Jamie Dimon says the markets feel 'complacent' right now — and he's not optimistic about a soft landing

Business Insider

2 days ago

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said people could be in for a surprise when they realize that the market is not doing as well as they think.
Dimon was speaking to Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo for an interview filmed on Friday, which aired on Monday. During the sit-down, Bartiromo asked him about his thoughts on how the markets are doing.
"Complacent. Prices are high. Things are going okay. Prices are kind of working to a soft landing. I hope that's true. I just think the odds of that are lower than other people think, and that they are gonna surprise," Dimon told Bartiromo.
"There's so many things moving out there, from deficits to geopolitics, to trade. It's complex, and something can go wrong. And when things do, you usually get surprised," he continued.
A representative for Dimon did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.
Dimon had made a similar warning when he spoke at the Reagan National Economic Forum on Friday. Dimon said the US is headed for a " crack in the bond market" because it "massively overdid" spending and quantitative easing during the COVID-19 pandemic.
"It is going to happen," Dimon told forum attendees.
"I just don't know if it's going to be a crisis in six months or six years, and I'm hoping that we change both the trajectory of the debt and the ability of market makers to make markets," he added.
But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent disagreed with Dimon.
"I've known Jamie a long time and for his entire career he's made predictions like this. Fortunately, none of them have come true," Bessent said in an interview on CBS' "Face the Nation" on Sunday.
"That's why he's a banker, a great banker. He tries to look around the corner," Bessent continued.
House Republicans passed President Donald Trump's " big beautiful bill" on May 22. GOP lawmakers hope the bill, which is now with the Senate, will be reach Trump's desk on July 4.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said the bill, in its current form, will increase the deficit by $2.5 trillion over the next 10 years.
Bessent, however, said the Trump administration plans to reduce the deficit and "leave the country in great shape in 2028."
"So the deficit this year is going to be lower than the deficit last year, and in two years it will be lower again. We are going to bring the deficit down slowly. We didn't get here in one year, and this has been a long process," he told CBS on Sunday.
To be sure, Dimon isn't the only one who thinks the market has grown complacent.
On Monday, "Big Short" investor Steve Eisman told CNBC's "Fast Money" that the market has "gotten pretty complacent" about tariffs.
"I have one concern, and that's tariffs. That's it," Eisman said, adding that trade negotiations with Europe will be "incredibly complicated."
"And I don't know what's going to happen with China. I just don't know how to handicap this because it's just too many balls in the air," he continued.