Commodity price influence on Canadian equities: A 2025 outlook
In 2025, the Canadian stock market—particularly the S&P/TSX Composite Index—has been significantly influenced by fluctuations in global commodity prices. As a resource-rich nation, Canada's economic and market performance is closely tied to the fortunes of its key commodity sectors: energy (oil and gas), mining (metals and minerals), and agriculture. This article explores how recent trends in these sectors are shaping investor sentiment and driving gains in Canadian equities.
1. Energy sector: Oil prices fuelling market momentum
The energy sector, a heavyweight in the TSX, has seen a resurgence in 2025. Crude oil prices have remained volatile but relatively strong, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecasted to average around US$75 per barrel. This strength is underpinned by:
Geopolitical tensions , including expanded sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil exports.
, including expanded sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil exports. OPEC+ production discipline , which has helped stabilize global supply.
, which has helped stabilize global supply. Rising demand from Europe and Asia, particularly for liquefied natural gas (LNG), with Canada benefiting from new export capacity coming online.
These dynamics have buoyed Canadian energy giants like Suncor Energy (TSX:SU), Cenovus (TSX:CVE), and Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ), contributing positively to the TSX Composite Index.
2. Mining Sector: Mixed signals from metals
The mining sector has experienced divergent trends in 2025:
Precious metals (like gold and silver) have gained due to investor hedging against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
(like gold and silver) have gained due to investor hedging against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Base metals (such as copper and nickel) have faced downward pressure due to a strong U.S. dollar and concerns over global industrial demand, particularly from China.
Despite these headwinds, Canadian mining companies with diversified portfolios—like Teck Resources and Barrick Gold—have managed to maintain investor interest, especially as gold prices remain elevated.
3. Agriculture: Oversupply weighs on crop prices
Agricultural commodities have been a drag on the TSX in 2025. Global crop markets are experiencing oversupply, with strong harvests in both hemispheres. This has led to:
Depressed grain and oilseed prices , affecting Canadian agribusinesses.
, affecting Canadian agribusinesses. Stable but unremarkable livestock prices, with cattle seeing modest gains due to tight supply.
While not as dominant as energy or mining, agriculture still plays a role in regional economies and smaller TSX-listed firms, which have seen mixed performance.
4. Broader market impact: S&P/TSX Composite Index trends
The S&P/TSX Composite Index has shown resilience and moderate gains in 2025, largely driven by:
Strong performance in energy and select mining stocks .
. Investor rotation into commodities as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk.
against inflation and geopolitical risk. Weaker performance in agriculture and consumer sectors, partly due to reduced household purchasing power from lower terms of trade.
Overall, the index reflects Canada's commodity-driven economic structure, with resource sectors acting as both a buffer and a booster in uncertain global conditions.
What investors should watch
For investors, the key takeaways are:
Energy remains a stronghold , but watch for shifts in global demand and OPEC+ policy.
, but watch for shifts in global demand and OPEC+ policy. Mining offers selective opportunities , especially in precious metals.
, especially in precious metals. Agriculture may underperform, unless supply-demand dynamics shift.
As always, diversification and sector-specific analysis are crucial. With commodities continuing to shape the Canadian market narrative, staying informed on global trends is essential for navigating the TSX in 2025.
The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. For full disclaimer information, please click here.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Toronto Star
2 hours ago
- Toronto Star
Nova Scotia's ambitious ‘Wind West' offshore energy plan wins support with conditions
HALIFAX - Two leading environmental groups are giving a thumbs up to Nova Scotia's ambitious plan to dramatically expand its fledgling offshore wind energy industry. But both groups were quick to add caveats. On Monday, Premier Tim Houston said the province's plan to license enough offshore wind farms to produce five megawatts of electricity would be increased eightfold to 40 megawatts, well beyond the 2.4 megawatts Nova Scotia needs. He called on Ottawa to help cover the costs of his new Wind West project, saying the excess electricity could be used to supply 27 per cent of Canada's total demand. 'Nova Scotia is on the edge of a clean energy breakthrough,' the Progressive Conservative premier said in an online video, adding the province is poised to become an 'energy superpower.' ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Gretchen Fitzgerald, executive director of Sierra Club Canada, said the premier's bold plan, which includes building transmission lines across the country, represents an exciting opportunity for the province. 'It could be a game-changer for the region and for Canada,' she said in an interview from Ottawa. 'But it needs to be done correctly and with consultations.' Fitzgerald said the Nova Scotia and Canadian governments must focus on securing long-term benefits from the nascent offshore wind industry because they did a poor job on that front when dealing with the offshore oil and gas sector. 'We have to make sure that we are not selling out what is a massive resource for less benefit than communities should have,' Fitzgerald said, adding that Nova Scotia continues to suffer from a high rate of energy poverty. In May of this year, utility affordability expert Roger Colton produced a report showing that 43 per cent of Nova Scotians were struggling to pay their energy bills — the highest proportion in Canada. While Fitzgerald applauded Houston's clean energy plan, she criticized what she described as the premier's populist penchant for taking decisive action before consulting with experts and the public. 'Moving from a couple hundred turbines to thousands in the next decade needs to be done in a staged way so we learn how to do this right,' she said, adding Houston appears to have adopted a ''move-fast-and-break-things mentality.' ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW '(That) can lead to unacceptable harm to sensitive ocean life,' she said. 'From a community benefits and acceptance point of view, breaking trust can be the biggest barrier to getting to good climate solutions.' In October 2023, the Public Policy Forum released a study saying Sable Island Bank, an ocean area about 180 kilometres south of Nova Scotia, is among the world's best locations for wind energy generation. 'It and several other similarly endowed areas off the coast of Atlantic Canada hold the potential to place the region among the leading global hubs of offshore wind-powered energy development,' says the report from the independent non-profit think tank. It goes on to say that as the world shifts from a dependence on fossil fuels to forms of energy that do not emit climate-changing greenhouse gases, Atlantic Canada is facing 'a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity ... to recover an economic vitality comparable to the Age of Sail — fittingly built again on the power of wind at sea.' The report says the installation of 15 gigawatts of offshore wind generation would create about 30,000 direct jobs annually. Despite the hype, the industry must also earn acceptance from Nova Scotia's fishing industry, which in 2023 contributed $2.5 billion to the province's economy and employed 19,000 people. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW In Halifax, a spokesman for the Ecology Action Centre called on the provincial government to build public trust, especially with coastal communities. 'There really needs to be a priority on stakeholder engagement for all ocean users,' said senior energy co-ordinator Thomas Arnason McNeil. 'We're going to need to prioritize ecological safeguards and preserve the existing livelihoods that we have. That includes the fishing industry. That's half the economy in Nova Scotia.' Still, he said the province's big push for clean energy is on the right track, especially when it comes to building out its electricity grid to better connect with the rest of the country. If done right, the payoff would be enormous, Arnason McNeil said. 'We're talking serious job creation here and a lot of revenue potentially,' he said. 'The bottom line is that you have to do this right. (But) the prize at the end of the road is monumental in terms of the benefits.' A call for bids to build enough offshore turbines to generate five gigawatts of electricity is expected as early as this year. This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 8, 2025.
Winnipeg Free Press
2 hours ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Nova Scotia's ambitious ‘Wind West' offshore energy plan wins support with conditions
HALIFAX – Two leading environmental groups are giving a thumbs up to Nova Scotia's ambitious plan to dramatically expand its fledgling offshore wind energy industry. But both groups were quick to add caveats. On Monday, Premier Tim Houston said the province's plan to license enough offshore wind farms to produce five megawatts of electricity would be increased eightfold to 40 megawatts, well beyond the 2.4 megawatts Nova Scotia needs. He called on Ottawa to help cover the costs of his new Wind West project, saying the excess electricity could be used to supply 27 per cent of Canada's total demand. 'Nova Scotia is on the edge of a clean energy breakthrough,' the Progressive Conservative premier said in an online video, adding the province is poised to become an 'energy superpower.' Gretchen Fitzgerald, executive director of Sierra Club Canada, said the premier's bold plan, which includes building transmission lines across the country, represents an exciting opportunity for the province. 'It could be a game-changer for the region and for Canada,' she said in an interview from Ottawa. 'But it needs to be done correctly and with consultations.' Fitzgerald said the Nova Scotia and Canadian governments must focus on securing long-term benefits from the nascent offshore wind industry because they did a poor job on that front when dealing with the offshore oil and gas sector. 'We have to make sure that we are not selling out what is a massive resource for less benefit than communities should have,' Fitzgerald said, adding that Nova Scotia continues to suffer from a high rate of energy poverty. In May of this year, utility affordability expert Roger Colton produced a report showing that 43 per cent of Nova Scotians were struggling to pay their energy bills — the highest proportion in Canada. While Fitzgerald applauded Houston's clean energy plan, she criticized what she described as the premier's populist penchant for taking decisive action before consulting with experts and the public. 'Moving from a couple hundred turbines to thousands in the next decade needs to be done in a staged way so we learn how to do this right,' she said, adding Houston appears to have adopted a ''move-fast-and-break-things mentality.' '(That) can lead to unacceptable harm to sensitive ocean life,' she said. 'From a community benefits and acceptance point of view, breaking trust can be the biggest barrier to getting to good climate solutions.' In October 2023, the Public Policy Forum released a study saying Sable Island Bank, an ocean area about 180 kilometres south of Nova Scotia, is among the world's best locations for wind energy generation. 'It and several other similarly endowed areas off the coast of Atlantic Canada hold the potential to place the region among the leading global hubs of offshore wind-powered energy development,' says the report from the independent non-profit think tank. It goes on to say that as the world shifts from a dependence on fossil fuels to forms of energy that do not emit climate-changing greenhouse gases, Atlantic Canada is facing 'a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity … to recover an economic vitality comparable to the Age of Sail — fittingly built again on the power of wind at sea.' The report says the installation of 15 gigawatts of offshore wind generation would create about 30,000 direct jobs annually. Despite the hype, the industry must also earn acceptance from Nova Scotia's fishing industry, which in 2023 contributed $2.5 billion to the province's economy and employed 19,000 people. In Halifax, a spokesman for the Ecology Action Centre called on the provincial government to build public trust, especially with coastal communities. 'There really needs to be a priority on stakeholder engagement for all ocean users,' said senior energy co-ordinator Thomas Arnason McNeil. 'We're going to need to prioritize ecological safeguards and preserve the existing livelihoods that we have. That includes the fishing industry. That's half the economy in Nova Scotia.' Monday Mornings The latest local business news and a lookahead to the coming week. Still, he said the province's big push for clean energy is on the right track, especially when it comes to building out its electricity grid to better connect with the rest of the country. If done right, the payoff would be enormous, Arnason McNeil said. 'We're talking serious job creation here and a lot of revenue potentially,' he said. 'The bottom line is that you have to do this right. (But) the prize at the end of the road is monumental in terms of the benefits.' A call for bids to build enough offshore turbines to generate five gigawatts of electricity is expected as early as this year. This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 8, 2025.
Globe and Mail
2 hours ago
- Globe and Mail
The 3 Best Growth Stocks to Buy With $100 Right Now
Growth stocks have been some of the best-performing investments over the last few years, but 2025 brought some challenges for growth investors. The increased volatility from growing global trade tensions and economic uncertainty hasn't been kind. Nonetheless, the S&P 500 Growth index has managed to eke out some outperformance of the S&P 500 index over the last month or so. With more downside from factors like tariffs priced into many growth stocks now compared to the beginning of the year, there could be room for them to continue outperforming through the rest of the year and beyond. Still, investors should remain mindful to be sure they're getting good value for the price they're paying. You can still overpay for a great growth stock. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue » Importantly, you don't need a lot of money to get started with investing. Even if you have just $100 available to invest, you can buy shares in any of the following three great growth stocks that could outperform over the coming years. 1. Marvell Technology Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) is a chip designer that's been a big beneficiary of the growth in artificial intelligence spending. There are two primary areas where Marvell's business benefits from the strong growth in generative AI infrastructure: its custom AI accelerators and its networking chips. Marvell is the company behind Amazon 's Trainium 2 custom AI accelerator, and it recently won Amazon's Inferentia order to make its custom AI inference chips. It also works with the three other hyperscalers (Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms) for various data center chip designs, including Microsoft's Maia AI accelerator. Marvell's stock has been beaten down over concerns about hyperscalers working with other chip designers, like AIchip. However, management reported that it secured deals wth both Amazon and Microsoft to design their next-generation AI accelerators during the company's first-quarter earnings call. That said, given the demand for custom silicon, it's not unreasonable to see one or both of them use a secondary source to supplement Marvell. Marvell also makes networking chips, and it holds a particular advantage in optical modules that transfer data using light. Marvell's chips enable servers to communicate data with each other faster, increasing the efficiency of each cluster's performance. As data centers and clusters grow bigger and bigger, demand for Marvell's networking chips stands to grow considerably. Marvell stock trades for around $65 per share as of this writing. That gives it a forward P/E of just 23, which is an exceptional value considering the growth prospects ahead of it. While the growing reliance on a few select customers makes the company risky, it looks secure in its ability to hold onto those customers and grow its business. And given the price, there's less downside to the stock than just a few months ago when it traded at more than twice the price. 2. Block Block (NYSE: XYZ) is the company behind Cash App and Square. It disappointed investors recently due to a shortfall in Cash App's gross profit growth in the first quarter. But the recent sell-off could be a great opportunity for growth investors. Cash App aims to increase revenue per user through growing spend on the Cash Card (where it collects interchange fees) and expanding the number of services its users engage with in the app. The more services a user takes, the more likely they are to stick with the app. Its most recent service is Cash App Borrow, which gives users small, short-duration loans. The new product could help address the core issue leading to disappointing results for Cash App last quarter: a slowdown in spending. That result speaks to the more vulnerable nature of Cash App's core users. In an economic slowdown, Cash App users may be the first to cut back on spending. Major credit card networks notably didn't see a slowdown last quarter. The Square side of the business remains a leader in onboarding small businesses. It's focused on several core verticals, including restaurants, beauty, and services businesses. That's enabled it to build out a core software stack that makes it easy for small businesses to get up and running on its platform and start transacting. That's produced predictable growth and return on customer acquisition spending as it continues to grow its share of the microbusiness market while working to move upstream to bigger businesses. Block's current share price of around $63 is just 16.5 times analysts' estimates for 2026 earnings. While Block is expected to see an earnings dip this year, it should quickly recover in 2026, surpassing 2024 earnings. While short-term economic uncertainty has weighed on the stock (as it should), the long-term outlook remains strong thanks to its growing ecosystem and the network effect driving customer growth and retention. 3. DraftKings DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) is one of the largest sports betting companies in North America. The company successfully leveraged its brand in Daily Fantasy Sports to rapidly expand into sports betting after a Supreme Court ruling legalized it in 2018. That brand strength gives it a significant advantage in the sports betting market. That's seen in its ability to attract about 400,000 new monthly unique payers to its platform over the past year despite increased competition from well-known brands like ESPN and Fanatics. But the growing popularity of DraftKings creates a second advantage for the business: more and better user data. Data is an extremely valuable asset in sports betting. Better data means more accurate and up-to-date money lines, more personalized and effective promotions, and faster expansion into new bet types, like in-game parlays. It can also help identify sharp bettors and mitigate the losses the sportsbook makes, and identify acquisition opportunities like DraftKing's recent Jackpocket purchase. DraftKings faces potential headwinds from lawmakers and regulators. Illinois recently passed a new tax law requiring sportsbooks to pay $0.25 per bet for the first 20 million bets and $0.50 per bet thereafter. DraftKings may be better positioned to absorb taxes like that than smaller sportsbooks with less regional coverage. DraftKings can shift its marketing focus to friendlier states where it can generate better profit margins. DraftKings did lower its revenue and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) expectations alongside its first-quarter earnings report. Still, at just $34 per share, the stock trades for an enterprise value -to-forward-EBITDA ratio of about 21 based on management's outlook for 2025. Management's long-term outlook calls for an average EBITDA growth of 35% for 2026 through 2028 based on its 2025 outlook. That makes the current price a great value for growth investors. Should you invest $1,000 in Marvell Technology right now? Before you buy stock in Marvell Technology, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Marvell Technology wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $669,517!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $868,615!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor 's total average return is792% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to171%for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025 Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Adam Levy has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Block, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool recommends Marvell Technology and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
