Trump's changing stance on Israel-Iran war hints Netanyahu's plans for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is costing Jerusalem dearly
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US President Donald Trump has in the last couple of days taken an increasing hawkish stand on the Israel-Iran war and threatened to send in American military assets into the conflict. What started as a surprise Israeli attack on Iranian military and nuclear facilities on June 12 has almost a week later slowly turned into another war of attrition, forcing Trump on June 17 to call for the Islamic nation's 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" in a post on Truth Social.While Israel hit the Iranian military leadership and the top echelons of nuclear scientists hard, eliminating several of them in the first few days, the regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran responded quickly by launching a barrage of missiles and drones.Many Iranian missiles and drones penetrated the much-vaunted Israeli multi-layered defence and targets like a Mossad training facility in Herzliya, Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot, the 'technological backbone' of Israel's security sector, and a few others. One Iranian missile landed near the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) headquarters in Tel Aviv and another scored a direct on the Haifa oil refinery.Trump's assertion that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons and his strong statements indicating the use of US military to help Jerusalem destroy Tehran's nuclear facilities, and also effect a regime change indicate the war is not going according to Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plan.Netanyahu has vowed to annihilate Iran's nuclear weapons ambition which he claims was just weeks away from developing a bomb. The Khamenei regime has categorically denied Netanyahu's change and even the US intelligence agencies have stated that Iran was years away from getting its hands on a nuclear weapon.Yet, the two sides continue to fire missiles and drones at each other with Israel claiming to have established air superiority over Iran. Israeli Air Force jets have pounded Iran after refuelling over Syria, hit many of its missile bases and destroyed several launchers, indicating that Netanyahu and IDF claims are true to a large extent.Iran's missile barrage has become much smaller than it was on the first couple of days of the conflict. This could mean the IDF has indeed degraded the Iranian Army and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ' offensive capabilities.Israeli defensive umbrella has been firing interceptors after interceptors whenever an Iranian missile is over its skies. The cost of operating the Iron Dome David's Sling , Arrows, Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) ( the last two supplied by the US) missile defense systems is massive and if Iran is not subjugated soon, the Israeli administration will need outside help to do the same.Israeli news portal The Marker calculated the cost involved in operating the country's defensive systems and stated that the country was spending 1 billion shekels ($285 million) every night in trying to neutralize Iranian attacks.The number are also echoed by a former senior IDF officer Brigadier General (res.) Re'em Aminach. Speaking to Ynet News, Brig Gen (res.) Aminach calculated Israel was blowing up to $725 million per day to carry out the military operations against Iran. He added that IDF spent about 5.5 billion shekels (about $1.45 billion) in just the first two days of war with Iran. The cost included the amount spent on attacking targets in Iran as well as protecting the country from the counter strikes.Similarly, the Iranian too do not have an endless supply of ballistic and hypersonic missiles. Its forces cannot keep on launching them for a longer period, and its military leadership has realised it.But it's the cost factor that matters as firing a missile is much cheaper than intercepting it, and Israel may not be able to do so for much longer, a Washington Times report claims. The IDF may be able to sustain the current level of defensive posture for only about 10 or 12 days, and will need the US intervention if the war drags on longer, the report adds.If the US does not join the war, the IDF will have to start taking a call on which Iranian missiles to intercept if Tehran continues with its counter.Israeli missile expert Tal Inbar claims that Arrow missiles cost $3 million each, and they are being deployed in large numbers to stop Iran's attacks. Inbar, affiliated with the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance in Virginia (US), pointed out that Iron Dome is not effective against ballistic or hypersonic missiles, and can only intercept smaller rockets fired by groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.The Netanyahu government claims Iran fired 400 missiles out of which only 35 made an impact, indicating a success rate of 90 per cent by its interceptors. With the IDF claiming to have hit several of Iran's missile production facilities, the country's success in replenishing its arsenal will also degrade.To counter the slower rate of missile production and destruction of many of its launchers, Iran can also opt to keep testing Israel's defenses by launching a smaller number of projectiles. The lower number of missiles fired in the last couple of days (from 150 missiles on the first day to just 10-15 now) could point to this fact.It could also opt for its older and less accurate missiles to increase the cost on Israel as in most cases it takes three to five interceptors to stop one projectile from Iran. A single THAAD deployed by Israel costs $12 million dollars while Iran's most modern missile Fattah-1 costs about $200,000.Fattah-1 flies at hypersonic speed and some videos of the war shows Israeli firing nearly a dozen THAADs to intercept one such missile. The cost - $200,000 for Iran and $144 million dollars for Israel.This is where Trump's demand asking for Iran's "unconditional surrender" and statement 'I'm not too much in the mood to negotiate with Iran' aboard Air Force One on June 17 assume significance.Without the US help in countering Iranian missiles and using its 30,000 pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) GBU-57A/B bunker busters to target the deep Fordow nuclear facility, Israel may not be able top bring the Ayatollah regime to its knees.
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