looks set to jump ship. The rising stature of the Reform party could see the Labour Party vote essentially extinguished in working class East London. This would be psychologically catastrophic for Labour. The East End was home to Matchworkers' Strike, the 1889 Dockers' Strike and the Battle of Cable Street in 1936. George Lansbury lived in Bow Road and Clement Attlee was mayor of Stepney and MP for Limehouse. For the Labour Party to cease to have any representation in an area of huge symbolism for the party and the movement would be the urban equivalent of the collapse of Scotland and the northern 'red wall'.
One should of course be careful of putting too much store in polling. But as next year's local elections in London draw near, Starmer should beware: there are many willing to take advantage of his complacency. If he fails to respond to the danger, the legend of a forever red London will be impossible to sustain. The party of Keir Hardie – who was a West Ham South MP – may soon find itself boxed out of our nation's capital.