Latest news with #ScottishElections
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Swinney says SNP majority at Holyrood could make second referendum a ‘reality'
John Swinney has vowed to give 'absolutely every fibre of my being' to helping the SNP win a majority of seats in next May's Scottish elections – insisting that is necessary for a second vote on independence to be held. He dismissed as 'laughable' claims from critics that this strategy for getting a second referendum is 'punting' independence 'into the long grass'. However, while opinion polls have the SNP in the lead in the run-up to the crucial Holyrood vote, none has indicated Mr Swinney's party could win an overall majority. The Scottish Parliament's proportional representation system makes it harder for any single party to win more than half of the seats, with only former SNP leader Alex Salmond having achieved this in 2011. That victory led to the 2014 independence referendum, with Mr Swinney now relying on this 'precedent' as he seeks to secure a second vote on Scotland's place in the UK. His comments came as he indicated independence supporters are 'frustrated' that despite the 2016 and 2021 Holyrood elections both returning majorities of MSPs supporting independence, successive Westminster governments have refused to allow a second ballot to be held. Mr Swinney, speaking at an event organised by think tank Enlighten in Edinburgh on Tuesday, also noted that while Scots voted to stay in the UK in 2014 there were now 'various polls' with a majority for independence. Pressed on his strategy of using a Holyrood majority to achieve another referendum, the Scottish First Minister insisted that the idea this was 'punting it into the long grass is laughable for me'. Instead, he insisted independence as an 'urgent necessity', claiming decisions by the Labour Government at Westminster will make it harder for him to achieve his 'mission' of eradicating child poverty. However, he insisted he has 'got to be realistic' about how a second referendum could be brought about. Mr Swinney said: 'An independent Scotland will only come about if it carries domestic and international legitimacy, ie the rules of how it becomes independent are accepted by all parties.' He stressed this had been the case in 2014, as he added: 'If we want to advance on this issue there has got to be a means of breaking the log jam that we are currently in. 'Two successive elections, the majority of members of the Scottish Parliament supporting holding a referendum on independence and the Westminster government just folds its arms and says 'no'.' The First Minister noted that 'in 2011, when the SNP won a majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament, that led to a referendum in 2014'. And he added: 'If we want independence to happen we have got to rely on that precedent.' He rejected suggestions from Enlighten director Chris Deerin that returning a majority of SNP MSPs to Holyrood next May was a 'bold ambition', as he called on independence supporters to make the issue a 'priority' in that election. 'Then we can turn this into reality,' Mr Swinney said. Polls currently indicate the SNP could still be the largest party at Holyrood after the next election, but have so far failed to show Mr Swinney's party winning more than half the 129 seats. However, Mr Swinney recalled that in the run-up to 2011 election, his party was 'miles behind' in the opinion polls but 'then we won a majority four months later'. And he said: 'Today, nine months out from the election, I am ahead in the opinion polls. 'When I took over as SNP leader we were behind. I have brought the SNP back into the lead, a commanding lead in the opinion polls, and on the opinion polls today, we still would be the largest party by a country mile in the Scottish Parliament.' However he insisted: 'That's not good enough for me. 'I have set out what we have got to do to clear a pathway to win Scottish independence and I am going to give absolutely every fibre of my being from now until May 7 next year to make sure it happens.'
The Independent
7 hours ago
- Politics
- The Independent
Swinney says SNP majority at Holyrood could make second referendum a ‘reality'
John Swinney has vowed to give 'absolutely every fibre of my being' to helping the SNP win a majority of seats in next May's Scottish elections – insisting that is necessary for a second vote on independence to be held. He dismissed as 'laughable' claims from critics that this strategy for getting a second referendum is 'punting' independence 'into the long grass'. However, while opinion polls have the SNP in the lead in the run-up to the crucial Holyrood vote, none has indicated Mr Swinney's party could win an overall majority. The Scottish Parliament's proportional representation system makes it harder for any single party to win more than half of the seats, with only former SNP leader Alex Salmond having achieved this in 2011. That victory led to the 2014 independence referendum, with Mr Swinney now relying on this 'precedent' as he seeks to secure a second vote on Scotland's place in the UK. His comments came as he indicated independence supporters are 'frustrated' that despite the 2016 and 2021 Holyrood elections both returning majorities of MSPs supporting independence, successive Westminster governments have refused to allow a second ballot to be held. Mr Swinney, speaking at an event organised by think tank Enlighten in Edinburgh on Tuesday, also noted that while Scots voted to stay in the UK in 2014 there were now 'various polls' with a majority for independence. Pressed on his strategy of using a Holyrood majority to achieve another referendum, the Scottish First Minister insisted that the idea this was 'punting it into the long grass is laughable for me'. Instead, he insisted independence as an 'urgent necessity', claiming decisions by the Labour Government at Westminster will make it harder for him to achieve his 'mission' of eradicating child poverty. However, he insisted he has 'got to be realistic' about how a second referendum could be brought about. Mr Swinney said: 'An independent Scotland will only come about if it carries domestic and international legitimacy, ie the rules of how it becomes independent are accepted by all parties.' He stressed this had been the case in 2014, as he added: 'If we want to advance on this issue there has got to be a means of breaking the log jam that we are currently in. 'Two successive elections, the majority of members of the Scottish Parliament supporting holding a referendum on independence and the Westminster government just folds its arms and says 'no'.' The First Minister noted that 'in 2011, when the SNP won a majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament, that led to a referendum in 2014'. And he added: 'If we want independence to happen we have got to rely on that precedent.' He rejected suggestions from Enlighten director Chris Deerin that returning a majority of SNP MSPs to Holyrood next May was a 'bold ambition', as he called on independence supporters to make the issue a 'priority' in that election. 'Then we can turn this into reality,' Mr Swinney said. Polls currently indicate the SNP could still be the largest party at Holyrood after the next election, but have so far failed to show Mr Swinney's party winning more than half the 129 seats. However, Mr Swinney recalled that in the run-up to 2011 election, his party was 'miles behind' in the opinion polls but 'then we won a majority four months later'. And he said: 'Today, nine months out from the election, I am ahead in the opinion polls. 'When I took over as SNP leader we were behind. I have brought the SNP back into the lead, a commanding lead in the opinion polls, and on the opinion polls today, we still would be the largest party by a country mile in the Scottish Parliament.' However he insisted: 'That's not good enough for me. 'I have set out what we have got to do to clear a pathway to win Scottish independence and I am going to give absolutely every fibre of my being from now until May 7 next year to make sure it happens.'
The Guardian
06-06-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Don't think Nigel Farage will kill off the Tories? Just look at Reform UK's surge in Scotland
If you were doubting that Nigel Farage had a serious chance of heading a hard-right British government in 2029, the people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse just poured a bucket of particularly icy water over your head. Though Labour won the Scottish parliamentary byelection, defying predictions it would be beaten into third place, Reform UK chalked up more than a quarter of the vote – trailing the victors by an unsubstantial 1,500 voters. This tells a devastating story. Nigel Farage's outfit seriously outperformed the level of support indicated by Scottish polling: the last four surveys had Reform on between 12% and 19%, yet it secured 26% of the vote after standing here for the first time. This suggests it is mobilising previous non-voters whom pollsters are not picking up. The latest UK-wide YouGov poll, which asked people how they would vote if there were a general election tomorrow, put Reform in first place, eight points ahead of Labour. Imagine if that polling in fact underestimates their reach. There is, however, an important caveat. The multimillionaire businessman Zia Yusuf did an impressive job as Reform's chair in professionalising its operations: his resignation speaks to a perennial threat of internal chaos. Like Ukip, Reform may be hobbled by its excessive dependence on its frontman. The SNP, meanwhile, has ruled Holyrood for nearly two decades in an age in which most incumbents are clobbered. The party has lost its best asset, Nicola Sturgeon. Even so, it did not expect to lose 17 points in this byelection. Its activists are divided on whether this loss is down to the party soft-pedalling on the independence cause, or failing to address voters' bread-and-butter concerns. It seems almost certain that it suffered the opposite phenomenon to Reform: its demotivated supporters stayed at home. The byelection offered up yet more striking evidence that the Tories are being replaced as the standard bearers of the right, as they bagged a paltry 6% of the vote. This is the end stage of a process kickstarted by David Cameron in 2010: try to placate the right of his own party by throwing them endless red meat, making them fatter and hungrier. It's the same phenomenon that is unfolding across the west: the old centre-right is dying, and being replaced by a radical right that is increasingly contemptuous of democratic norms. Given Reform's racist claim that the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, would 'prioritise the Pakistani community', its defeat is hardly reassuring, as it still finds popular support among hardcore Scottish unionists. As the pre-eminent psephologist John Curtice notes, Labour was in fact down on its already weak 2021 performance in this seat, triumphing only because of the fragmentation of the electorate. The result shows Labour is not on course to retake the seat of Scottish power, he concludes. The big message, he says, is that if Farageism is making inroads even in Scotland, its strength has been underestimated. What next? Starmer's foot soldiers have a strategy. Having achieved unparalleled unpopularity by attacking state provision for disabled people and elderly people, they are opting for a 'squeeze' message. They believe Farage replacing the Tories is beneficial, because he has a lower ceiling of support than the traditional party of the right. Our electoral system will force voters to make a binary choice between a Labour government they strongly dislike, and a Farage premiership most fear. The choice is between two bad options – and they're hoping that voters will pick the least worse. Cast your mind back to the decision of Hillary Clinton's team to intentionally promote Donald Trump as the Republican standard-bearer for much the same reason. That didn't go well. Labour must surely understand how Farage's capacity to enthuse non-voters raises the ceiling to an unpredictable height. Starmer's team clearly looks to Canada, where an incumbent liberal government was on course for electoral meltdown, until progressives abandoned the leftwing New Democrats to prevent the hard-right Conservatives triumphing. Yet there are key differences. One is the small factor of the US president openly planning to annex their country. Another is that although Justin Trudeau's administration may have been deeply disappointing from a progressive perspective, it did not ceaselessly alienate its natural supporters, as Labour has done, including by adopting rhetoric on immigration associated with the far right. Labour won about two-thirds of the seats in the general election with only one-third of the overall vote share. Surely it recognises that Reform could do the same. This ability is only entrenched by our first past the post electoral system, which even the former Conservative minister Tobias Ellwood has described as 'dated and unrepresentative'. Faced with a choice between lesser evils, the strategy for progressives ought to be clear: cement a pact between the Green party and other leftwing candidates, focus on 50 or so seats, and throw every resource at them. In a resulting hung parliament, they could force an end to this antiquated electoral system. But the central belt of Scotland just underlined an important lesson. The west is in crisis: the rise of the radical right is both a symptom and an accelerant, and nowhere is immune. Owen Jones is a Guardian columnist
Telegraph
06-06-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
Reform didn't win – but it's on the cusp of a breakthrough in Scotland
A month ago, Reform UK's triumph in the English local elections all but killed off the two-party system in Westminster. On Thursday night, it did the same in Holyrood. 'There's a new party in Scotland,' declared Ross Lambie, Reform's candidate in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election. He may not have won, but he did send the strongest signal. Though Labour prised the constituency from the SNP – only the third time a seat has changed hands in the admittedly brief history of Scottish parliamentary by-elections – it was far from a resounding victory. Davy Russell's margin of just 602 votes puts him in the second-most precarious position of all current MSPs, with just 11 months to go until a guaranteed re-election battle. From a standing start six weeks ago, Reform's Mr Lambie took 26.1 per cent of the vote, while all other major parties – including Labour – suffered a fall in their share. Reform now looks on course to pick up double-digit seats in next year's Scottish Parliament elections, and could pose a real threat in the 2029 general election. The Tories, meanwhile, fell to a lowly fourth place, with just 6 per cent. Having received well over four times as many votes, Reform now reigns supreme on the Right in Scotland as Labour and the SNP, each blighted by being in power, tussle for the Left. The SNP's shock 16.8 point crash in vote share (despite a number of polls favouring the party for the win) was a disaster for John Swinney, the First Minister. His first electoral contest as leader resulted in the worst-ever by-election swing against the SNP and the second-worst for any party since devolution in 1999. Reform ended up just 869 votes behind, putting the top three parties within less than 1,500 votes of each other. 'Scotland is now a three-way marginal,' declared Richard Tice, Reform's deputy leader, leaving many seats vulnerable to a Reform insurgency. Less than half of constituencies in 2021 were won with a majority of the vote. But only 73 of the Scottish Parliament's 129 seats are awarded in this way. The combination of first past the post in individual constituencies with regionally elected party list members, according to the proportion of votes received, could actually be even more of a boon to Reform. Few politicians have been hampered by Westminster's electoral system as much as Nigel Farage. Even his successful 2024 general election campaign proved the most distorted in history, his party receiving 14.3 per cent of the vote yet just 0.8 per cent of the seats. Holyrood tends to produce far less skewed results. Looking at the percentage of 'unearned' seats in elections since devolution shows – calculated by adding up the difference between each party's vote share and their seat share and dividing by two (what psephologists call a Loosemore-Hanby index) – they tend to in fact be roughly twice as faithful to the will of the people. This bodes well for Reform in the Scottish Parliament elections next May. Given the party's current overall polling average of around 16 per cent, it could be on course for between 12 and 20 seats. More sophisticated analysis from Ballot Box Scotland suggests that, as of May 30, Reform could pick up 15 seats. None of these, however, represents an outright constituency win, but rather the allocation based on a 15.4 per cent share of the regional vote. Reform's predicted haul matches that of the Tories and is only a few behind Labour, on 21. Reflecting on the by-election result, Prof Sir John Curtice, a polling expert, said the Conservatives were 'being eaten for lunch, breakfast and dinner' by Reform. While the SNP would win the most seats on 59, that falls from the 64 in 2021 and slips further from the 65 required for a majority, giving challengers' voices even more prominence. While Scots often vote differently between general elections and their parliamentary elections, their distaste for the Labour Government's policies speaks volumes. Labour capitalised on the SNP's financing scandal to take 35.3 per cent of the vote last July – a greater share than its 34.4 in England. While the SNP salvaged 30 per cent in second, Reform came fifth with just 7 per cent, less than half its 15.3 per cent take south of the border. This underlies the fact that Scotland is not naturally fertile ground for Mr Farage – 62 per cent of Scots voted Remain in 2016's Brexit referendum, more than any other UK region. The party neither won nor came second in any of Scotland's 57 Westminster constituencies. Its highest vote share was Aberdeenshire North and Moray East (14.6 per cent), but that was still only enough to put it third after the SNP (35.2 per cent) and the Conservatives (32.8 per cent). But attitudes are shifting. Immigration was the issue Scottish adults felt Labour was handling the least well, with 74 per cent of respondents answering 'badly' to just 13 per cent 'well' when polled on June 1. In YouGov's latest temperature take of politicians' net favourability – the share of Scots viewing them positively minus those with a negative impression – Mr Farage came in at -44. That may sound dire, but it makes him more popular than Sir Keir Starmer (-52) and Kemi Badenoch (-50). That's a 10-point improvement since last July for the Reform leader, compared to a 38-point decline for the Prime Minister. More recent MRP polling – multilevel regression and post-stratification polls that combine a large survey sample with local demographic and historic support – hints that this could yield political results. According to The Telegraph's election predictor, Labour's seat tally in Scotland would plummet from 37 to three, leaving it with just Glasgow North East, Midlothian and Edinburgh South. While Reform still falls short of breaking through in any single seat, its overall vote share increases to 12.8 per cent. It now comes second in six seats and third in 22, with the average margin to the victor shrinking from 36.2 points behind to 24.9. The Telegraph's poll tracker shows that Reform has soared over the past two months. The party overtook Labour for second place at the start of April, surging from 16.7 per cent to 23.9 per cent as of the start of June. The Tories, meanwhile, having won 12.7 per cent of the Scottish vote last summer, are languishing on 8.2 per cent of voting intention in fifth place. With the party effectively 'disappearing down a plughole', Reform has seized the reins of the UK Right by taking the lead in the nation most historically antipathetic to its values.
BreakingNews.ie
06-06-2025
- Politics
- BreakingNews.ie
Scots ‘voted for change', says Starmer after Labour's surprise by-election win
British prime minister Keir Starmer has said people in Scotland have 'voted for change' following his party's shock win in a by-election. Mr Starmer congratulated Labour's Davy Russell as the new member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) for Hamilton and looked ahead to next year's Scottish Parliament election, saying it is a chance to 'turbo-charge delivery'. Advertisement Mr Russell took the seat in an area southeast of Glasgow vacated by the death of Scottish government minister and SNP MSP Christina McKelvie. Posting on social media on Friday morning, Mr Starmer said: 'People in Scotland have once again voted for change. 'Next year there is a chance to turbo-charge delivery by putting Labour in power on both sides of the border. I look forward to working with you.' Labour's candidate, who is the deputy lord lieutenant of Lanarkshire, beat the SNP's Katy Loudon – who fell to her third defeat since 2023. Advertisement The win comes against the backdrop of national polls which place Scottish Labour in third place behind the SNP and Reform UK – and will undoubtedly give a boost to Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar's bid to become first minister in next year's election. Mr Sarwar told BBC Radio Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme he is confident Labour can win that contest. When asked if his party can defeat the SNP, which has been in power in Scotland since 2007, Mr Sarwar declared: 'Absolutely. 'I believed it before this by-election and I continue to believe it now. Advertisement 'Next year the choice is simple – a third decade of the SNP with John Swinney as first minister or a new direction for Scotland with me as first minister. 'That is the choice facing the people of Scotland, that is the campaign over the next year, and that is a campaign I am confident we can win. 'I think what the people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse did yesterday was lead the way to that change of government next year and a Scottish Labour government next year.' He also said he will 'continue to challenge the poison of Reform', making clear he is 'talking about the people who lead Reform' and not those who 'may be tempted' to vote for them. Advertisement Mach of the Hamilton campaign had been dominated by a Reform UK advert – branded 'racist' by Labour and others – which had alleged Mr Sarwar would 'prioritise' the Pakistani community. A surge in support for Nigel Farage's party saw it come in third place in Hamilton, just 800 votes behind the SNP – although there had been speculation Reform could come second or possibly even win the seat. Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice insisted the party is 'delighted' with the result. Richard Tice said he was delighted with Reform UK's result (Jane Barlow/PA) Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today programme, he said: 'It's truly remarkable. Advertisement 'We've come from nowhere to being in a three-way marginal, and we're within 750 votes of winning that by-election and just a few hundred votes of defeating the SNP, so it's an incredible result.' At the election count earlier, Mr Tice told the PA news agency he was 'thrilled to bits' with the result. When the votes were counted, Mr Russell polled 8,559, Ms Loudon took 7,957 votes, and Reform's Ross Lambie secured 7,088. Speaking to PA after the declaration, Mr Sarwar said: 'I think people need to change the script, because we've proven the pollsters wrong. 'We've proven the commentators wrong, we've proven the bookies wrong. 'We've proven John Swinney wrong and so many others wrong too.' In the final days of the campaign, the Scottish First Minister had said it was a 'two-horse race' between the SNP and Reform, and Mr Sarwar asked what it says about a government that has been in power for 18 years when 'all it has to offer in a campaign is vote SNP to stop Farage'. Mr Russell had faced criticism for his perceived lack of media appearances, but Mr Sarwar said such arguments were borne of 'an element of classism and elitism'. Davy Russell took the win on Thursday (Jane Barlow/PA) Speaking from the stage after his win, Mr Russell said: 'Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse has voted tonight to take a new direction with Scottish Labour. 'Like the people here in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, and right across Scotland, we all feel we have been let down by the SNP.' The newly-minted MSP also hit out at Reform, saying the win 'sent a message to Farage and his mob tonight – the poison of Reform isn't us, it isn't Scotland and we don't want your division here'. World Man charged over vandalism at Trump golf course in... Read More Mr Swinney said Ms Loudon had 'fought a superb SNP campaign' and that he was 'clearly disappointed' his party was unable to win. 'Labour won by an absolute landslide in this area less than a year ago – we came much closer tonight, but the people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse have made clear that we still have work to do,' he added. 'Over the next few days, we will take time to consider the result fully.'
