
Exclusive: Kazakhstan's oil output rises 2% in May in defiance of OPEC+
MOSCOW, May 20 (Reuters) - Kazakhstan's oil production has risen by 2% in May, an industry source said on Tuesday, an increase that defies pressure from OPEC+ on the Central Asian country to reduce its output.
Kazakhstan has repeatedly breached its OPEC+ production quotas, citing the difficulty of telling Western oil majors, such as Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab and ExxonMobil (XOM.N), opens new tab, to curtail their plans.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, has decided to speed up output increases, in part to punish members not complying with curbs by adding to downward pressures on international oil prices, OPEC+ sources have said.
Kazakhstan's oil production fell 3% in April, although it still exceeded its OPEC+ quota.
The country's energy ministry did not respond to a request to comment on production figures for May.
It said separately in emailed comments that production from the country's largest Tengiz field had reached its planned level, meaning the country's production would not increase further this year.
"Kazakhstan is taking all measures to comply with OPEC+ obligations and compensate for excess production," the emailed comments said further.
According to the industry source, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation, Kazakhstan's crude oil production, excluding gas condensate, averaged 1.86 million barrels per day on May 1-19, including 932,000 bpd at Tengiz.
This was up from 1.82 million bpd in April, when Kazakhstan reduced output from 1.88 million bpd in March.
Under the latest OPEC+ agreement, Kazakhstan's OPEC+ quota for May rose to 1.486 million bpd from 1.473 million bpd in April.
The country's energy ministry has repeatedly said it was committed to the OPEC+ agreement.
It has said it will compensate for overproduction by reducing its cumulative output by 1.3 million bpd by April 2026, while also saying it would prioritise national interests over those of OPEC+ when deciding on production levels.
Western oil majors, including Shell (SHEL.L), opens new tab, TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA), opens new tab and Eni (ENI.MI), opens new tab, as well as ExxonMobil and Chevron, are active in Kazakhstan oil projects.
"We expect Kazakhstan's production to stabilise at around 1.8 million bpd. Officials have highlighted limited flexibility in lowering output, given the field is controlled by international firms," Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank said in a note.

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Telegraph
2 days ago
- Telegraph
‘Look at history': the economic threat if Israel-Iran conflict escalates
The assassination of the head of Iran's armed forces has raised fears of another wave of rising prices. Brent crude oil jumped by as much as 13pc to more than $78 a barrel on Friday morning after Israel killed military chief Mohammad Bagheri and conducted a 'pre-emptive strike' against the regime's nuclear facilities. The jump was the biggest increase since the early days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, vowing that the battle will continue for as long as it takes. 'We can't leave these threats for the next generation. If we don't act now, there won't be a next generation,' Netanyahu said on Friday. Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, is likely to be watching the conflict closely as higher oil prices are felt well beyond the petrol forecourts. Experts warn that if the conflict continues, a fresh wave of tax rises in the autumn are now all but inevitable. Iran is the third-largest oil producer within the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) cartel, behind only Saudi Arabia and Iraq, with output of 3m barrels per day accounting for 3pc of global supply. Callum Macpherson, at Investec, a banking group, notes that concerns about the impact of conflict in the Middle East on oil prices are not new. After all, the assassination of Hezbollah's veteran leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah by Israel last October led to a similar spike in oil prices, before concerns eased back and prices fell again. But Macpherson says things may be different this time. 'The market is concerned by comments from Netanyahu that suggest there could be a more protracted campaign than has been the case before,' he notes, adding that Iran is still a big contributor to global supply. 'If Iranian supply were to be significantly disrupted, that could have a big impact on oil prices.' While this is unlikely on its own, the big concern if the conflict escalates is Tehran's ability to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route in the Middle East. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, warned on Friday that Israel 'should expect severe punishment' for the attacks. Roughly 20pc of global supply is shipped through the narrow strait. Macpherson says if Hormuz was blocked, prices would surge. He added: 'Let's look at history. When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, there were fears over Russian oil supply that sent Brent up to around $140 a barrel. This is an example of an historic precedent of the market's reaction to the potential for a severe supply disruption.' David Oxley, at Capital Economics, says traders remain nervous about what comes next, with any big escalation likely to trigger a surge in prices. ' We're into a world where traders are pricing in the potential for major disruption,' he says. 'And as we've seen in instances like this you could easily get $20, $30, $40 added to the price very quickly.' Macpherson says the implications could be far and wide. 'This doesn't just impact oil markets, but gas markets too,' he says, noting that a significant amount of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar is also shipped through the narrow strait at the edge of the Persian Gulf. Britain buys some of its gas from Qatar, although its purchases of LNG have fallen dramatically from recent highs. 'That feeds through directly into the inflation basket, through the cost of heating,' says Macpherson. 'And if gas prices go up, there is upward pressure on electricity too. If the situation is prolonged, this could feed through to the cost of manufactured goods, wherever they come from in the world leading to broader implications for inflation.' The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that a 10pc rise in oil prices adds 0.4 percentage points to global inflation and drag down growth by 0.15pc. Consumers will start noticing price rises in the coming days and weeks as they fill up their cars. Oxley, at Capital Economics, estimates that every $10 increase in oil adds 7p at the petrol pump, taking money out of people's pockets. There are also implications for the cost of borrowing. While policymakers at the Bank of England tend to look through one-off price spikes, the prospect of higher-for-longer inflation will be hard to ignore. Traders slightly reduced their bets of two more rate cuts this year to 3.75pc as news of the killing of Bagheri broke. But some fear that the impact of higher oil prices could even force Threadneedle Street to reverse course. Gervais Williams, of Premier Miton, an investment manager, told the BBC: 'It is likely that interest rate cuts will be less, or possibly even interest rate rises to come.' He warns that 'a lot of economic uncertainty ... will lead to a government shortfall, unfortunately, versus their spending review recently. I think that will lead to potentially ... additional UK tax rises later this year'. The combination of weak growth and higher borrowing costs is toxic for the public finances. Analysis cited by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) of 20 years of data from 1984 suggests that a 10pc rise in oil price reduces UK output by around 0.5pc, although the UK is now far less reliant on oil and gas than it was in the past as the economy pivots towards services. In 2010, the OBR said a permanent 20pc rise in the real oil price would reduce GDP by around half a percent. Lower growth means less money to fund the spending boost for the NHS that Reeves lauded this week. Higher oil prices also makes it more likely that she will have to maintain fuel duty cuts for another year at a cost of £3bn. She has to fund that by cutting spending or taxing something else. JP Morgan and Capital Economics both believe that higher borrowing costs and a weaker economy will force Reeves to raise taxes by more than £20bn in the autumn. Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Liberum, argues that there may be a silver lining for a Chancellor looking for political cover for another tax raid. 'A sustained rise in oil prices will raise inflation in the second half of the year making it harder for the Bank of England to cut rates,' says French. 'But for the Treasury the challenges are more nuanced. Any hit to growth will make the fiscal challenges more acute, albeit politically it becomes easier to blame external conditions for tough fiscal choices in the autumn.' Of course, there are factors pulling in the opposite direction, including a decision by Opec in March to pump more than 2m barrels of oil back into the market over the next 18 months. Oxley at Capital Economics says this should provide some relief, with faster supply increases in May and June suggesting 'more supply is likely to be forthcoming' in the coming months. However, he warns the outlook remains bleak. 'To the extent to which oil prices remain elevated, this adds to inflationary pressures and headwinds for the economy,' adds Oxley. 'That's the last thing Reeves wants. She was hoping that growth could help the fiscal situation look better. But any volatility or uncertainty will be the opposite of that. 'But at least she is by no means alone. The world depends on oil. So this isn't necessarily just a problem for Rachel Reeves.' That is likely to offer little comfort for a Chancellor already under fire for her political choices, or the households who will bear the brunt of what looks like another inevitable tax raid.


Reuters
2 days ago
- Reuters
OPEC+ would struggle to cover major Iranian oil supply disruption
LONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - Oil market participants have switched to dreading a shortage in fuel from focusing on impending oversupply in just two days this week. After Israel attacked Iran and Tehran pledged to retaliate, oil prices jumped as much as 13% to their highest since January as investors price in an increased probability of a major disruption in Middle East oil supplies. Part of the reason for the rapid spike is that spare capacity among OPEC and allies to pump more oil to offset any disruption is roughly equivalent to Iran's output, according to analysts and OPEC watchers. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are the only OPEC+ members capable of quickly boosting output and could pump around 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) more, analysts and industry sources said. Iran's production stands at around 3.3 million bpd, and it exports over 2 million bpd of oil and fuel. There has been no impact on output so far from Israel's attacks on Iran's oil and gas infrastructure, nor on exports from the region. But fears that Israel may destroy Iranian oil facilities to deprive it of its main source of revenue have driven oil prices higher. The Brent benchmark last traded up nearly 7% at over $74 on Friday. An attack with a significant impact on Iranian output that required other producers to pump more to plug the gap would leave very little spare capacity to deal with other disruptions - which can happen due to war, natural disasters or accidents. And that with a caveat that Iran does not attack its neighbours in retaliation for Israeli strikes. Iran has in the past threatened to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz if it is attacked. The Strait is the exit route from the Middle East Gulf for around 20% of the world's oil supply, including Saudi, UAE, Kuwaiti, Iraqi and Iranian exports. Iran has also previously stated that it would attack other oil suppliers that filled any gap in supplies left due to sanctions or attacks on Iran. "If Iran responds by disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, targeting regional oil infrastructure, or striking U.S. military assets, the market reaction could be much more severe, potentially pushing prices up by $20 per barrel or more," said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad and a former OPEC official. The abrupt change in calculus for oil investors this week comes after months in which output increases from OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, have led to investor concern about future oversupply and a potential price crash. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, has been the driving force behind an acceleration in the group's output increases, in part to punish allies that have pumped more oil than they were supposed to under OPEC+ agreements. The increases have already strained the capacity of some members to produce more, causing them to fall short of their new targets. Even after recent increases, the group still has output curbs in place of about 4.5 million bpd, which were agreed over the past five years to balance supply and demand. But some of that spare oil capacity - the difference between actual output and notional production potential that can be brought online quickly and sustained - exists only on paper. After years of production cuts and reduced oilfield investment following the COVID-19 pandemic, the oilfields and facilities may no longer be able to restart quickly, said analysts and OPEC watchers. Western sanctions on Iran, Russia and Venezuela have also led to decreases in oil investment in those countries. "Following the July hike, most OPEC members, excluding Saudi Arabia, appear to be producing at or near maximum capacity," J.P. Morgan said in a note. Outside of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, spare capacity was negligible, said a senior industry source who works with OPEC+ producers. "Saudi are the only ones with real barrels, the rest is paper," the source said. He asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. Saudi oil output is set to rise to above 9.5 million bpd in July, leaving the kingdom with the ability to raise output by another 2.5 million bpd if it decides to. That capacity has been tested, however, only once in the last decade and only for one month in 2020 when Saudi Arabia and Russia fell out and pumped at will in a fight for market share. Saudi Arabia has also stopped investing in expanding its spare capacity beyond 12 million bpd as the kingdom diverted resources to other projects. Russia, the second largest producer inside OPEC+, claims it can pump above 12 million bpd. JP Morgan estimates, however, that Moscow can only ramp up output by 250,000 bpd to 9.5 million bpd over the next three months and will struggle to raise output further due to sanctions. The UAE says its maximum oil production capacity is 4.85 million bpd, and told OPEC that its production of crude alone in April stood at just over 2.9 million bpd, a figure largely endorsed by OPEC's secondary sources. The International Energy Agency, however, estimated the country's crude production at about 3.3 million bpd in April, and says the UAE has the capacity to raise that by a further 1 million bpd. BNP Paribas sees UAE output even higher at 3.5-4.0 million bpd. "I think spare capacity is significantly lower than what's often quoted," said BNP analyst Aldo Spanjer. The difference in ability to raise production has already created tensions inside OPEC+. Saudi Arabia favours unwinding cuts of about 800,000 bpd by the end of October, sources have told Reuters. At their last meeting, Russia along with Oman and Algeria expressed support for pausing a hike for July.


Reuters
2 days ago
- Reuters
Big disruption to oil supply unlikely after Israel's attack on Iran, say analysts
June 13 (Reuters) - Israel's attack on Iran is unlikely to cause a major disruption to oil supply, analysts at two major banks said, but a worst-case scenario involving blockades in the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $100 per barrel, Goldman Sachs said. Oil prices climbed nearly 9% after Israel launched widescale strikes against Iran targeting nuclear facilities and missile factories, with benchmark Brent crude futures trading near $74.74 per barrel. Goldman Sachs has incorporated a higher geopolitical risk premium into its adjusted summer 2025 oil price outlook, but "we still assume no disruptions to oil supply in the Middle East," the bank said in a note Friday. The bank continues to forecast "that strong supply growth outside U.S. shale will reduce Brent and WTI oil prices to $59/55 in 2025Q4 and $56/52 in 2026." Analysts at Citi also said that supply disruptions should be limited, adding that while heightened geopolitical tensions may linger, energy prices are unlikely to stay elevated for a sustained period. Commerzbank said a further rise in oil prices would depend on supply risks in the event of an escalation, adding that prices are unlikely to fall below $70 for the time being. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais also said the escalation does not justify any immediate changes to supply, as current conditions remain stable. One of the risk factors the market is considering is a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a sea corridor through which around a fifth of the world's total oil consumption travels. While an interruption is unlikely, the strait remains in focus because it may prevent core OPEC+ producers from deploying spare capacity, Goldman Sachs said, adding that in an extreme scenario involving an extended disruption, prices could even top $100 a barrel. JP Morgan had, in a note dated Thursday, said certain worst-case scenarios in the Middle East could send oil to $120–130 a barrel.