Will Reform win Scotland's Hamilton by-election? Our experts make their predictions

Telegraph

a day ago

It will be close, but this smells like an SNP victory
The major problem for Unionist parties in Scottish by-elections is that the SNP invariably hoovers up something like 30 per cent of the popular vote. Infuriatingly for their opponents this tends to be the case no matter how poor its record in government has been. And remember the SNP has been the Scottish Government since 2007 since when it has become better known for its foul-ups – especially on issues like the NHS and education – than for successes.
With normally such a head start for the Nats, Labour, Tories, Lib Dems – and this time Reform UK – are left to share out the remainder amongst themselves, meaning that all too often the SNP gets the prize. And last time it helped them to comfortably win this seat, Hamilton, Stonehouse and Larkhall, with nearly 50 per cent of the vote.
This time the contest has been unique in that policies, per se, have played little part in it. Nigel Farage and Reform have basically confined themselves to insisting that they're not Labour, Tory, Lib Dem or SNP but that they will provide 'Change'. And that's it.
For their part all the others have concentrated on attacking Nigel Farage for being, well, Nigel Farage, even if he's not his party's candidate here. They've sought to conjure up an image of Reform's leader as an extreme Right-wing, racist bogey man – a character assassination that he constantly denies but which he shrugs off while accepting that it gets him talked about.
But as Labour showed in last year's general election 'Change' works and now seems to be helping Reform. However, there are two wars being fought in this by-election – a ground war, on the doorsteps with continuous canvassing as well as an air war in the mass media.
In spite of numerous defections from other parties, as the new boys on the block, Reform doesn't have anything like the foot soldiers required to fight an effective ground war. But Mr Farage's stardom – or notoriety if you prefer – means Reform is getting masses of broadcast, online and newspaper coverage in the air war.
But while the SNP, Labour and Tories know who their traditional supporters are it is pretty much a shot in the dark for Reform. They think they're doing well but can't be sure.
The SNP is a formidable election-fighting machine and is defending a huge majority won last time by a popular minister whose death caused this by-election, even if its present candidate lost in her last two contests. Meanwhile Labour reckon their strength on the doorsteps has been helped by having a popular local candidate, even if he's been shielded from too much media attention.
The result may well be very close but it looks and smells like an SNP victory. Labour is desperate to be second and is praying that it gets its vote out. But failing to be runners-up, almost certainly behind Reform, will count as a major humiliation for Sir Keir Starmer and Scottish leader Anas Sarwar.
Scots won't publicly admit supporting Farage – but they may vote Reform anyway
A Labour Party friend forwarded me an email from his party today, which appealed for help in the last 24 hours of campaigning in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Scottish parliamentary by-election.
The only problem with the message is that it features a photo of a large billboard being used by Labour in the final days of the campaign. The first word on that billboard? Reform. 'REFORM CAN'T WIN', it reads. 'THE SNP DON'T DESERVE TO'. For an invitation to voters to cast a positive vote for Labour, you need to wait for the third sentence in the lower half of the advert.
In advance of the actual result, we can be sure of only two things: that Labour has thrown every resource it possibly can at this campaign. And also that it isn't going to win.
In fact it is more likely to come third, behind the SNP and Reform. This should not be the case: Labour's publicity is right. Having governed Scotland for 18 years, and having governed badly, the SNP certainly doesn't deserve a victory. Nevertheless, having skilfully led his party out of the choppy waters made more hazardous by his two predecessors, first minister John Swinney could reap the benefits of being a distinct improvement on both Humza Yousaf and Nicola Sturgeon. The bar is set dreadfully low in Scottish politics.
But will his party win in a seat that has been SNP since 2011? Bookies and commentators reckon this is the most likely outcome, narrowly ahead of Reform, which has become an unlikely challenger.
In the 1990s, polling organisations blamed 'shy Tory voters' for the inaccuracy of polls that skewed in Labour's favour. Given the public hostility to all things Tory, at least some voters chose to deny the party in public while quietly voting for them in the privacy of the polling booth. It would not be unreasonable to suggest that the same phenomenon might work in Reform's favour. In Left-wing, right-on, progressive Scotland, no one would dare admit publicly to supporting Nigel Farage's party. But they might vote for them anyway, once they've been issued with their ballot paper and the thin curtain has safely closed behind them.
That's what Farage is counting on, in the hope that Reform's disadvantage over the other two parties in terms of organisational experience will be outweighed by disgruntled Scots wishing a plague on both Labour's and the SNP's houses. In private, of course. And it could conceivably happen.
If Reform pulls it off, this will be the most momentous Scottish by-election since 1967
In British politics Hamilton will always be remembered for the 1967 by-election when Winnie Ewing won the Westminster seat. Scotland's Labour-Tory duopoly was torn asunder giving the SNP elected representatives at Westminster and Holyrood ever since.
Although Labour won the Commons constituency in July 2024 the Scottish Parliament seat was held by the SNP's Christina McKelvie until her untimely death in March this year.
A year ago Labour could have been expected to win a by-election, but their candidate, Davy Russell, has been heavily chaperoned by his minders, nervous about him defending Keir Starmer's highly unpopular policies. Declining to take part in Monday's televised debate, only the SNP and Reform candidates appeared live.
The SNP's Katy Loudon has already been branded a serial loser of two previous elections, while Reform UK's Ross Lambie was a Tory councillor until March. Voters are said to be 'scunnered' with the mainstream parties, causing expectations of Lambie coming second. That would send a shockwave through the Holyrood establishment.
Yet such has been the welcoming response for Reform on the door steps a victory cannot be ruled out. Nigel Farage said he was hopeful of coming second but winning was 'improbable' – a perfect example of expectation management. The Tories will be pleased to save their deposit.
In 1967 Scots singer Lulu was top of the charts with To Sir with love. If the punters of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse send Farage's man to Holyrood it could be the beginning of a Scottish love affair causing Farage to dance a Highland jig.