Economy Enters 2025 on Strong Footing as Markets Digest Policy Uncertainty
Mortgage Rates Predicted to End 2025 at 6.6 Percent but Remain Volatile
WASHINGTON, Feb. 20, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Incoming gross domestic product (GDP), labor market, and inflation data point to an economy that entered 2025 with strong momentum, according to the February 2025 commentary from the Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. While the ESR Group's GDP outlook is unchanged at 2.2 percent Q4/Q4 in 2025, it revised upward its expectations for the Consumer Price Index, which is now forecast to end 2025 at 2.8 percent on a year-over-year basis (2.5 percent previously), primarily due to recently higher-than-expected inflation readings. Further, the ESR Group incorporated the recently implemented 10-percent additional tariff on imports from China into its February forecast; it expects the tariffs will have a small negative impact on growth and put slight upward pressure on inflation. However, the ESR Group notes that current risks to the outlook are higher than normal due to uncertainty around trade policy, including additional tariff proposals.
The ESR Group now expects mortgage rates to end 2025 and 2026 at 6.6 and 6.5 percent, respectively, upward revisions from its prior outlook. The ESR Group notes there are plausible scenarios for both upward and downward movement in mortgage rates due to trade policies, but its expectations for mortgage rate volatility this year remains intact as markets react to trade policy announcements, incoming economic data, and other fiscal policy changes. Additionally, the ESR Group made modest upward revisions to its existing home sales outlook for 2025 due to a stronger-than-expected December sales pace and resilient purchase applications data, but it notes that the level of existing sales is still expected to be 22 percent below the pace seen in 2019.
"Economic growth was strong to start the year as fourth quarter personal consumption data came in above our expectations," said Kim Betancourt, Fannie Mae Vice President of Multifamily Economics and Strategic Research. "Going forward, we expect the economy to decelerate slightly as consumer spending slows to a level more consistent with its historical relationship to income. However, ongoing uncertainty around trade policy adds risk to our GDP and inflation outlooks, which may have implications for mortgage rates, although the direction – up or down – would depend on a number of factors. Higher mortgage rates would exacerbate the existing 'lock-in effect' and worsen affordability, which may then weigh on home sales and mortgage originations activity. Of course, if mortgage rates move lower, we'd likely see an improvement in affordability and a corresponding pickup in housing activity."
Visit the Economic and Strategic Research site at fanniemae.com to read the full February 2025 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, and Housing Forecast. To receive email updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here.
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
About the ESR GroupFannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.
About Fannie MaeFannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:fanniemae.com | X (formerly Twitter) | Facebook | LinkedIn | Instagram | YouTube | Blog
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Miami Herald
an hour ago
- Miami Herald
Completion of Tolmer High Grade Silver Zone Drilling
Planning Underway for Expedited Follow-up RC and Diamond Programs HIGHLIGHTS 2,882m reverse circulation (RC) drilling completed at Tolmer high-grade silver discovery; recent expansion from 13 to 21 holes based upon early drilling program observations[1]Program expanded in all directions with two additional lines to north and south ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA / ACCESS Newswire / June 15, 2025 / Barton Gold Holdings Limited (ASX:BGD)(FRA:BGD3)(OTCQB:BGDFF) (Barton or Company) is pleased to confirm that expanded RC drilling has completed at its recent 'Tolmer' high grade silver discovery, located at the Company's South Australian Tarcoola Gold Project (Tarcoola).1 A total of 2,882m RC drilling was completed across 21 completed holes to an average depth of 137m. Samples are planned to depart site during the coming week, with the first multi-element assay results expected toward the end of July. Figure 1 - Tolmer 'western silver' & 'eastern gold' zones showing expanded silver drilling program Commenting on the Tolmer drilling program, Barton Managing Director Alexander Scanlon said: "We look forward to sharing the assay results for this latest round of Tolmer drilling. The western 'silver zone' is an exciting target, and we are already planning near-term follow up diamond and RC drilling programs. My thanks to the excellent Barton team, and our drilling partners, for the safe execution of this extended program." Program background Barton identified Tolmer as a high-grade gold discovery in August 2024, and subsequently identified a new 'silver zone' ~500m west in a line of seven discovery holes with globally significant assays including:[2] On 22 May Barton commenced a planned program of ~2,500m RC drilling which was designed to infill and extend both the western 'silver zone' and the eastern 'gold zone'.[3] Based upon further geological surface reconnaissance and early observations from drilling, it was decided to expand the 'silver zone' drilling program to gather a larger amount of data on this area with the remaining time available in this program.[4] Seven drill holes originally planned for the eastern 'gold zone' were re-allocated to eight new drill holes in the western 'silver zone', expanding the planned drilling from three to five lines of RC holes. The total Tolmer drilling program was expanded from a planned ~2,500m to a revised final total of 2,882m. Samples will shortly be despatched for expedited laboratory analysis, with the first multi-element assay results expected to be received toward the end of July. Barton has already commenced planning for follow up programs, including diamond drilling for structural orientation and further extensional RC drilling. Figure 2 - Tolmer 'silver zone' cross-section (see Fig. 2) with anomalous Ag-Pb and key intersections 4 Authorised by the Managing Director of Barton Gold Holdings Limited. [1] Refer to ASX announcement dated 10 June 2025 For further information, please contact: About Barton Gold Barton Gold is an ASX, OTCQB and Frankfurt Stock Exchange listed Australian gold developer targeting future gold production of 150,000ozpa with 1.7Moz Au & 3.1Moz Ag JORC Mineral Resources (64.0Mt @ 0.83 g/t Au), brownfield mines, and 100% ownership of the region's only gold mill in the renowned Gawler Craton of South Australia. Competent Persons Statement & Previously Reported Information The information in this announcement that relates to the historic Exploration Results and Mineral Resources as listed in the table below is based on, and fairly represents, information and supporting documentation prepared by the Competent Person whose name appears in the same row, who is an employee of or independent consultant to the Company and is a Member or Fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (AusIMM), Australian Institute of Geoscientists (AIG) or a Recognised Professional Organisation (RPO). Each person named in the table below has sufficient experience which is relevant to the style of mineralisation and types of deposits under consideration and to the activity which he has undertaken to quality as a Competent Person as defined in the JORC Code 2012 (JORC). The information relating to historic Exploration Results and Mineral Resources in this announcement is extracted from the Company's Prospectus dated 14 May 2021 or as otherwise noted in this announcement, available from the Company's website at or on the ASX website The Company confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the Exploration Results and Mineral Resource information included in previous announcements and, in the case of estimates of Mineral Resources, that all material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates, and any production targets and forecast financial information derived from the production targets, continue to apply and have not materially changed. The Company confirms that the form and context in which the applicable Competent Persons' findings are presented have not been materially modified from the previous announcements. Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information This document may contain forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are often, but not always, identified by the use of words such as "seek", "anticipate", "believe", "plan", "expect", "target" and "intend" and statements than an event or result "may", "will", "should", "would", "could", or "might" occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Forward-looking information is subject to business, legal and economic risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among other things, risks relating to property interests, the global economic climate, commodity prices, sovereign and legal risks, and environmental risks. Forward-looking statements are based upon estimates and opinions at the date the statements are made. Barton undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements for events or circumstances that occur subsequent to such dates or to update or keep current any of the information contained herein. Any estimates or projections as to events that may occur in the future (including projections of revenue, expense, net income and performance) are based upon the best judgment of Barton from information available as of the date of this document. There is no guarantee that any of these estimates or projections will be achieved. Actual results will vary from the projections and such variations may be material. Nothing contained herein is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation as to the past or future. Any reliance placed by the reader on this document, or on any forward-looking statement contained in or referred to in this document will be solely at the readers own risk, and readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty thereof. * Refer to Barton Prospectus dated 14 May 2021 and ASX announcement dated 4 March 2025. Total Barton JORC (2012) Mineral Resources include 909koz Au (30.8Mt @ 0.92 g/t Au) in Indicated category and 799koz Au (33.2Mt @ 0.75 g/t Au) in Inferred category, and 3,070koz Ag (34.5Mt @ 2.80 g/t Ag) in Inferred category as a subset of Tunkillia gold JORC (2012) Mineral Resources. SOURCE: Barton Gold Holdings Limited
USA Today
2 hours ago
- USA Today
Completion of Tolmer High Grade Silver Zone Drilling
Planning Underway for Expedited Follow-up RC and Diamond Programs HIGHLIGHTS 2,882m reverse circulation (RC) drilling completed at Tolmer high-grade silver discovery; recent expansion from 13 to 21 holes based upon early drilling program observations [1] Program expanded in all directions with two additional lines to north and south Barton Gold Holdings Limited (ASX:BGD)(FRA:BGD3)(OTCQB:BGDFF) (Barton or Company) is pleased to confirm that expanded RC drilling has completed at its recent 'Tolmer' high grade silver discovery, located at the Company's South Australian Tarcoola Gold Project (Tarcoola).1 A total of 2,882m RC drilling was completed across 21 completed holes to an average depth of 137m. Samples are planned to depart site during the coming week, with the first multi-element assay results expected toward the end of July. Figure 1 – Tolmer 'western silver' & 'eastern gold' zones showing expanded silver drilling program Commenting on the Tolmer drilling program, Barton Managing Director Alexander Scanlon said: 'We look forward to sharing the assay results for this latest round of Tolmer drilling. The western 'silver zone' is an exciting target, and we are already planning near-term follow up diamond and RC drilling programs. My thanks to the excellent Barton team, and our drilling partners, for the safe execution of this extended program.' Program background Barton identified Tolmer as a high-grade gold discovery in August 2024, and subsequently identified a new 'silver zone' ~500m west in a line of seven discovery holes with globally significant assays including:[2] Hole ID Interval Including: TBAC130 6m @ 4,747 g/t Ag from 46 metres 1m @ 17,600 g/t Ag from 46 metres TBM227 4m @ 1,417 g/t Ag from 9 metres 1m @ 3,790 g/t Ag from 9 metres TBM228 14m @ 434 g/t Ag from 46 metres 1m @ 3,350 g/t Ag from 54 metres On 22 May Barton commenced a planned program of ~2,500m RC drilling which was designed to infill and extend both the western 'silver zone' and the eastern 'gold zone'.[3] Based upon further geological surface reconnaissance and early observations from drilling, it was decided to expand the 'silver zone' drilling program to gather a larger amount of data on this area with the remaining time available in this program.[4] Seven drill holes originally planned for the eastern 'gold zone' were re-allocated to eight new drill holes in the western 'silver zone', expanding the planned drilling from three to five lines of RC holes. The total Tolmer drilling program was expanded from a planned ~2,500m to a revised final total of 2,882m. Samples will shortly be despatched for expedited laboratory analysis, with the first multi-element assay results expected to be received toward the end of July. Barton has already commenced planning for follow up programs, including diamond drilling for structural orientation and further extensional RC drilling. Figure 2 – Tolmer 'silver zone' cross-section (see Fig. 2) with anomalous Ag-Pb and key intersections 4 Authorised by the Managing Director of Barton Gold Holdings Limited. [1] Refer to ASX announcement dated 10 June 2025 [2] Refer to ASX announcements dated 27 August 2024 and 30 January, 6 February, 27 March, 16 April and 22 May 2025 [3] Refer to ASX announcement dated 22 May 2025 [4] Refer to ASX announcement dated 10 June 2025 For further information, please contact: Alexander Scanlon Managing Director +61 425 226 649 Jade Cook Company Secretary cosec@ +61 8 9322 1587 About Barton Gold Barton Gold is an ASX, OTCQB and Frankfurt Stock Exchange listed Australian gold developer targeting future gold production of 150,000ozpa with 1.7Moz Au & 3.1Moz Ag JORC Mineral Resources (64.0Mt @ 0.83 g/t Au), brownfield mines, and 100% ownership of the region's only gold mill in the renowned Gawler Craton of South Australia. Tarcoola Gold Project Fully permitted open pit mine with ~20koz Au within trucking distance of Barton's Central Gawler Mill Historical goldfield with new high-grade gold-silver discovery in grades up to 83.6 g/t Au and 17,600 g/t Ag Tunkillia Gold Project 1.6Moz Au & 3.1Moz Ag JORC Mineral Resources Optimised Scoping Study for competitive ~120kozpa gold and ~250kozpa silver bulk open pit operation Key Regional Infrastructure Region's only gold processing plant (650ktpa CIP) Multiple camps / accommodation across projects Competent Persons Statement & Previously Reported Information The information in this announcement that relates to the historic Exploration Results and Mineral Resources as listed in the table below is based on, and fairly represents, information and supporting documentation prepared by the Competent Person whose name appears in the same row, who is an employee of or independent consultant to the Company and is a Member or Fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (AusIMM), Australian Institute of Geoscientists (AIG) or a Recognised Professional Organisation (RPO). Each person named in the table below has sufficient experience which is relevant to the style of mineralisation and types of deposits under consideration and to the activity which he has undertaken to quality as a Competent Person as defined in the JORC Code 2012 (JORC). Activity Competent Person Membership Status Tarcoola Mineral Resource (Stockpiles) Dr Andrew Fowler (Consultant) AusIMM Member Tarcoola Mineral Resource (Perseverance Mine) Mr Ian Taylor (Consultant) AusIMM Fellow Tarcoola Exploration Results (until 15 Nov 2021) Mr Colin Skidmore (Consultant) AIG Member Tarcoola Exploration Results (after 15 Nov 2021) Mr Marc Twining (Employee) AusIMM Member Tunkillia Exploration Results (until 15 Nov 2021) Mr Colin Skidmore (Consultant) AIG Member Tunkillia Exploration Results (after 15 Nov 2021) Mr Marc Twining (Employee) AusIMM Member Tunkillia Mineral Resource Mr Ian Taylor (Consultant) AusIMM Fellow Challenger Mineral Resource Mr Dale Sims (Consultant) AusIMM / AIG Fellow / Member The information relating to historic Exploration Results and Mineral Resources in this announcement is extracted from the Company's Prospectus dated 14 May 2021 or as otherwise noted in this announcement, available from the Company's website at or on the ASX website The Company confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the Exploration Results and Mineral Resource information included in previous announcements and, in the case of estimates of Mineral Resources, that all material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates, and any production targets and forecast financial information derived from the production targets, continue to apply and have not materially changed. The Company confirms that the form and context in which the applicable Competent Persons' findings are presented have not been materially modified from the previous announcements. Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information This document may contain forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are often, but not always, identified by the use of words such as 'seek', 'anticipate', 'believe', 'plan', 'expect', 'target' and 'intend' and statements than an event or result 'may', 'will', 'should', 'would', 'could', or 'might' occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Forward-looking information is subject to business, legal and economic risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among other things, risks relating to property interests, the global economic climate, commodity prices, sovereign and legal risks, and environmental risks. Forward-looking statements are based upon estimates and opinions at the date the statements are made. Barton undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements for events or circumstances that occur subsequent to such dates or to update or keep current any of the information contained herein. Any estimates or projections as to events that may occur in the future (including projections of revenue, expense, net income and performance) are based upon the best judgment of Barton from information available as of the date of this document. There is no guarantee that any of these estimates or projections will be achieved. Actual results will vary from the projections and such variations may be material. Nothing contained herein is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation as to the past or future. Any reliance placed by the reader on this document, or on any forward-looking statement contained in or referred to in this document will be solely at the readers own risk, and readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty thereof. * Refer to Barton Prospectus dated 14 May 2021 and ASX announcement dated 4 March 2025. Total Barton JORC (2012) Mineral Resources include 909koz Au (30.8Mt @ 0.92 g/t Au) in Indicated category and 799koz Au (33.2Mt @ 0.75 g/t Au) in Inferred category, and 3,070koz Ag (34.5Mt @ 2.80 g/t Ag) in Inferred category as a subset of Tunkillia gold JORC (2012) Mineral Resources. SOURCE: Barton Gold Holdings Limited View the original press release on ACCESS Newswire
Politico
18 hours ago
- Politico
Trump has a plan to remake the housing-finance system. It's baffling to many lawmakers and experts.
GOP lawmakers and the mortgage industry are raising questions about the Trump administration's plans to maintain government control over much of the nation's housing finance system, defying expectations that it would back off. President Donald Trump surprised the industry late last month by pledging to take public Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-controlled companies that stand behind half the $16 trillion residential mortgage market — while preserving an implicit federal guarantee for their solvency. His top housing regulator, Bill Pulte, who oversees the companies, added to the confusion by saying the administration is exploring ways to sell shares while keeping the companies under government authority. The insistence on preserving significant sway over the two mortgage giants, which were seized by the Bush administration during the financial crisis and placed in conservatorship, is setting up a potential rift with Republicans — and possibly even some administration aides who have long worked to reduce the government's footprint in the housing market. 'I want to get them out of conservatorship,' said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), chair of the Senate Banking subcommittee with oversight of Fannie and Freddie. 'But I want to be very careful about how we do it, because we need the secondary market, and we need it to work,' he added, referring to the market where mortgage loans are purchased and sold to investors. Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), a member of the House Financial Services Committee, said 'we need to continue to investigate recapitalization and releasing' the companies from government control. The question of what to do with Fannie and Freddie has bedeviled policymakers for decades, with Republicans wanting the government to take its hands off housing finance and Democrats fearing that privatizing the firms would destabilize the market and push up mortgage rates. At stake is a potential windfall of hundreds of billions of dollars for an administration that is staring at massive fiscal deficits. The government holds a roughly $340 billion liquidation preference for the two companies, by one estimate — meaning the money would go to the Treasury Department before anyone else in the event of a sale. Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, will meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins on June 17 to discuss the future of Fannie and Freddie, underscoring the importance of the issue. Fannie and Freddie don't make loans themselves, but rather purchase them from mortgage companies and bundle them into securities to sell on the secondary market, freeing up the lenders to make more loans. That, plus the government guarantee, helps keep mortgage rates down, supporters say. Trump was widely expected to support privatization, after his first administration worked to prepare the companies for their eventual release. But his latest comments look more like what former President Joe Biden would do, according to Jim Parrott, a nonresident fellow at the Urban Institute and a former economic adviser in the Obama White House. 'In the Biden administration, you could imagine a version of this,' Parrott said. 'The fact that we're hearing about it in this administration, I think, is catching folks by surprise.' The FHFA responded in an email that it is 'studying how, if the President elects to take Fannie and Freddie public, it can be done in the safest and soundest manner which includes keeping them in conservatorship.' It added: 'In any scenario, we will ensure the [mortgage-backed securities] market is safe and sound and that there is no upward pressure on rates.' White House deputy press secretary Harrison Fields said the administration 'is committed to strengthening the Federal Housing Finance Agency to advance the President's mission of restoring the dream of homeownership for all Americans.' Keeping Fannie and Freddie in conservatorship, according to one shareholder, amounts to attaching 'training wheels' as the government figures out how to monetize its stake. 'I think Pulte has probably confused people more than anything with his message,' said Tim Pagliara, a shareholder and author of the book 'Another Big Lie: How the Government Stole Billions from the American Dream of Home Ownership and Got Caught!' 'So the idea, for example, of allowing these entities to operate in conservatorship is a strategy that they probably talked about with the investment bankers on their primary concern, which is mortgage rates going up,' he added. 'It's like putting training wheels on a bike.' The administration's pronouncements have perplexed housing finance analysts who are unsure of what a scheme to take the companies public while keeping them in conservatorship would look like — or whether there would be sufficient investor appetite to make it worthwhile. JPMorgan strategists wrote in a note that they were 'flummoxed' by the comments. 'It's just hard to imagine why anybody would think there would be strong investor interest in that kind of model, unless the government were to convey they were going to run the [government-sponsored enterprises] in a way that's investor-friendly, and I think we're a long way off from that,' Parrott said. David Dworkin, president and CEO of the National Housing Conference, a stakeholders' group, agreed. 'The most important element of a successful stock sale is a board that is truly independent and has a fiduciary responsibility to shareholders,' he said. 'Under conservatorship, that is actually not even allowed. So, without an independent board with a fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders, there is no value to the stock.' Still, he said, 'there are far too many comments coming from major players, including the president of the United States, to avoid the conclusion that major action on conservatorship could be in the very near future.' Another housing finance analyst, granted anonymity to frankly discuss the nascent plans, also expressed skepticism about the idea that investors would bite on purchasing shares in conservatorship, with the federal government still owning the vast majority of the asset. 'The direction of that control can change at the next election,' the analyst said. 'Each administration has already demonstrated they want to use Fannie and Freddie in different ways, so what are you investing in?' For the most part, Republican lawmakers are keeping their powder dry as they wait for additional details about the administration's plans. '[Senate Banking Committee] Chairman [Tim] Scott looks forward to hearing more' from Trump and Pulte on their plans for Fannie and Freddie, spokesperson Ben Watson said. Asked if conservatorship should end, Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), a member of the Banking subcommittee with oversight of Fannie and Freddie, said, 'I don't know.' 'We're going to wait until the first quarter of 2026 to have that conversation,' said Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.), chair of the Financial Services housing subcommittee. 'Releasing them from conservatorship, that's one thing, but most of the folks I talked to still want the federal government on the hook.' The first Trump administration worked to build capital at the companies to prepare them for the end of conservatorship, an effort led by then-Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and former Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria. Calabria has returned for Trump 2.0, now in a position with the White House Office of Management and Budget. Two key Treasury officials — Jonathan McKernan and Luke Pettit — also hail from the school of thought that Fannie and Freddie should be released from conservatorship. 'The Treasury Department has not really engaged on this yet — so it does not appear to me that the administration is very far into the analysis of options phase,' Parrott said. 'Until the Treasury Department really engages in any of this meaningfully, it's hard to know where all this lands.'
