Trump's tariff war: How China is preparing for a long-haul battle
(File photo)
A federal court may have thrown a wrench into Donald Trump's latest trade manoeuvres, but Beijing is reading between the lines and preparing for war. Not with missiles, but with microchips, emergency planning, and a sharp eye on Washington's next move.
As the US president pushes ahead with his hardline tariff agenda, only temporarily paused and now legally challenged, China's leadership is bracing for a protracted economic confrontation. From official Communist Party journals to Chinese economists, the message from Beijing is clear: this fight isn't over, and it won't be short.
A three-judge panel of the US Court of International Trade ruled that Trump's use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose punitive tariffs, up to 50 per cent on nations with trade surpluses and 10 per cent on others, exceeded the executive's mandate.
The court combined two lawsuits from US businesses and state governments, and while it upheld some tariffs imposed under other statutes, it struck down those relying on IEEPA.
Despite the temporary truce and a 90-day pause on the more aggressive 'reciprocal' tariffs, the Trump administration has already appealed the ruling.
Trade expert Wendy Cutler said the ruling 'throws the president's trade policy into turmoil.'
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Speaking to the SCMP, she added, 'Partners negotiating hard during the 90-day tariff pause period may be tempted to hold off making further concessions to the US until there is more legal clarity.'
'Resolving trade issues won't happen overnight'
In response to Washington's shifting trade posture, China's top Communist Party journal, Qiushi, issued a pointed message on the eve of new US curbs targeting China's semiconductor and education sectors. In a commentary reviewed by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the journal warned of an even more hostile global environment and urged Chinese policymakers to prepare for long-term confrontation.
'The US turned away from the negotiating table and immediately intensified its pressure on China's semiconductor industry,' it said. 'This shows that resolving trade issues won't happen overnight.'
Beijing is being urged to prepare contingency measures in the face of sustained pressure. 'With solid fundamentals, strong resilience, and rich experience in macroeconomic management and trade frictions, China...
has the confidence and capacity to tackle current economic challenges,' the commentary added.
Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China at Standard Chartered, echoed the sentiment, saying Beijing has been operating under worst-case planning since early this year. 'It was expected that the US would not ease restrictions on China,' he told SCMP. 'If Sino-US trade frictions re-escalate... additional stimulus measures may be introduced.'
'Trump switches 'gloves' depending on situation'
Even before the court's decision, Chinese scholars were already warning of the need to brace for a new phase in Washington's tactics. Wu Xinbo, dean of Fudan University's Institute of International Studies, told SCMP that while Trump may continue using tariffs, 'he would definitely exercise more restraint going forward, avoiding the extremes seen in the first phase.'
Wu cautioned that Trump may now pivot to using pressure tools in science, diplomacy and security, particularly as previous tariffs showed limited effect on China but significant domestic fallout in the US, as detailed by Washington revoking Visa's for Chinese students.
In a potential shift of personnel, Wu speculated that Trump might again empower hardliners like Peter Navarro or Stephen Miran to lead negotiations—figures associated with more aggressive strategies and decoupling from China. For now, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, seen as a pragmatist, is steering talks.
'Trump switches 'gloves' depending on the situation,' Wu said. 'This is one of his signature tactics.'
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