A weakened Tehran lashes out performatively against US airbases to save face
An empty base as a target, with many hours warning, and a limited number of missiles fired at some of the best air defense systems in the world. Iran's retaliation for the US's weekend strikes on three of its nuclear facilities can only have been designed to deescalate.
The US-run Al Udeid airbase in Qatar had been evacuated days earlier, with satellite images showing the departure of planes and personnel widely publicised in the media. It is the most important US military airbase in the region, the home of Central Command. It even launched the drone that killed Iran's top military personality, General Qasem Soleimani, in 2020, Iranian state media said in the hours after 'Operation Glad Tidings of Victory.' The Monday strike against Al-Udeid had close to zero chance of American casualties – and provided the perfect moment of quasi-absurd face-saving for Iran.
The first hint of a possible strike came when the US Embassy in Doha, Qatar, issued an emergency 'shelter in place' order for US citizens. As if to remove any doubt, Qatar closed its airspace about an hour prior to the launch of what appears to have been close to a dozen missiles by Iran. Adding to the favourable conditions of the launch for Iran's dwindling arsenal, Qatar is close enough to permit the use of shorter-range missiles, stocks of which have not been as depleted as the medium-range missiles used to hit Israel over the past week.
To pour water on anything resembling a flame, Iran's National Security Council said moments after the attack the number of missiles fired had been 'as many as the number of bombs used in the attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.' Packaging the barrage as the definition of a proportionate response, the Iranian statement went on to insist the attack posed 'no dangerous aspect to our friendly and brotherly country of Qatar and its noble people.'
Tehran's method of retaliation-without-fangs has been successfully tried and tested. After Soleimani was killed, Iran's retaliatory missile attack against the US's Al Asad airbase in Iraq was reportedly telegraphed to Baghdad beforehand, possibly helping reduce the level of US injury suffered to mostly concussions. Iran's response to Israel's assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in July 2024 in the heart of Tehran heavily telegraphed in advance.
'We knew they'd retaliate. They had a similar response after Soleimani,' a senior White House official said Monday night.
A playbook appears to be forming. But it is one that compounds Iran's military weakness each time it is employed. In 2020, the Islamic Republic lost its pre-eminent military personality – an Iranian hardline hero. In 2024, it showed that valuable allies were not safe in central Tehran. This year, the regime has lost control of its own airspace to the point of previously unthinkable strikes on their prized nuclear facilities by both Israel and the US.
This is stark testament to the differing powers on display. Iran has to feign its strength in a managed presentation of restrained and muted anger. The US and Israel get to break taboos daily, shattering Iran's long-held position as a regional power in under ten days, and perhaps ending its ambitions to be a nuclear power.
There is now only one real red line left for the United States or Israel to cross, and that is to directly target Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But that may seem ill-advised, given the likelihood this octogenarian theocrat would be replaced by a younger hardliner who is keener to flex Iran's muscles of deterrence. Better to accept toothless retaliations amid Tehran's slow decline.
Each expression of Iran's anger has confirmed its slow erosion of power. An angry fledging nuclear power would have accelerated its race to an atomic bomb. That may still happen. But it looks more likely that Iran is desperately hoping its performative lashing out can sate what remains of its hardliners, decimated by Israeli strikes. It may even hope to shuffle back to diplomacy, with talks to contain a nuclear program and ballistic missile stockpile likely severely depleted to shadows of what they were merely ten days ago.
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Los Angeles Times
27 minutes ago
- Los Angeles Times
Threatened with deportation, these L.A. workers keep doing their jobs amid fear
Any day now, Noemi Gongora knows border patrol agents can snatch her up from the streets and send her back to El Salvador, a country she fled more than 30 years ago. But every morning, she steps out of the small bedroom she rents for $550 a month and goes to work for a street vendor selling cocteles de curiles — clam cocktails. The stand, one of dozens at the marketplace, sits along a busy road near the border of Koreatown and Pico Union, two densely populated neighborhoods with a large number of Korean and Central American immigrants, an area likely to be targeted by federal agents. Gongora, 64, knows this and that the $50 she makes a day is not worth the risk of deportation but there is still a life to be lived and bills to pay, and above all, she needs the money for the medication she uses to manage her cholesterol and diabetes. Medicine that is starting to run out. Everyday, thousands of street vendors set up shop on a piece of pavement in Los Angeles and beyond to make a living and create a path out of poverty or have their own bricks-and-mortar one day. These self-starters are American citizens, immigrants living in the country legally and illegally, and are part of a $504-million industry in L.A., according to estimates from the Economic Roundtable, a nonprofit public policy research organization. But the immigration raids that are taking place across the city, sparking protests, sporadic violence and the rare deployment of the National Guard and U.S. Marines have brought economic hardship, forcing vendors who are illegally in the country to choose between staying home safely or risking deportation to provide for themselves and their families. 'They're fearful of stepping out of their home,' said Gloria Medina of Strategic Concepts in Organizing and Policy Education, a grassroots organization based in South L.A. 'Some [families] have made a decision that one will stay at home and one will risk going to work because if one is risking going to work and gets caught up in a raid, at least there is one parent at home that children can come back to and those are really hard decisions folks have to make.' Medina said some families are afraid of falling into debt as they're unable to pay bills. There are also expenses like college tuition for their kids, medicine for chronic diseases and caring for their elderly parents. She said some parents send their U.S.-born children to pay the utility bills, which comes with its own risks. 'Yes, my teenage son or daughter can go and run these errands for the family so that we can, you know, keep the gas on and keep the lights on and the water running,' Medina said. 'But there's still a fear of making sure that they're not going to be mistakenly kidnapped or snatched up in a raid.' Some of those hardships extend to workers who go door-to-door to sell products for companies such as Avon and Mary Kay. Daniel Flaming of the Economic Roundtable said street vendors play a crucial role in the local economy, purchasing products from suppliers and selling them. 'I think the reality is that street vendors have been marginalized and it would be horrifying to be out there in the street with a cart when ICE guys are roaming around looking for folks to pick up,' he said. 'Their carts are an important equity to them and it seems like they're at risk of being handcuffed and having their carts become abandoned property.' In a statement to The Times, the office of Los Angeles Councilmember Eunisses Hernandez, whose district includes Koreatown and Pico-Union, said it has been working with immigrant rights organizations and day labor centers to host 'Know Your Rights' workshops, distribute flyers to businesses and deliver groceries to people who are afraid to leave home. Additionally, her office said it has been organizing other safety events to train people on how to deal with federal agents. Earlier this year, Sen. Maria Elena Durazo (D-Los Angeles) introduced Senate Bill 635 that aims to prevent immigration enforcement agents from accessing street vendor data collected by local governments, prohibiting sidewalk vending programs from inquiring the immigration status of vendors and prohibiting code enforcement officers from assisting federal agents. 'Street vendors are pivotal to California's culture and economy, and nationally they have been huge contributors to their communities,' she said in a written statement. 'Now more than ever, California must come together to uplift and empower microbusinesses across the State.' The bill was also co-sponsored by several groups including Inclusive Action for the City, the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights of Los Angeles, Community Power Collective and the Public Counsel among others. Since then, individuals and groups have stepped up efforts to assist vendors. Among them is K-Town for All, a volunteer-led grassroots organization that serves Koreatown's homeless community. In recent weeks, the group has raised tens of thousands of dollars to help vendors with their wages, bills and other expenses and has helped 80 families so far, according to the group's Instagram account. 'We'll buy out our immigrant vendors so they can afford to stay safe at home and provide our unhoused neighbors with fresh, filling delicious food,' a June 11 post read. 'No one should have to risk getting kidnapped just to provide for their families.' Though the immigration raids have taken a toll on families, they have also shown how people come together to protect the most vulnerable, said Medina, the executive director of SCOPE. 'As we're seeing so much ugliness and hate and how its been manifesting in our communities, at the same time we're seeing unity, joy and mutual aid,' she said. 'It's a beautiful thing that we need to elevate.' In Canoga Park, some 25 miles from Koreatown, Jackie Sandoval, 25, loaded pans and utensils into a van at the end of a workday. Sandoval sells empanadas, costilla de puerco — pork ribs — and other dishes at her sidewalk stand. She said the usual vendors that line up next to her on the block are staying home because of the immigration raids. 'They aren't selling because they are scared,' she said. Lyzzeth Mendoza, a senior organizer with Community Power Collective, which advocates for vendors, said nearly all of the 500 vendors that her group works with are undocumented or are in the process of seeking to become U.S. citizens. Since the immigration sweeps, about half of the vendors are going out, she said. In some neighborhoods, even the American citizens are staying home, hurting vendors' business. 'There's definitely a chill effect,' Mendoza said. Maritza Hernandez, 47, has worked as a vendor for two decades and sells crepes from a stand in the San Fernando Valley. She said the raids have made her feel angry and powerless. 'We're easy targets,' she wrote in an email. A Mexican national, Hernandez said she has to help pay the medical bills of mother and stepfather, who are also street vendors. But working in the U.S., she has helped put her children on a path out of poverty. She said one son graduated from Brown — an Ivy League university — and is pursuing a nursing career; the other son is studying at Los Angeles Trade-Technical College to become a chef. 'We don't want to be a burden on the country,' she wrote. 'We're contributing, paying our taxes, being good citizens, educating ourselves and our children so that tomorrow they can return and contribute to their communities.' Even before the raids, some vendors faced pushback in the neighborhoods where they operated, with business owners and residents saying they were unlicensed and dumping grease into the sewer system and leaving food on the sidewalk. Los Angeles City Councilmember Imelda Padilla, who represents Van Nuys, Panorama City, Lake Balboa and other neighborhoods in the Valley, said that her office has seen a decrease in the number of vendors in the district since the raids. 'They face tough decisions, balancing the fear of increased ICE activity with the urgent need to support their loved ones,' she said. But not all vendors fear deportation. In MacArthur Park, Manuel Guarchaj, 52, sat next to a white van last week selling produce to residents of a nearby apartment complex. The immigration raids, he said, have scared away customers. 'I used to get 80 to 100 people a day,' he said. 'Now, maybe 40. People are afraid.' He said he's not afraid if immigration agents catch him and deport him back to Guatemala, mostly because his children are all grown up and have their own families. 'I came to this country by the grace of God,' he said. 'And it will be by that same grace that I'll return home.' Back at the marketplace sitting by the edge of Koreatown and Pico-Union, Gongora rushed to tend to a customer. The sun was melting the ice keeping his bags of sour cream cool, and the fruit was becoming discolored with flies beginning to circle. Few customers were at the marketplace. Among them was Brie Monroy, 45, who traveled more than an hour from San Bernardino with her mom, niece and nephew to visit and support the vendors. 'I wasn't sure if they were going to be here,' she said. But Monroy had not stopped by Gongora's stand, who worried that if no customers came by, she may be out of a job with no family to help her. Six years ago, her husband died of kidney disease, just five months after burying her brother-in-law. 'Everything fell apart after that,' she said. 'I was sad and cried a lot; I got sick and lost the house the three of us once shared.' Alone with no family, she began working for street vendors to survive. Now the raids are putting that lifeline at risk along with her health. She's down to a couple weeks worth of pills to manage her diabetes and cholesterol and is reluctant to go out and get more. 'I haven't gone because of the immigration raids,' she said. Short in stature and wearing a blue apron, Gongora let out a big sigh and cried, using her fingers to wipe her tears. 'It's been so difficult,' she said. A few feet from her, the woman she works with asked her to double-check an order with a customer. As quickly as the tears had come, they stopped. Gongora excused herself and power walked past several vendors until she reached the customer to complete the sale.
Hamilton Spectator
29 minutes ago
- Hamilton Spectator
Trump claims ceasefire between Iran and Israel after Iran's missile attack on US base in Qatar
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump said that Israel and Iran had agreed to a 'complete and total ceasefire' soon after Iran launched a limited missile attack Monday on a U.S. military base in Qatar, retaliating for the American bombing of its nuclear sites. Iran said that as long as Israel stopped its attacks early Tuesday morning, it would halt theirs. Israel did not immediately acknowledge any ceasefire, but there were no reports of Israeli strikes in Iran after 4 a.m. local. Heavy Israeli strikes continued in Tehran and other cities until shortly before that time. 'As of now, there is NO 'agreement' on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations,' Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in a post on X. 'However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.' His message was posted at 4:16 a.m. Tehran time. Araghchi added: 'The final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later.' Trump posted on Truth Social that the 24-hour phased-in ceasefire will begin about midnight Tuesday Eastern time. He said it would bring an 'Official END' to the war. The Israeli military declined to comment on Trump's statement and the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not immediately respond to a message seeking comment. Speaking on Iranian state television, an overnight anchor repeatedly referred to a 'Trump-claimed' ceasefire, without saying whether Tehran accepted it. The anchor noted: 'Simultaneously with Trump's claim of a ceasefire, the Zionist enemy targeted several points in the cities of Tehran, Urmia and Rasht, including a residential area in the capital.' Israel's military put out a warning earlier that District 6 in Tehran could be struck. Early Tuesday, Iran, mirroring the language and maps of the Israeli military, put out a warning telling people in Ramat Gan it would target 'military infrastructure' there. Iran's attack Monday indicated it was prepared to step back from escalating tensions in the volatile region. The U.S. was warned by Iran in advance, and there were no casualties, said Trump, who dismissed the attack as a 'very weak response.' Qatar condemned the attack on Al Udeid Air Base as 'a flagrant violation' of its sovereignty, airspace and international law. Qatar said it intercepted all but one missile, though it was not clear if that missile caused any damage. Iran said the volley matched the number of bombs dropped by the United States on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. Iran also said it targeted the base because it was outside of populated areas. Those comments, made immediately after the attack, suggested Iran wanted to de-escalate with the United States, something Trump himself said after the strikes early Sunday on Iran. Qatar Maj. Gen. Shayeq Al Hajri said 19 missiles were fired at the base that is home to the Combined Air Operations Center, which provides command and control of air power across the region, as well as the 379th Air Expeditionary Wing, the largest such wing in the world. Trump said 14 missiles were fired, 13 were knocked down and one was 'set free' because it posed no threat. Iran announced the attack on state television, with a caption calling it 'a mighty and successful response' to 'America's aggression.' Just before the explosions, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on the social platform X: 'We neither initiated the war nor seeking it. But we will not leave invasion to the great Iran without answer.' Earlier reports that a missile was launched at a base housing American forces in Iraq were a false alarm, a senior U.S. military official said. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly, said debris from a malfunctioning Iranian missile targeting Israel had triggered an alert of an impending attack on the Ain al-Assad base. Israel expands war to include symbolic targets On the 11th day of the conflict, Israel and Iran traded airstrikes that have become a reality for civilians in both countries since Israel started the war to target Tehran's rapidly advancing nuclear program. Iran struck Israel with a barrage of missiles and drones while Israel said it attacked 'regime targets and government repression bodies in the heart of Tehran.' But Israeli officials insisted they did not seek the overthrow of Iran's government, their archenemy since the country's 1979 Islamic Revolution. The latest strikes unfolded only hours after Trump himself mentioned the possibility of regime change a day after inserting America into the war with its stealth-bomber strike on three Iranian nuclear sites. 'If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a Regime change???' he asked on his Truth Social website. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt later described Trump as 'simply raising a question.' The U.S. strikes over the weekend prompted fears of a wider regional conflict. Iran said the U.S. had crossed 'a very big red line' with its risky gambit to strike with missiles and 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs . Israel aims to wind down the war in the coming days, but that will depend on the Iranians, an Israeli official said on condition of anonymity to discuss high-level internal deliberations. The official spoke before Trump's announcement about a ceasefire. Israel's preferred outcome is for Iran to agree to a ceasefire and reenter negotiations with the U.S. over its nuclear program, the official said. But Israel is prepared for the possibility of an extended low-intensity war of attrition or period of 'quiet for quiet,' in which it would closely monitor Iran's activities and strike if it identifies new threats. Tehran strikes open new chapter of war Before the ceasefire announcement, the Israeli military warned Iranians it would continue to attack military sites around Tehran as its focus shifted to include symbolic targets. The military issued the warning on the social platform X, though Iranians are struggling to access the outside world due to an internet shutdown. In Tehran, Israel hit the headquarters of the military force that suppressed recent protests and blew open a gate at Evin prison. That facility is known for holding political activists. Iranian state television shared black-and-white surveillance footage of the strike at the facility known for holding dual nationals and Westerners often used by Iran as bargaining chips in negotiations with the West. Evin also has specialized units for political prisoners run by the paramilitary, all-volunteer Revolutionary Guard, which answers only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The facility is the target of both U.S. and European Union sanctions. There were no immediate reports of casualties in Iran or significant damage. Iranian state television aired footage it said was shot inside Evin, with prisoners under control. However, the Washington-based Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran said many families of detainees 'have expressed deep concern about the safety and condition of their loved ones' in the prison. According to an Israeli official familiar with the government's strategy, Israel is targeting these sites to put pressure on the Iranian administration but is not actively seeking to topple it. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal government deliberations. The Israeli military also confirmed it struck roads around Iran's Fordo enrichment facility to obstruct access to the site. The underground site was one of those hit in Sunday's attack by the United States. The Israeli military did not elaborate. In Vienna, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog said he expected there to be heavy damage at the Fordo facility following Sunday's U.S. airstrike there with sophisticated bunker-buster bombs. Several Iranian officials, including Atomic Energy Organization of Iran spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi, have claimed Iran removed nuclear material from targeted sites ahead of time. Iran presses on attacking Israel Iran said its Monday attacks targeted the Israeli cities of Haifa and Tel Aviv, according to Iranian state television. Explosions were also heard in Jerusalem, possibly from air defense systems in action, and Israel's Magen David Adom emergency rescue service said there had been no reports of injuries. In Israel, at least 24 people have been killed and more than 1,000 wounded in the war. Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 974 people and wounded 3,458 others, according to the Washington-based group Human Rights Activists. The group, which has provided detailed casualty figures from Iranian unrest such as the protests surrounding the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, said of those killed, it identified 387 civilians and 268 security force personnel. The U.S. has evacuated some 250 American citizens and their immediate family members from Israel by government, military and charter flights that began over the weekend, a State Department official said. There are roughly 700,000 American citizens, most of them dual U.S.-Israeli citizens, believed to be in Israel. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who leads one of Iran's closest allies, said Monday after meeting in Moscow with the Iranian foreign minister that they had explored 'how we can get out of today's situation.' Putin called the Israeli and American attacks on Iran an 'absolutely unprovoked aggression.' ___ Lidman reported from Tel Aviv, Israel. Associated Press writers Josef Federman in Jerusalem, Qassim Abdul-Zahra in Baghdad, Abby Sewell in Beirut, Elise Morton in London, Geir Moulson in Berlin, Ella Joyner in Brussels, Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations and Stephanie Liechtenstein in Vienna contributed to this report. Error! 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CNBC
30 minutes ago
- CNBC
CNBC Daily Open: The strange times of missiles-led 'peace'
It's a strange thought that launching attacks on other countries could lead to peace, but that seems to be the logic behind the abrupt escalation in conflict in the Middle East beginning Saturday. And now there's talk of a ceasefire soon. Here's a quick recap. On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump authorized air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, pushing America into Israel's war with Tehran. On Sunday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran "reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people." On Monday, Iran launched a retaliatory strike against America, targeting a U.S. military base in Qatar. And on Monday evening stateside, Trump announced a ceasefire. Trump said on Truth Social that Israel and Iran had agreed to a "Complete and Total CEASEFIRE" that will, in effect mark "an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR" — which began when Israel attacked Iran on June 12. There are signs this isn't the usual empty rhetoric. Iran gave the U.S. "early notice" of its attack on the military base in Qatar, according to Trump. It was a "retaliation that was expected," Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said. Qatar also received advanced warning from Iran, according to The New York Times, which cited three Iranian officials familiar with the matter. Iran's national security council said its missile strike "posed no threat whatsoever to our friendly and brotherly nation, Qatar, or its honorable people." This, essentially, is "the peace through strength strategy," Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC. In other words, there's a small chance tensions in the Middle East might cool down following a carefully calibrated and symbolic exchange of strikes that projects strength from all parties, while also providing Iran an off-ramp to de-escalate tension. Judging by the U.S. stock and oil markets — which rose and fell, respectively — investors are indeed hopeful the strategy of missile-led peace would work. Trump announces an Israel-Iran ceasefireU.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that Israel and Iran had agreed to a "Complete and Total CEASEFIRE" that will begin around midnight Tuesday stateside. However, neither Iran nor Israel has publicly confirmed they have accepted Trump's ceasefire timeline. Read CNBC's live coverage of the latest developments on the Israel-Iran war here. Iran strikes U.S. military base in QatarIran on Monday launched what its armed forces called a "powerful and destructive missile strike on the United States' Al-Udeid military base in Qatar." The Al-Udeid Air Base is the largest American military installation in the Middle East, with around 10,000 service members. Qatar's Defense Ministry said its air defense had intercepted the missile attack on Al-Udeid, and that there were no reported deaths or injuries. Prices of oil post a huge dropOil prices fell sharply Monday after Iran's strike on Qatar had no reported casualties. U.S. crude oil fell 7.22%, to close at $68.51 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent shed 7.18% to $71.48 during U.S. trading. Trump on Monday demanded that "everyone" keep oil prices down or they would play "into the hands of the enemy." Trump didn't specify who he was referring to, but he seemed to be addressing U.S. oil producers. Markets in U.S. rise on de-escalation hopesU.S. stocks rose Monday as investors seemed hopeful of de-escalation in the Israel-Iran war. The S&P 500 climbed 0.96%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.89% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.94%. Tesla shares popped 8.2% after the company launched its robotaxis in Austin, Texas, on Sunday— but regulators are looking into reports of robotaxis driving erratically. Europe's Stoxx 600 index fell 0.28%. [PRO] Wall Street's thoughts on robotaxisWall Street closely watched Tesla's robotaxi launch in Texas over the weekend. Analyst outlooks on the event vary widely. While Wedbush's Dan Ives, who rode in the robotaxis over the weekend, said it "exceeded our expectations," Guggenheim's Ronald Jewsikow called the event "baby steps." Here's what analysts think about what the robotaxis mean for Tesla's stock. Airlines divert, cancel more Middle East flights after Iran attacks U.S. military base Airlines diverted more Middle East flights on Monday after Iran's armed forces said the country launched a missile strike on a U.S. military base in Qatar, as the region's military conflict continued to disrupt airlines' operations. Dubai-based Emirates said that some of its aircraft rerouted on Monday and told customers that delays or longer flights were possible as it would take "flight paths well distanced from conflict areas," while operating its schedule as planned. Air India said it had halted all flights in and out of the region and to and from the east coast of North America and Europe "until further notice." Earlier, major international airlines including Air France, Iberia, Finnair and others announced they would pause or further postpone a resumption of service to some destinations in the Middle East.
