The future path of Gulf-Iranian relations

Arab News

2 days ago

https://arab.news/vbh7z
Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Cooperation Council countries are pursuing a foreign policy that is focused on de-escalation across the Middle East, urging an end to current conflicts and preventing future ones. They believe that stability cannot be achieved through violence, but rather only through honest, direct dialogue and the establishment of lasting, solid political agreements.
Each Gulf state upholds its sovereignty, distinct diplomatic stance and individual approach to regional affairs. Yet a strong sense of shared destiny unites them, reinforced by the recent conflict between Israel and Iran. This underscored the urgent need for the GCC to bolster its collective political engagement, security cooperation and economic integration.
The Iranian missile strikes against Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar in June were far from a fleeting military incident. They were a critical turning point that directly affects the region's security dynamics and raises a pressing question: Can Iran be trusted as a regional partner or will it continue to pose a persistent threat?
The GCC states, led by Saudi Arabia, have long pursued an approach toward Tehran that is rooted in a policy of 'positive balance,' rather than confrontational alliances. The Kingdom's Vision 2030, an ambitious roadmap for national transformation, cannot achieve its full potential while wars and instability continue to plague the Middle East.
The Iranian strikes on Al-Udeid prompted a firm response from Saudi Arabia, which condemned the attack as 'a blatant act of aggression against the state of Qatar,' and 'a clear violation of international law and the principles of good neighborliness — unacceptable and unjustifiable under any circumstances.' Riyadh also reaffirmed its 'full solidarity and unwavering support for Qatar,' pledging to 'mobilize all available resources to back any measures Qatar chooses to take in response.'
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke directly with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, reaffirming that 'the Kingdom has fully mobilized its capabilities to stand by our brothers in Qatar, supporting all efforts to protect their security and preserve their sovereignty.'
Saudi Arabia's firm stance in support of Qatar underscored a core Gulf principle: external threats are viewed as challenges to the collective security of all GCC member states, not just to one nation. This principle was clearly demonstrated during the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait on Aug. 2, 1990, when all Arab Gulf states stood united against the regime of the late President Saddam Hussein, collaborating politically and militarily with the US and allied forces to achieve Kuwait's liberation.
Regarding the targeting of Al-Udeid airbase, the Gulf's response, particularly from Saudi Arabia, was deliberate and composed, not driven by emotion. Riyadh chose not to break ties with Tehran or escalate tensions, but instead adopted a firm, cautious stance.
The ongoing diplomatic engagement in the Gulf offers Iran a critical opportunity to rebuild trust.
Hassan Al-Mustafa
This approach reflects what can be described as 'Saudi rationality,' a strategic approach rooted not in reactive emotion, but in calculated, nationally driven interests. Deliberation, however, should not be mistaken for inaction. The Al-Udeid incident underscored the limits of trust that can be placed in Iran. The period following the strike will not mirror what came before, yet this shift does not imply a breakdown in relations. Rather, the Gulf perspective has grown more pragmatic: dialogue with Iran remains on the table, but its promises will no longer be taken at face value without a thorough assessment of its true intentions.
A key factor in de-escalating the situation was a phone call made by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Sheikh Tamim 48 hours after the attack. According to the Amiri Diwan, Pezeshkian conveyed his 'regret to his highness the emir and to the brotherly Qatari people for the damage caused by the attack,' clarifying that neither Qatar nor its people were the intended target. He emphasized that the strike did not constitute a threat to the state of Qatar, reaffirming that 'Qatar will remain a neighboring, Muslim and sisterly nation.' He also expressed his hope that 'relations between the two countries would continue to be founded on mutual respect for sovereignty and the principles of good neighborliness.'
This Iranian gesture helped sustain the cautious Gulf engagement with Tehran. On July 8, Saudi Arabia hosted Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and an accompanying delegation. During the visit, Araghchi met with the crown prince and held separate discussions with Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman and Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan.
During their meeting, the crown prince expressed 'Saudi Arabia's hope that the ceasefire agreement would lay the groundwork for greater security and stability across the region.' He reaffirmed 'the Kingdom's commitment to resolving conflicts through dialogue and diplomatic means.' In turn, the Iranian foreign minister 'thanked the Kingdom for its condemnation of Israeli aggression' and expressed his appreciation for 'the crown prince's ongoing efforts to foster regional peace and stability.'
The ongoing diplomatic engagement in the Gulf offers Iran a critical opportunity to rebuild trust, an essential pillar for fostering durable relations with its Arab neighbors.
Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states remain focused on reinforcing regional stability and preventing a new confrontation between Tel Aviv and Tehran. For progress to be sustained, Iran must move beyond diplomatic rhetoric and demonstrate genuine, verifiable cooperation, first with Gulf capitals and then with the broader international community and UN institutions.
If this approach succeeds, it could usher in a new era of positive balance, paving the way for meaningful economic, security and political collaboration. However, if tensions resurface or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its allied militias revert to hostile rhetoric and actions, the likely trajectory will be one of reinforced containment and strengthened joint defense among Gulf states, further isolating Tehran.
• Hassan Al-Mustafa is a Saudi writer and researcher interested in Islamic movements, the development of religious discourse and the relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Iran. X: @Halmustafa