Cuomo maintains double-digit lead over Mamdani, but his advantage is shrinking
NEW YORK — Andrew Cuomo continues to lead the Democratic primary for mayor, with one week left, but the gap between the former governor and top rival Zohran Mamdani is shrinking, according to a new poll from the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.
The survey of 1,350 likely Democratic primary voters conducted June 9 through June 12 found Cuomo outpacing Mamdani 55 percent to 45 percent in the seventh round of a ranked-choice voting simulation. Brad Lander, the city comptroller, was eliminated one round earlier at 13 percent and every other candidate was stuck in single digits.
The matchup excluded undecided voters; when Marist included them, Cuomo led Mamdani 43 to 35 in the final round.
A Marist poll in May showed Cuomo leading Mamdani by 24 points in the fifth round, excluding undecided voters.
The poll, which has a 4.3 margin of error, found Cuomo leading in the first-round of voting with 43 percent to Mamdani's 31 percent.
Undecided voters stand to shift the election: 11 percent haven't chosen a first-choice candidate while another 11 percent do not rank either Cuomo or Mamdani on their ballots.
The survey underscores the degree to which this has become a two-person contest, as Cuomo and a super PAC boosting him flood the airwaves with ads portraying Mamdani as radical and lacking relevant experience for the job. The lefty lawmaker, who has exceeded expectations this cycle, is hitting Cuomo over the scandals and missteps in his gubernatorial record. Early voting began over the weekend, ahead of the June 24 primary.
Survey respondents continued to report high dissatisfaction with the direction of New York City, with 77 percent saying it's headed in the wrong direction. Another 72 percent say they want candidates to oppose President Donald Trump. That portends poorly for Mayor Eric Adams, who is running as an independent in the general election, following a judge dropping his federal corruption case at the behest of President Donald Trump's Department of Justice.
Mamdani's campaign has shown significant momentum in recent weeks, with endorsements from Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Nydia Velázquez, as well as progressive icon Sen. Bernie Sanders.
And the Marist numbers bear out that surge. Last month, he was the first-choice for 18 percent of voters. Now 27 percent prefer the 33-year old assemblymember, while 38 percent picked the former governor.
Mamdani has gained ground among Latinos, winning that demographic 41 percent to Cuomo's 36 percent.
Voters are divided by age between the 33-year-old lawmaker and 67-year-old former governor: Those under 45 prefer Mamdani to Cuomo 52-18, while older voters pick Cuomo by a 30-point margin.
Forty-eight percent of Black voters backed Cuomo, and none of his rivals came close to winning a portion of that crucial demographic. Mamdani drew 11 percent of Black New Yorkers while Adrienne Adams, who would be the first Black woman elected mayor, received 12 percent.
Cuomo's support with Jewish voters is also durable, with 40 percent supporting him, the poll found. A super PAC allied with him has hammered Mamdani's anti-Israel stance in mailers and TV ads. Mamdani and Lander, who once considered becoming a rabbi, are virtually tied with Jewish Democrats, drawing 20 percent and 19 percent respectively.
The race is tightening most among early voters, with Mamdani trailing Cuomo by just 5 points.
Of those Marist polled, 70 percent were over the age of 45; 35 percent were white, 30 percent were Black, 24 percent were Latino and 7 percent were Asian. Sixty percent of respondents were women; 40 percent men.
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