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CNBC
a day ago
- Politics
- CNBC
With Trump pressure and a 'new Lebanon,' can Hezbollah's shadow economy be dismantled?
Up until a few months ago, the drive from Beirut's international airport through the Lebanese capital city's southern suburbs used to feature a stream of pro-Iranian and Hezbollah-themed propaganda. Hassan Nasrallah, the charismatic former leader of the Iran-backed group who was killed in Beirut last year, stared down at you from billboards while you drove along Imam Khomeini Road, named after the late founder of Iran's Islamic Republic. Images of Hezbollah leaders were interspersed with dramatic murals of fallen Iranian spy commander Qasem Soleimani. Now many of those images have been replaced with western and local brands. In June dozens of those billboards along the highway instead featured Formula One racecar driver Lewis Hamilton advertising shaving products. Many of the new posters also feature patriotic, unifying messages that replaced the formerly sectarian signage — an attempt by Lebanon's new Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to encourage "A New Era for Lebanon," just in time for the summer tourism boom the Mediterranean country is hoping for after months of war. In this "new" Lebanon, Hezbollah is being forced to operate in the shadows — more than ever in the group's over 40-year history. The Iranian proxy, which controls several parts of Lebanon as a sub-state group and is designated a terrorist organization by Washington, has always looked for creative ways to evade U.S. sanctions. But since Israel's aggressive assault – its most deadly since the 2006 war – Hezbollah's leadership and financial infrastructure have been left in tatters. "Hezbollah finds itself in its greatest predicament since its foundation. The Israeli war against Lebanon greatly hit the party and its infrastructures, assassinating the party's senior military and political leaders including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah," Joseph Daher, author of "Hezbollah: The Political Economy of Lebanon's Party of God," told CNBC. "The regions majorly inhabited by the Shia population have been greatly targeted, destroying extensively civilian housing and infrastructures as well," he said. The group, whose political wing also holds seats in parliament, still wields significant political power in Lebanon, which last held parliamentary elections in 2022. Despite losing the most significant number of seats in the group's political history, it still held tight to a 62-seat coalition in the 128-member parliament. While Hezbollah "will not disappear because it has a strong, disciplined and organized political and militant structure, and benefits from the continued assistance of Iran," the group "has become increasingly politically and socially isolated outside Lebanon's Shia population," Daher said. While Hezbollah receives much of its funding from Iran, it has also developed extensive international financial networks to bring in revenue. The group makes money from traditional industries like banking and construction, but it also runs smuggling, money laundering and international drug trafficking operations around the Middle East and as far afield as Bulgaria and Argentina. Its revenues are estimated in the billions of dollars annually. Hezbollah's parallel governance strategy, operating as both a political party and sub-state group, has enabled it to survive and grow as an armed group for decades. When Lebanese depositors were locked out of their savings in 2019 after a financial meltdown crippled the country and its currency, Hezbollah remained able to fund its base and illicit activities. It operated cash-only businesses and ran black market U.S. dollar exchanges. This strategy will continue despite pressure on their finances, regional analysts saydue to the extreme difficulty of tracking informal, cash-only transactions. Lebanon's economy "operates more than 60% on cash exchanges, the circulation of which the state cannot trace," Daher said. "It is thanks to the segment of this cash in circulation that Hezbollah smuggles into Lebanon that it finances its activities and pays its employees and helps its popular base, alongside other sources of funding, both licit and illicit." However, the U.S. under President Donald Trump's administration is placing renewed pressure on Lebanon's new government to crack down on Hezbollah's illicit activities. In an apparent blow to Hezbollah's funding operations, Lebanon's central bank, the Banque Du Liban (BDL), issued a directive banning all financial institutions in the country from any dealings with Al-Qard al-Hasan — a Hezbollah-linked financial entity that provides local loans by taking gold and jewelry as collateral. It's a tool by which Hezbollah cements support from the country's Shiite population and gets more funding for its operations. Israel has specifically targeted Al-Qard al-Hasan facilities with airstrikes in the last year. The BDL move was "ingenious," said Matthew Levitt, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute and director of its counterterrorism and intelligence program, because Al-Qard al-Hasan has long been registered as a charity and thus was able to operate outside the Lebanese financial system, evading regulatory oversight. "Here, the BDL appears to have found a way to jump the gap and say, 'whatever you are, people can't provide services for you. You can't bank, and anybody who does is violating the law," Levitt said. Until recently, Hezbollah controlled almost all ports of entry in Lebanon, including the Beirut airport. Following Israel's assault on the group, its airport is now under the control of the Lebanese government, which has fired staff linked to Hezbollah, detained smugglers, and implemented new surveillance technology. And while Tehran is still funding its proxy group, its transport routes to Lebanon are dramatically restricted after losing a key ally with the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria. Flights coming in from Iran and other locations meant to bring in material support for Hezbollah are being heavily inspected, experts told CNBC. "Cash transfers from abroad have been intercepted at the airport and border. We are talking about millions of dollars," Daher said of the renewed security in the country. Many who want to see Hezbollah's power dismantled say the time is now. "When you now have Iran under tremendous stress, and Lebanon overtly trying to crack down on Hezbollah's ability to function as an independent militia – and trying to target the funding it needs to be able to do that – you have an interesting opportunity," Levitt, who also served as deputy assistant secretary for intelligence and analysis at the U.S. Treasury Department, told CNBC in an interview. For the first time in decades, both the prime minister and president of Lebanon are interested in asserting monopoly over the use of force in the country, he added. "They're interested in securing the much, much needed international aid that Lebanon needs to get out of the economic crisis, and they're interested in not saying no to the Trump administration." But it's not that easy. The group, long described as the most powerful non-state organization in the Middle East, is still loyally followed by hundreds of thousands of people who rely on it for social services and ideological leadership — and it remains well-armed. Notably, no one is officially demanding Hezbollah disband or cease to exist entirely. Trump's envoy to the region Tom Barrack recently demanded Hezbollah lay down its weapons, a proposition the group has rejected. "Hezbollah's not going to disarm because you ask them nicely," Levitt said. "But we have to enable the government of Lebanon to do this, give them the capability to do it, and have their back when they do it." That requires a combination of carrots and sticks, former U.S. officials say – ironically, tools that have in many cases been weakened by the shrinking of U.S. government resources under the Trump administration. Alexander Zerden, principal at Washington-based risk advisory firm Capitol Peak Strategies who formerly served at the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, outlined some of those potential approaches. "On the offensive side, the U.S. can and will likely continue to target Hezbollah financial networks inside and outside of Lebanon. The U.S. will seek to deny Hezbollah access to Syria, including lucrative reconstruction contracts," Zerden said. "On the incentive side, direct tools are more limited with reductions in diplomacy and development capabilities," he noted – one example of that being the gutting of USAID, which served as a powerful diplomatic vehicle. "However," he added, "there appears to be space for the U.S. to support economic reforms." For Ronnie Chatah, a Lebanese political analyst and host of The Beirut Banyan podcast, what's truly needed is international pressure that would push Iran to relinquish its involvement in Lebanon. "What has not yet shifted in Lebanon's favor is the international aspect, meaning finding a way for Iran to abandon Lebanon that I think can only happen by strategic diplomacy," said Chatah, whose father, a former Lebanese finance minister, was killed in a suspected Hezbollah assassination plot. "If the Trump administration wants peace the way it says repeatedly, if Donald Trump wants the Nobel Peace Prize too, there has to be some way forward for Lebanon to take the spotlight and to find a peaceful resolution that in some ways satisfies Iran's terms," he told CNBC from Beirut. What's been done so far by both the U.S. and Lebanese governments is important, but will not ultimately break Hezbollah's power in the country, Chatah warned. "The window of opportunity is now. It's not tomorrow, and unfortunately, it's a closing window," he said. "The intent is not enough. Whether it's by the Trump administration or even whether it's by the Lebanese president, the intention is not enough."
Mail & Guardian
11-07-2025
- Politics
- Mail & Guardian
Qatar must rethink the US's Al Udeid Military Air Base
US involvement in the Middle East and Israel's attacks on Iran and its retaliation make the US military base in Qatar a target The assassination of one of Iran's highest-ranking generals and commander of Al Quds Force, part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Qasem Soleimani, opened an unprecedented form of conflict in the Gulf region. Soleimani was killed in Iraq on 3 January 2020 by an US drone strike while travelling to meet Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi. Iran retaliated by targeting US military facilities in Iraq. Days after the assassination, it fired more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two Iraqi air bases housing US forces. According to The Times of Israel, Israel aided the US in that operation. The leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed by Israel in the Iranian capital Tehran after attending the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian, another violation of the sovereignty of Iran and international law. The killing of Haniyeh in July 2024 came on the heels of the killing of a number of Iranian diplomats at Iran's embassy in Damascus, Syria, on 1 April 2024. Israel — with the support of the US — has continued to assassinate Iranian officials inside Iran at will. Qatar had joint military operations with the US during the Operation Desert Storm in Iraq in 1991. After the operations, Qatar and the US signed a defence cooperation agreement. This was expanded in 1996 to include the building of Al Udeid Military Air Base at a cost of more than $1 billion. It is the largest US military base in the Middle East. Iran attacked Al Udeid in retaliation for the US's attacks on the Iranian nuclear sites in Fordo, Natanz and Esfahan in June 2025. Although the strikes were downplayed by the US and Qatar — indeed they seemed to have been choreographed — they exposed a new fault line in future US-Qatar military cooperation. The question on the minds of many Qataris is: 'What will happen next time the US decides to attack Iran — will Iran retaliate by attacking Qatar again?' Notwithstanding the repeated mantra of 'a friendly, brotherly love and appreciation' between Qatar and Iran, the biggest threat to Qatar's security and political stability now, and in the near future, is a possible Israeli-US war against Iran. The targeting of Iran by Israel and the US presents a new security threat in the region. Al Udeid has served as 'a symbol of protection for the State of Qatar against potential attacks and other forms of hostilities'. However, when put to the test, Al Udeid has failed to meet those expectations. Besides Iran's recent attacks on US military installations in Al Udeid, when Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Egypt led a blockade against Qatar in 2017, there was no forewarning from the US, Al Udeid's touted superior military intelligence notwithstanding. According to Qatar's defence minister Khalid al Attiyah, 'Actually, it was not a mere intention. There was a plan to invade Qatar.' The 'plan was set into two phases, imposing the siege with the aim of creating an overall state of panic, which would have a direct impact on the Qatari street, then executing a military invasion'. Possible future conflicts involving the US and Iran have raised serious concerns about the safety of the US's assets and personnel in the region. It has also triggered a debate, particularly in the US media, about the viability of, and rationale for, the country's continued involvement in Israel's wars in the region. (Graphic: John McCann/M&G) Leading supporters of President Donald Trump's Make America Great Again movement, such as executive chairperson of Breitbart News Steve Bannon, and right-wing journalist and social media influencer Tucker Carlson, have questioned 'the US's continuing blind support of Israel's wars in the Middle East'. Carlson, a known Trump supporter and right-wing voice, has been the loudest. He has been 'urging the US to stay out of Israel's war with Iran'. Bannon and Carlson are part of a broader effort to overturn the 'GOP's [Grand Old Party] hawkish consensus on Israel'. Despite Trump's unwavering support of Israel, the US president has been critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's warmongering strategy in the region. Trump has entered into lucrative business relationships with countries in the Persian Gulf region recently and Netanyahu stands to disturb those relationships. The US and the UAE have agreed to turn Abu Dhabi 'to a site of the largest artificial intelligence campus outside the US'. The US will allow 'the UAE to import half a million Nvidia semiconductor chips, considered the most advanced in the world in artificial intelligence products'. According to The Guardian, Saudi Arabia has struck a similar deal for semiconductors, obtaining the promise of the sale of hundreds of thousands of Nvidia Blackwell chips to Humain, an AI start-up owned by a Saudi sovereign wealth fund. Indeed, given these interests and the strengthening relationship between the US and the Gulf countries, the US has much more to lose if it continues to blindly support Israel's wars. The relationship between Iran and the state of Qatar is very strong — they share gas exploration sites in the South Pars-North Dome area. Located in the Persian Gulf, they are by far the world's largest natural gas fields. There is also a people-to-people relationship between Qatar and Iran dating back to time immemorial. The next attack on Iran by the US or Israel could escalate and spread the war to Qatar. The US managed to move its assets from Al Udeid to other locations in Qatar before Iran's attacks last month. What guarantees does Qatar have that Iran won't go after those locations in future? There is a possibility that, if attacked, Iran will once again retaliate. What will happen then? Retaliatory attacks could go beyond a mere violation of Qatar's airspace and sovereignty — they could cost Qatari lives. The State of Qatar has to take serious decisions regarding Al Udeid if it wants to maintain its future relationship with Iran and other countries in the region. It must close Al Udeid. It has more valid reasons to do that now that the threat in the region has morphed. Consequently, Qatar needs to consider new defence infrastructure. Al Udeid presents more political and diplomatic challenges than opportunities. Thembisa Fakude is a senior research fellow at Africa Asia Dialogues and a director at the Mail & Guardian.
Memri
07-07-2025
- Politics
- Memri
Tehran Friday Sermon By Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami: According To Shari'a Law, Trump And Netanyahu Must Be Executed; They Are Guilty Of Murder, Oppression, And Sowing Corruption
Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, a member of the Iranian regime's Guardian Council, said in a Friday, July 4, 2025 sermon in Tehran that according to Islamic law, U.S. President Donal Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should be executed. He said that they are guilty of murdering tens of thousands in Gaza and of murdering IRGC Qods Force Commander Qasem Soleimani, that they are guilty of oppression, and that they are guilty of sowing corruption in the land and fighting God and His messenger. The audience chanted: 'Allah Akbar! Khamenei is the leader! Death to those who oppose the Rule of the Jurisprudent! Death to America! Death to England! Death to the hypocrites and the infidels! Death to Israel!' Khatami's address was aired on Channel 1 (Iran). Ahmad Khatami: "The ruling regarding Trump and Netanyahu, according to the shari'a, is that the pair of them should be executed." Crowd: "Allah Akbar! Allah Akbar! Allah Akbar! Khamenei is the leader! Death to those who oppose the Rule of the Jurisprudent! Death to America! Death to England! Death to the hypocrites and the infidels! Death to Israel!" Khatami: "They deserve the death penalty according to three articles of the shari'a: First, they have murdered. 55,000 people have been killed in Gaza, and you killed our martyr hajj Qasem Soleimani. [...] "You are murderers, and you need to be punished. Second, you are oppressors. [...] "And third, you are sowing corruption upon the land, and you are fighting God and His Messenger."
Gulf Insider
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Gulf Insider
Iran Strikes US Base in Qatar
Iran retaliated against US airstrikes on its nuclear facilities by targeting Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar — the largest American military installation in the Middle East. The attack, confirmed by both Iranian state media and US officials, marks a significant escalation in the region's already volatile conflict. While no casualties were reported, the symbolism of the strike was unmistakable: Iran chose to hit the heart of US military operations in the Gulf. This combination of handout satellite photos obtained from Planet Labs PBC on June 19, 2025, of a photo taken on June 5, 2025 (left) shows military planes at Al Udeid , and a photo taken June 19, 2025 showing no more planes. US President Donald Trump shrugged off the response as 'very weak' and saying it was now time to make peace. The New York Times , citing Iranian officials, reported that the response had been designed to allow 'all sides an exit ramp', drawing a parallel to a similar Iranian attack on a US base in Iraq following Washington's assassination of top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in 2020. With international concern mounting that Israel's campaign in Iran could lead to a regional spillover – concern that only intensified after the US strikes – French President Emmanuel Macron said after the Iranian retaliation that 'the spiral of chaos must end'. The incident follows a wave of heightened tensions between Iran and the United States, with both countries trading threats and taking unprecedented military action. With nearly 40,000 US troops spread across the region, and Al Udeid serving as the nerve centre for American air operations, the confrontation could have far-reaching consequences for regional stability and global security. Al Udeid, located roughly 30km southwest of Doha, Qatar, is the largest US military base in the Middle East. Built in 1996 and heavily expanded with over $8 billion in Qatari investment, it serves as the forward headquarters for the US Central Command (Centcom), overseeing military operations from Egypt to Central Asia. It also hosts forces from the UK, Qatar, and other allies. The base has been pivotal in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the 2021 Kabul evacuation. Its long runways and advanced infrastructure enable rapid deployment, making it a cornerstone of US force projection in the region Iran struck Al Udeid as a direct response to US airstrikes on its nuclear facilities. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) framed the attack as a message: 'US bases in the region are not strengths but vulnerabilities.' By hitting the most prominent US base in the Gulf, Tehran sought to challenge Washington's dominance and retaliate symbolically without provoking immediate mass casualties. Qatar confirmed the strike but said the base had been evacuated and no one was hurt. Whether missiles actually hit their targets or caused damage remains unclear. No. Al Udeid was not used in the US operation. In fact, the US deliberately diverted attention by publicizing the movement of B-2 bombers toward Guam. In reality, seven B-2 stealth bombers took off directly from Missouri and struck nuclear sites in Iran from transatlantic routes — avoiding the use of Middle East bases altogether. This tactical move reduced the risk of immediate retaliatory strikes on US facilities in the region, including Al Udeid. Yes. Well before the Iranian retaliation, satellite images revealed that most aircraft at Al Udeid had been dispersed — a clear sign the base was bracing for a possible attack. By June 19, nearly all visible aircraft had been moved or sheltered, a common 'force protection' tactic used to limit damage in case of missile strikes. Similarly, US Navy ships were moved from the 5th Fleet's base in Bahrain, reinforcing the idea that Washington expected Tehran to retaliate and took steps to minimise exposure. The US and UK warned their citizens in Qatar to shelter in place hours before the attack, citing 'an abundance of caution.' Qatar also temporarily closed its airspace. Though these steps didn't explicitly mention a looming strike, they pointed to growing intelligence of Iranian preparations. Flight tracking data showed aircraft diverting from Hamad International Airport, one of the busiest in the world. Around 100 incoming flights were redirected shortly before the missiles were detected. Bahrain and Kuwait also closed their airspace as tensions spiked. While Iran's strike appears calibrated — symbolic but limited in damage — it underscores how quickly the situation can spiral. Both sides have said they do not seek full-scale war, but each action brings new risks. The US has warned Iran against further retaliation, while Tehran has signaled it will respond to any further violations of its sovereignty. Early on Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that there was no ceasefire agreement with Israel as of now, but if it stopped its attacks then Tehran would also stop firing. 'As of now, there is NO 'agreement' on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations,' Araghchi posted on social media, shortly after the US president announced a deal would begin around 0400 GMT. Araghchi added that if 'the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.' Footage circulating on social media shows the moment an Iranian ballistic missile impacted in southern Israel, causing the deaths of three and wounding at least eight more. — The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) June 24, 2025 After his comments, Israeli emergency services said three people were killed and two wounded in an Iranian missile strike in southern Israel. 'Following the missile impact site in southern Israel: So far, MDA teams have pronounced the deaths of three people – Two people with moderate injuries have been evacuated to hospital, and approximately six people with mild injuries are being treated at the scene,' Magen David Adom said in a statement on X. Whether diplomacy can now intervene, or whether the conflict will expand to other parts of the Gulf, remains uncertain. But one thing is clear: With Al Udeid now in the crosshairs, the stakes for the region have never been read: Israel Says Iran Violates Ceasefire, Orders Strikes on Tehran
Yahoo
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
A weakened Tehran lashes out performatively against US airbases to save face
An empty base as a target, with many hours warning, and a limited number of missiles fired at some of the best air defense systems in the world. Iran's retaliation for the US's weekend strikes on three of its nuclear facilities can only have been designed to deescalate. The US-run Al Udeid airbase in Qatar had been evacuated days earlier, with satellite images showing the departure of planes and personnel widely publicised in the media. It is the most important US military airbase in the region, the home of Central Command. It even launched the drone that killed Iran's top military personality, General Qasem Soleimani, in 2020, Iranian state media said in the hours after 'Operation Glad Tidings of Victory.' The Monday strike against Al-Udeid had close to zero chance of American casualties – and provided the perfect moment of quasi-absurd face-saving for Iran. The first hint of a possible strike came when the US Embassy in Doha, Qatar, issued an emergency 'shelter in place' order for US citizens. As if to remove any doubt, Qatar closed its airspace about an hour prior to the launch of what appears to have been close to a dozen missiles by Iran. Adding to the favourable conditions of the launch for Iran's dwindling arsenal, Qatar is close enough to permit the use of shorter-range missiles, stocks of which have not been as depleted as the medium-range missiles used to hit Israel over the past week. To pour water on anything resembling a flame, Iran's National Security Council said moments after the attack the number of missiles fired had been 'as many as the number of bombs used in the attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.' Packaging the barrage as the definition of a proportionate response, the Iranian statement went on to insist the attack posed 'no dangerous aspect to our friendly and brotherly country of Qatar and its noble people.' Tehran's method of retaliation-without-fangs has been successfully tried and tested. After Soleimani was killed, Iran's retaliatory missile attack against the US's Al Asad airbase in Iraq was reportedly telegraphed to Baghdad beforehand, possibly helping reduce the level of US injury suffered to mostly concussions. Iran's response to Israel's assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in July 2024 in the heart of Tehran heavily telegraphed in advance. 'We knew they'd retaliate. They had a similar response after Soleimani,' a senior White House official said Monday night. A playbook appears to be forming. But it is one that compounds Iran's military weakness each time it is employed. In 2020, the Islamic Republic lost its pre-eminent military personality – an Iranian hardline hero. In 2024, it showed that valuable allies were not safe in central Tehran. This year, the regime has lost control of its own airspace to the point of previously unthinkable strikes on their prized nuclear facilities by both Israel and the US. This is stark testament to the differing powers on display. Iran has to feign its strength in a managed presentation of restrained and muted anger. The US and Israel get to break taboos daily, shattering Iran's long-held position as a regional power in under ten days, and perhaps ending its ambitions to be a nuclear power. There is now only one real red line left for the United States or Israel to cross, and that is to directly target Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But that may seem ill-advised, given the likelihood this octogenarian theocrat would be replaced by a younger hardliner who is keener to flex Iran's muscles of deterrence. Better to accept toothless retaliations amid Tehran's slow decline. Each expression of Iran's anger has confirmed its slow erosion of power. An angry fledging nuclear power would have accelerated its race to an atomic bomb. That may still happen. But it looks more likely that Iran is desperately hoping its performative lashing out can sate what remains of its hardliners, decimated by Israeli strikes. It may even hope to shuffle back to diplomacy, with talks to contain a nuclear program and ballistic missile stockpile likely severely depleted to shadows of what they were merely ten days ago.
