C Raja Mohan writes: Trump-era volatility has drawn India and Europe closer

Indian Express

a day ago

External Affairs Minister Subrah-manyam Jaishankar's visit to Europe this week and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's travel to Canada for the G7 summit present an opportunity to engage with the growing divergence within the West in the Trump era. Modi is also visiting Cyprus and Croatia, highlighting India's growing interest in Mediterranean Europe.
Delhi's new focus on Europe acknowledges the old continent's emerging role as a potential swing state in the shifting dynamic among major powers — the US, Russia, and China. Equally significant are the new possibilities for deeper India-Europe strategic cooperation. Jaishankar's visit aims to accelerate strategic dialogue with the EU while reinforcing the longstanding partnership with France and strengthening ties with Belgium. Modi's G7 summit attendance goes beyond resetting troubled bilateral ties with Canada — it offers a chance to recalibrate relations with a Western world experiencing a rare upheaval.
The G7 has long been the voice of the collective West, establishing norms for global economic governance, security, and political values. This elite club of industrial democracies — the US, Canada, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Japan — has arguably been far more consequential than the UNSC. The 2025 summit convenes amid deepening divisions within the G7. Since the last summit hosted by Canada in 2018, when his European colleagues confronted a defiant Donald Trump, these divisions have intensified. Unlike his predecessor Joe Biden, who emphasised alliances and partnerships, Trump views allies as 'free riders' who benefit from US security commitments but do not pay their fair share of the West's collective defence burden. He also believes allies have exploited America through unfair trade practices.
India needs to put Trump's equivocation in its recent conflict with Pakistan in perspective. Trump dismisses NATO — which America established in 1949 after spending much blood and treasure in the World Wars — and shows little regard for the Five Eyes, the historically close-knit Anglo-American alliance that predates NATO. His suggestion that Canada become a US state exemplifies how he has belittled Western unity and challenged long-held alliances. It should not be a surprise if he sets aside the precedent for Washington's de-hyphenation of Delhi and Islamabad.
Trump's return to the White House has thrown the G7 into disarray. While the US remains central to the group, its leadership of the West has come under a cloud. Trump's reluctance to defend Ukraine's sovereignty and eagerness to deal with Russian leader Vladimir Putin have alarmed European allies — particularly Germany, France, and the UK — creating a fundamental rift within the G7.
As the summit host in 2025, Canada has assumed a broader diplomatic role following its unresolved political tensions with Trump. Ottawa must now reconsider its strategic calculations, historically tied to the US. Prime Minister Mark Carney's invitation to Modi is part of a new effort to diversify Canada's international relations. So is his courtship of Europe. Ottawa is negotiating a landmark defence agreement with the EU to reduce its dependence on US security guarantees. Through the EU's Readiness 2030 initiative and advocacy for joint critical mineral strategies, Canada is developing a transatlantic identity more aligned with Europe than ever.
Under Keir Starmer, the UK — once the champion of transatlanticism — is reorienting toward Europe. While Brexit aimed to revitalise the Anglosphere, the 2025 UK-EU defence pact acknowledges Europe's strategic importance for Britain. Under Friedrich Merz, Germany has ended decades of strategic passivity. Constitutional debt brake reforms now enable massive defence and infrastructure investment, positioning Germany for European security leadership. Berlin's dual strategy — reaffirming NATO commitments while advocating European strategic autonomy — demonstrates both realism and ambition. Emmanuel Macron's well-known promotion of European 'strategic autonomy' has acquired a new edge in Trump's second presidency. France is offering to extend its nuclear umbrella over European partners and wants to expand Europe's defence capabilities in partnership with Germany.
Recovering from the Trump shock and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the UK, France, and Germany have intensified security collaboration. A rising Poland is now among Europe's leading powers. The Weimar Triangle of France, Germany and Poland is emerging as a powerful force in central Europe. Even as they take greater responsibility for European security, Britain, France, Germany, and Poland seek an expanded presence in Asia and the Indo-Pacific. Japan, the G7's sole Asian member, has long advocated for European engagement in Asian security amid China's assertiveness. Despite its ambivalence toward China, Europe is spreading its bets with deeper ties to ASEAN, Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea.
The India-Europe relationship has begun to move from the margins to the centre of major-power relations for both Delhi and Brussels. Europe's push for strategic autonomy aligns with India's worldview. The once-improbable India-Europe Free Trade Agreement now looks within reach. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor aims to reshape Eurasian connectivity and secure alternative supply chains amid the US-China rivalry. The EU-India Trade and Technology Council (TTC), established in 2023, advances cooperation in AI, quantum computing, outer space, and green technologies.
Europe's ReArm Plan (2025), targeting €800 billion for defence modernisation by 2030, creates opportunities for security collaboration with India. India's participation in EU defence mechanisms marks a shift from transactional arms deals to co-development.
For Europe, India has become an important part of its economic and military diversification strategy. For Delhi, Europe offers a much-needed depth to India's great-power relations. Together, they can enhance the prospects for a multipolar global order amid increasing signs of a bipolar domination by the US and China. India and Europe also have their task cut out as America turns inwards and unpredictable.
The writer is a distinguished fellow at the Council for Strategic and Defence Research and a contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express