Italy's Banca Mediolanum raises 2025 net inflows outlook
The bank, which operates both domestically and internationally, now expects net inflows into managed assets between 8 and 8.5 billion euros, compared to the previous estimate in line with the figure of 7.64 billion euros achieved in 2024.
The group also updated its net interest income (NII) target, now seen down by around 3% from last year, against the previously forecast decline of 5%.
($1 = 0.8743 euros)
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Daily Mail
24 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
UK house price affordability rises to highest level in a decade
By The house price to income ratio is the lowest it has been for more than a decade, according to Britain's biggest building society. But the current house price to earnings ratio is still above the long-run average of 4.8. The interest rate on a typical five-year fixed-rate mortgage is, according to Nationwide, around 4.3 per cent for a borrower with a 25 per cent deposit. Iain McKenzie, chief executive of the Guild of Property Professionals, said: 'For sellers, realistic pricing is crucial to capture buyers' attention in a more competitive landscape. 'For buyers, the combination of more choice and the likelihood of further mortgage rate improvements creates a compelling window of opportunity.' Emma Jones, managing director at When the Bank Says No, said: 'There will be high-fives among aspiring homebuyers around the country as homes become slightly more affordable. 'The price of a typical home is now around 5.75 times average income, and while this is still high, it's considerably better than what it was after the pandemic.' She added: 'Given that we're seeing a lot more lenders competing on affordability, more doors will hopefully be opened for aspiring homebuyers. 'Yes, there are still headwinds but any improvement in affordability is a small win for buyers.' What's happened to house prices? Nationwide's latest House Price Index showed house prices increased by 0.6 per cent monthly baus on average in July, following a 0.9 per cent fall in June. The annual rate of house price growth accelerated to 2.4 per cent in July, from 2.1 per cent in June, Nationwide said. This took the average UK house price to £272,664, against just over £271,000 in June. Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, said: 'Looking through the volatility generated by the end of the stamp duty holiday, activity appears to be holding up well. 'Indeed, 64,200 mortgages for house purchase were approved in June, broadly in line with the pre-pandemic average, despite the changed interest rate environment.' Gardner said that despite wider economic uncertainties in the global economy, underlying conditions for prospective buyers remained solid. He said: 'Unemployment remains low, earnings are still rising at a healthy pace, household balance sheets are strong and borrowing costs are likely to moderate a little further if (the Bank of England base rate) is lowered further in the coming quarters as we, and most other analysts, expect. 'Providing the broader economic recovery is maintained, housing market activity is likely to continue to strengthen gradually in the quarters ahead.' Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, said: 'Lower mortgage rates, with the expectation of more reductions to come, are giving the market impetus and putting borrowers in a stronger position when it comes to negotiating their property purchase. This, in turn, is keeping prices in check. 'With the markets expecting a further rate reduction next week, we could be in for a busy autumn. Lenders continue to trim their mortgage rates, while easing of mortgage lending rules should also enable borrowers to take on bigger mortgages in coming months.' This week, HM Revenue and Customs reported that house sales rose 13 per cent month-on-month in June. Across Britain, it estimated that 93,530 home sales took place during the month, which was 1 per cent higher than in June 2024. Recent Bank of England figures show mortgage approvals for house purchases have ticked upwards, with around 64,200 approvals made to home buyers in June, representing the highest figure since March this year. Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, said: 'The "up a bit" in prices following last month's "down a bit" is hardly surprising given the considerable overhang of available property in most price ranges. 'But sufficient price growth is essential to ensure there continues to be a good supply of listings and offers. 'On the ground, transactions are holding together relatively well. As a result, looking forward we expect to see a modest improvement all round, particularly if interest rates are reduced in the next month or so as widely expected, despite lingering concerns about the economy.' The Bank of England will be voting on whether or not to increase or cut interest rates next Thursday. Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said: 'Sticky inflation means a probable cut by the Bank of England next week may only be followed by one more this year. Despite a modest uptick in July, high levels of supply are keeping a lid on prices and means it is still very much a buyers' market.' Karen Noye, a mortgage expert at Quilter, said: 'All eyes will be on the Bank of England next week and what it decides to do with interest rates. 'It was thought that a rate cut was fairly certain on Thursday, but recent inflation data coming in higher than expected may just temper things slightly and force buyers to wait. 'Should the Bank of England follow through with a rate cut, however, that will help support the buyers.' Recent data from Zoopla showed a stamp duty raid has dragged the vast majority of buyers into paying the hated tax on property purchases. Zoopla claimed 83 per cent of buyers would pay stamp duty if they bought a home today, compared to 49 per cent before April, when the tax rules changed.
Reuters
25 minutes ago
- Reuters
Global shares in red after US jobs data, Trump's tariff salvo
LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Global shares remained in the red on Friday after weaker than expected U.S. jobs data prompted markets to add to rate cut bets from the Federal Reserve, following earlier losses sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariffs salvo. Nasdaq futures and S&P 500 futures were down about 1% after the data, broadly in line with where they were before the release. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX), opens new tab fell 1.4%, taking its weekly fall to about 2% and putting it on track for its biggest weekly drop since Trump announced his first major wave of tariffs on April 2. The U.S. economy added 73,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, below expectations for 110,000 in a Reuters survey of economists. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. "There's no way to pretty-up this report," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. "Last year the Fed messed up by not cutting in July so they did a catch-up cut at their next meeting. They'll likely have to do the same thing this year." Money market traders added to bets for a rate cut from the Fed at its September meeting. Markets imply around a 90% chance of a rate cut next month, compared with about 45% before the jobs data, according to LSEG data. The softer labour market figures arrived a day after Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on U.S. imports from several major trading partners. Rates were set at 25% for India's U.S.-bound exports, 20% for Taiwan's, 19% for Thailand's and 15% for South Korea's. He also increased duties on Canadian goods to 35% from 25% for all products not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, but gave Mexico a 90-day reprieve from higher tariffs to negotiate a broader trade deal. "The August 1 announcement on reciprocal tariffs is somewhat worse than expected," said Wei Yao, research head and chief economist in Asia at Société Générale. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab fell 1.5%, bringing the total loss this week to roughly 2.7%. Japan's Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab closed 0.7% lower, Chinese blue chips (.CSI300), opens new tab ended 0.5% down and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HIS), opens new tab lost more than 1%. The U.S. dollar had earlier found support from fading prospects of imminent U.S. rate cuts, but reversed course after the data. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six others, was last down 1% on the day. The yen had weakened past 150 per dollar for the first time since April but strengthened to 148.71 per dollar after the data. The Bank of Japan held interest rates steady on Thursday and revised up its near-term inflation expectations, but Governor Kazuo Ueda sounded a little dovish in the press conference. Two-year Treasury yields , which are sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, dropped 17.5 basis points to 3.7761%. Benchmark 10-year yields slipped 9 basis points to 4.273%. In commodity markets, oil prices continued to fall after a 1% plunge on Thursday. Brent dipped 0.3% to $71.55 per barrel, while U.S. crude fell 0.1% to $69.22 per barrel. Spot gold rose 1.3% to $3,332 an ounce.
Telegraph
25 minutes ago
- Telegraph
Reeves tells universities: Let defence firms recruit your students
Rachel Reeves has called on universities to do more to ensure defence companies can attend careers fairs without facing intimidation. The Chancellor told The Telegraph there should be 'no barriers' to young people taking jobs in the sector as the world gets more dangerous and uncertain. The intervention was triggered by concerns that Left-wing student unions protesting the presence of defence firms at careers events was discouraging attendance. Ms Reeves told The Telegraph: 'A strong national defence can build a strong economy too. By backing Britain's defence industry, we can create new jobs, opportunities, and investments in our industrial heartlands. 'We can give the next generation the chance to work in high-skilled, well-paid part of the economy. 'But those opportunities can only be seized if we make them available to everyone. That's why it's right that companies should be allowed to attend university career events or recruitment fairs. 'There should be no barriers to young people having the chance to decide on their own futures or crucial part of the British economy being shut out of hiring the best and the brightest.' The Telegraph has been told of incidents when defence companies have cancelled sending employees to jobs fairs due to fears they will be barracked by vocal critics. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and concerns about the growing influence of China have contributed to Western nations, including the UK, markedly increasing defence spending. The Government has for months been taking steps to counter long-standing negative portrayals of the defence sector, talking up its importance to UK national security. Student protests create hostile environment Business leaders whose firms make military equipment have personally complained to the Chancellor that they were effectively barred from some university careers fairs. There is no ban by the university sector or individual universities on defence companies sending representatives to events where students look for future jobs. However, often a hostile environment is created by student protesters, according to multiple well-placed figures in the defence sector and the Government. It means executives are sometimes taking the decision not to attend certain careers fairs, fearing it would be an unpleasant experience for those employees – often recent graduates themselves – who are sent in. A source at one defence company described how they took that decision after learning of a planned protest where the firm would be accused of being 'dealers of death'. The source said: 'We have had instances where student groups on campuses have taken the fact we are there as a problem. We have seen some pretty unpleasant campaigns with those groups to try to agitate within student unions.' Defence firms have anecdotal evidence that confrontational protests have become more common since Hamas's Oct 7 attack on Israel, after which there has been heightened scrutiny of connections between the British defence industry and Israel. It comes amid pro-Palestine protests on campuses across the country in the wake of Oct 7 and Israel's subsequent military campaign in Gaza. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) is also aware of the issue of defence companies feeling they cannot attend some university careers events and is monitoring it. The concerns have emerged at a time when the UK is set to need even more home-grown engineers and scientists for the defence sector as government spending in that space soars. The Chancellor, who an ally said had been a consistent champion behind the scenes of Britain's defence companies, recently signed off a marked increase in defence spending. The UK's defence spending will rise from around 2.3 per cent of GDP to 2.5 per cent GDP by 2027 – or to 2.6 per cent when money for the intelligence agencies is included for the first time. There is also a looser ambition to hit 3 per cent by the early 2030s, as well as a new Nato target to reach 3.5 per cent on core defence spending by 2035. Labour has already pressed financial institutions to change their definition of environmental, social and governance to make sure that defence companies are not being locked out of potential funding. There was a 9 per cent drop in investment in defence companies from UK funds between the start of 2022 and late 2023, according to London Stock Exchange data. Jonathan Reynolds, the Business Secretary, met senior figures at defence firms and banks last December to press his concerns about barriers to investment in the sector. Meanwhile, Labour has also taken steps to protect free speech on university campuses since entering office last summer, retaining proposed Tory legislation in that space after initially signalling it would be dropped. Ms Reeves said: 'The world is changing and we can see that before our eyes. It is becoming more dangerous, more insecure and more uncertain. 'But the job of the Government is not simply to step back and watch that change happen, but to take action to keep our country safe. 'That is why we have announced the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War and an ambition to spend 3 per cent of GDP on defence in the next parliament.'
