What Ohtani can show us about the collectibles market impact of Victor Wembanyama's injury
There are glass half empty and glass half full mentalities for the sports collectibles world with the stunning news that San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama will miss the rest of the season with a blood clot in his right shoulder.
The glass half empty? There's little doubt the market for Wembanyama's rookie and autographed cards will take a dive over the coming months as a long injury layoff leads into the standard offseason lull. That's just the nature of the industry when an extended injury hits a hobby giant.
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Make no mistake about it, though. Wemby remains a hobby giant. The top five most searched athletes in eBay's global collectibles category during January 2025: Jayden Daniels, Michael Jordan, Wembanyama, Caitlin Clark, Bo Nix. Wembanyama was also among the 10 most searched athletes on eBay every single month in 2024. Only Jordan, C.J. Stroud and Kobe Bryant achieved that feat along with him.
The Spurs phenom dominates a currently slow NBA market for active players. Heading into this season, PSA (Professional Sports Authenticator) graded more Wembanyama cards than those for the next nine active NBA players combined. That said, the values for his more recognizable cards have slowed already before the injury as the initial hype from his rookie season began to wear off even as he continued to perform at a high level, appearing in his first All-Star Game on Sunday.
His popular 2023 Panini Prizm Silver rookie card with a PSA 10 grade currently holds a value of $800, according to Card Ladder, which tracks sales across major marketplaces. That's nearly a 60 percent decrease from where the card stood last year at this time. That said, the card's value was building back up in the past three months with an 8.1 percent increase since Nov. 21.
The injury will likely put a sudden end to that climb.
Not even Shohei Ohtani's cards could withstand a drop in value once the news that he needed surgery to repair his right elbow came to light.
Ohtani's 2018 Bowman Chrome rookie card with a PSA 10 grade sold for $1,385.70 in early-August 2023. The card took a nose dive following the injury news later that month, falling to as low as $483 in mid-October 2023. The card bounced back to as high as $861 in early January 2024 as he moved to the LA Dodgers. It jumped as high as $1,095 in mid-October 2024 and hit its six-month high point of $1,150 on Feb. 5 following his historic 50/50 season.
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What could be taken away from the price fluctuations for Ohtani is the glass half full perspective for those looking to snag Wemby cards at a more affordable price after his injury.
While Wemby will miss the rest of this season with the ailment, this may not have long-term effects on his career.
Then-Lakers forward Brandon Ingram dealt with a similar issue in March 2019 in the same shoulder and returned healthy to start the following season. Last season, Detroit Pistons forward Ausar Thompson's rookie campaign ended because of a blood clot. He returned to game action eight months after the diagnosis near the end of November.
If this proves to just be a temporary setback, the 21-year-old Wembanyama has plenty of time to get his All-Star and possibly first-team All-NBA status back once he's cleared to play again and still have the historic career many expect him to have.
With that in mind, if there's ever a time to buy a Wemby 2023 Panini Prizm Silver rookie card in a high grade, or any of his other short-print parallel rookie cards from that set, it could be within the next few months as prices should fall with him being out of sight and out of mind for the average collector.
The lowest price in the past year on a Wemby 2023 Prizm Silver PSA 10 occurred Dec. 15 with a sale of $628.40. For perspective, the highest sale occurred March 2 last year for $2,424.60.
Meanwhile, the butterfly effect of Wembanyama's injury will be interesting to track over the coming months, as well. With his outside influence on the hobby diminished, will collectors gravitate toward other athletes, sending their card values up?
Ultimately the decision on whether this is an ideal time to buy or sell Wemby cards will come down to each individual collector and their tolerance for the inherent risk that comes with sports cards of active athletes.
The Athletic maintains full editorial independence in all our coverage. When you click or make purchases through our links, we may earn a commission.
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