Zohran Mamdani is surging

Politico

28-02-2025

IS THIS A MAMDANI MOMENT?: While the New York political world braces for former Gov. Andrew Cuomo's imminent entrance into the New York City mayoral race, Zohran Mamdani, the millennial Democratic socialist with a savvy social media sense is enjoying a boomlet.
In June, the Queens assemblymember's candidacy announcement in October seemed like a longshot.
He's since raised over $3.4 million with public matching funds, collected over 7,000 donations, and boasts an average contribution of $74, which his team says proves true grassroots support. He said he expects to raise $8 million through the city's matching funds program. He also churns out buzzy social media videos and takes unapologetic policy stances, which earn him criticism from rivals that he's unrealistic and unyielding.
In short, Mamdani is running strong in the ideological lane of the energized left — a strategy which, when coupled with his criticisms of Israel, would appear to have a ceiling in a New York City Democratic primary, but one that's getting him a lot of attention nonetheless.
'I don't think this movement has a ceiling,' Mamdani told Playbook, noting that Bernie Sanders got 47 percent of the vote in Republican-heavy Staten Island in 2016. 'I do think there's a majority of New Yorkers who feel left behind by the economic policies of this mayoral administration and by the economic policies of today, and they are hungry for a relentless focus on an economic agenda.'
Now those who are working to oppose him — and who have been leery of Mamdani's aggressively anti-Israel stances from the start — are worried.
'They're running a really smart operation, this is what I've been warning people about,' said Sara Forman, executive director of the New York Solidarity Network and the treasurer of Solidarity PAC. Both were formed to challenge antisemitic politicians in New York's state and local government and neither is yet involved in the mayor's race at the moment, Forman said.
Forman expressed grave concerns about Mamdani's positions against Israel — like when the assemblymember said 'the path toward peace can only begin by ending the occupation and dismantling apartheid' just one day after Hamas' Oct. 7 terrorist attacks in Israel.
'Everybody underestimates it,' she said of his campaign. 'They are going to wake up and he is going to be in a position to potentially be the nominee.'
Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres, who is backing Cuomo, agrees: 'The DSA candidate is treacherously smart and should not be underestimated,' he told Jewish Insider.
A poll shared with Playbook — paid for by Mamdani's campaign and executed by EMC Research — shows him making it into the final round of ranked choice voting before Cuomo clears 50 percent.
Mamadani's analysis, which quizzed 700 voters by phone, email and text from Jan. 23 to 27, found that Cuomo, City Comptroller Brad Lander, former Comptroller Scott Stringer and Mamdani reach the sixth round of ranked choice voting, in that order.
Another poll commissioned by Cuomo-aligned Tusk Strategies this week found Mamdani in second place — an ideal outcome for the moderate ex-governor and anyone looking to fundraise for a PAC that would benefit Cuomo. The Tusk poll showed Mamdani beating out a host of New York insiders — including Mayor Eric Adams — who entered city politics before the Ugandan-born 33-year-old could even vote.
'We always were setting up a campaign that could win this race,' Mamdani told Playbook. 'This is indicative of what we've always thought, which is that there has been a misreading of New York City's electorate, and while there's been so much talk of us moving to the right, I think what people are also missing is that people want to vote for something.'
To that end, he was among just three candidates at a forum this week to unequivocally promise a rent freeze — a policy determined by what's supposed to be an independent board of mayoral appointees. The others were state Sen. Jessica Ramos and former Assembly Member Michael Blake, who have yet to qualify for matching funds.
A rising Zohran is a good scenario for Cuomo. The former governor would likely find it easy to fundraise in a race that pits the moderate Democrat against a young assemblymember who wants to see the NYPD budget slashed and the minimum wage raised to $30.
And Mamdani knows this.
'When we face the inevitable opposition spending because of the audacity to believe in universal human rights, what gives me confidence is I believe the vast majority of New Yorkers want that politics of consistency,' Mamdani said. 'They want to know where politicians stand on an issue, regardless of who it applies to, regardless of who they're speaking about.'
He acknowledged the prospect of independent expenditures running ads criticizing him and said, 'they will be competing with our own narrative about this campaign.'
On the ground, he has a sprawling operation: the campaign says it's knocked on 56,000 doors, has over 4,000 volunteers and launches between 20 to 30 neighborhood canvasses every week.
Not to mention, even decidedly moderate Democrats privately envy his social media operation.
Mamdani's campaign tells us his social media is spearheaded by filmmaker duo Melted Solids, who produce videos that lead to over 20.6 million impressions on X, 200,000 likes on TikTok and 8 million Instagram views with 30,000 new followers in the last 90 days.
But he's getting heat from some opponents who say his planned expansion of services — like free buses, child care and city-owned grocery stores — would be nearly impossible to pay for.
'I find there's a lot of people that have magic wands in this race,' Lander told the outlet Hell Gate in January.
The comptroller once previously joined the Democratic Socialists of America and voted against a budget because it didn't properly defund the NYPD in his estimation. He has taken strides to move toward the center in this election, as some of his former stances are no longer popular, while Mamdani said he doesn't need to moderate his stances to become mayor.
Lander told the outlet, 'I have like, 75-page policy plans, not 'freeze the rent' or 'emanate a million homes.'' — Jason Beeferman
From the Capitol
CUOMO COULD SET RECORD: When Adams began his mayoral term, he declared himself the 'Biden of Brooklyn.' If Andrew Cuomo is elected this fall, he might have a better case to compare himself to Joe Biden.
Cuomo would be the 100th man to serve as New York City's mayor. And he would be the oldest ever elected to their first term for the post.
Abe Beame is the current record holder. He was 67 years, 9 months and 12 days old when he was sworn in at the start of 1974, besting the mark of 67 years, 9 months and 10 days set by William Lafayette Strong when he became the last pre-consolidation mayor in 1895.
Cuomo will be 68 years and 26 days old next New Year's.
That would make him the oldest new mayor since at least 1726. The birth certificate for Mayor Robert Lurting — whose tenure was notable for the creation of the city seal and for becoming the first mayor to die in office — seems to have been lost to history, so it's not clear how old he was at the time.
Of course, seniority hasn't been a drawback for American politicians in recent years. Biden was 78 years and 2 months old when he was sworn in, setting a record that was broken by President Donald Trump when he took the oath at 78 years and 7 months old last month. Gov. Kathy Hochul, currently 66, became one of the oldest-ever winners of a gubernatorial election in 2024.
Cuomo's first foray into mayoral politics was his father's 1977 campaign. Four of the eight highest-polling candidates he could be running against in June were not born before that election. — Bill Mahoney
FROM THE DELEGATION
NEUTRAL FOR NOW: Reps. Hakeem Jeffries and Adriano Espaillat aren't ready to publicly share their opinions on Cuomo's anticipated foray into the race for New York City mayor this weekend.
The New York Democrats tag teamed at an unrelated news conference earlier today in declining to weigh in.
'I have no comment on the possible entry of Governor Cuomo into a mayor's race until he makes that decision,' Jeffries said.
'Same here,' Espaillat said. 'I'm involved in a coalition of leaders, clergy leaders, business leaders and electors that will be listening to any and all the candidates for the mayor's race.'
What about the potential candidacy of Adrienne Adams, the City Council's first Black female speaker?
'There's a group of African American elected officials, clergy members, community leaders that I'm in conversation with. I expect that those conversations will accelerate,' Jeffries said, still reserving comment.
An endorsement from either congressional official could move votes in their respective districts. Jeffries is a politically moderate Black House minority leader from Brooklyn and Espaillat is the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus representing upper Manhattan and the Bronx.
But Jeffries signaled he may stay out of the June primary altogether. (He endorsed Maya Wiley over Eric Adams in 2021.)
'I have no intention at this moment of endorsing anyone until a candidate emerges from the Democratic primary,' he said.
Jeffries did have a bit more to say on Cuomo earlier this week in Washington and it was helpful to the former governor.
'I think he'd be a candidate that a lot of people, as I've heard from the district that I represent, would be very interested in checking out,' the House leader told Spectrum News. — Emily Ngo
FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
ANTI-CUOMO PAC: A new anti-Cuomo independent expenditure taking shape and reported here for the first time is taking aim at the former governor's calling card, a reputation for being an effective manager, in a three-page memo to 'interested parties.'
The memo from New Yorkers for Better Leadership includes news clips critical of Cuomo's handling of Covid, New York City mass transit and tax breaks that failed to produce jobs. The missive could serve as a blueprint for Cuomo's likely Democratic foes when he jumps into the mayoral primary, a move that is expected this weekend.
'In short, Governor Cuomo is not just a bad man, he was a bad governor,' the memo states. 'New Yorkers deserve better leadership, not more of the incompetence and chaos that got us here.'
Previous super PAC spending in the long lead up to Cuomo's entrance in the race has not impacted his poll position. And his team believes the Covid leadership record can be a strength for him, while the attacks have been politically motivated as revealed in a DOJ inspector general's report last year.
The PAC has hired Lauren Hitt, a longtime Democratic operative who has worked for Kamala Harris, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and longtime Cuomo nemesis Bill de Blasio.
The group is yet to disclose its donors, but will do so as required under law. The entity is separate from the group that aired a six-figure radio and digital campaign knocking Cuomo's record. — Nick Reisman
IN OTHER NEWS
— ICYMI: A deputy mayor for Mike Bloomberg could throw his hat into the mayor's race. (POLITICO)
— A GLIMPSE OF MORE CHARGES: Adams was going to be additionally charged with destroying evidence and instructing others to do the same. (The New York Times)
— IS AOC UNDER INVESTIGATION?: Trump's border czar Tom Homan asked the attorney general to investigate Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and now the congressmember wants to know if she's facing a federal probe. (POLITICO)
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