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Trump says he will probably extend TikTok deadline again

Trump says he will probably extend TikTok deadline again

CNA4 hours ago

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday (Jun 17) he would likely extend a deadline for China-based ByteDance to divest the US assets of short video app TikTok.
The president said in May he would extend the June 19 deadline after the app helped him with young voters in the 2024 election. His comments to reporters on Air Force One on Tuesday reiterated that sentiment.
"Probably, yeah," Trump said when asked about extending the deadline. "Probably have to get China approval but I think we'll get it. I think President Xi will ultimately approve it."
Trump has already twice granted a reprieve from enforcement of a congressionally mandated ban on TikTok that was initially due to take effect in January.
The law required TikTok to stop operating by Jan 19 unless ByteDance had completed a divestiture of the app's US assets. Trump began his second term as president on Jan 20 and opted not to enforce it. He first extended the deadline to early April, and then again last month to Jun 19.
A deal had been in the works this spring that would spin off TikTok's US operations into a new firm based in the United States and majority-owned and operated by US investors but it was put on hold after China indicated it would not approve it following Trump's announcements of steep tariffs on Chinese goods.
Democratic senators argue that Trump has no legal authority to extend the deadline, and suggest that the deal that had been under consideration would not meet legal requirements.

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US: Stocks drop on growing worries over Middle East
US: Stocks drop on growing worries over Middle East

Business Times

timean hour ago

  • Business Times

US: Stocks drop on growing worries over Middle East

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Commentary: Israel and Iran are both letting illusory ambitions cloud their judgment
Commentary: Israel and Iran are both letting illusory ambitions cloud their judgment

CNA

timean hour ago

  • CNA

Commentary: Israel and Iran are both letting illusory ambitions cloud their judgment

TEL AVIV: The rapidly escalating military conflict between Israel and Iran represents a clash of ambitions. Iran seeks to become a nuclear power, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu longs to be remembered as the Israeli leader who categorically thwarted Iran's nuclear programme, which he views as an existential threat to Israel's survival. Both dreams are as misguided as they are dangerous. Iran's nuclear ambitions have always been driven primarily by the goal of securing the regime's survival, not annihilating Israel, which is far more likely to be destroyed at the end of a long war of attrition than under a mushroom cloud. But Israel cannot afford to treat Iran's threats of nuclear Armageddon as mere bloviating, particularly after Hamas' Oct 7, 2023 terrorist attack, which triggered Israel's long, brutal and ongoing offensive against the Iranian proxy in Gaza. It is not wrong to fear a nuclear Iran. THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS A NUCLEAR DEAL But Netanyahu is a key reason why Iran's nuclear programme is as far along as it is. It was over his objections that the so-called P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States), together with the European Union, negotiated the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, freezing the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme. And it was under pressure from Netanyahu that Donald Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA three years later, spurring Iran to renew its race for the bomb. Israel's audacious attacks on Iran surely will cause further tension between Trump and Netanyahu. Since his return to the White House, Trump has sought a new nuclear agreement with Iran. But this was never going to be an easy process – and not only because Iran has little reason to trust the US. While Trump has no qualms about touting unimpressive (or worse) deals as historic breakthroughs, he surely feels pressure to strike an agreement that is somehow better than the JCPOA that then-US President Barack Obama negotiated a decade ago. Given this, Trump probably views Israel's strikes as useful in limited doses – just enough to increase his leverage in the nuclear negotiations that were already underway. But Netanyahu is fighting for his political survival – and in that battle, no bridge is too far. While Israel initially focused its attacks on nuclear facilities and ballistic missile bases, the conflict has escalated to include targets that could draw the US into the war (such as energy facilities and residential buildings), and it is just getting started. In line with his grand Churchillian ambition – and mirroring the perspective he has brought to his war against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon – Netanyahu is seeking 'total victory' over Iran. This would render a nuclear deal unnecessary. SO DO THE GULF STATES There is just one problem: Israel is incapable of eradicating Iran's nuclear programme. Israel has struck nuclear sites in Natanz and Isfahan, but the damage to the facilities was limited, partly because Israel recognised the need to avoid unleashing radiation across the region. And Israel does not have bombs that can penetrate Iran's Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, which is built inside a mountain. Of course, physical infrastructure is only part of the equation. That is why Israel also targeted scientists, as well as top Revolutionary Guard leaders. But Iran's nuclear programme is an expansive and deeply embedded state project. Killing a few – or even a few dozen – individuals will not paralyse it, let alone eliminate it. In any case, Israel still needs the US. And Trump has no interest in letting Israel drive up oil prices or create a rift between him and America's Gulf allies, which just agreed to funnel trillions of dollars in investment toward the US. Nor can Israel hope for the tacit complicity that the Arab states demonstrated in its war against Hamas and Hezbollah. While these countries have no love for Iran, they have a vested interest in regional stability, especially as they work to diversify their economies. A cornered Iran might even attack the Gulf states directly, hitting their oil installations or disrupting transport lanes in the Persian Gulf. These countries want a nuclear deal, not a regional conflagration. DIPLOMACY WILL REMAIN THE ONLY ANSWER Iran probably wants roughly the same. Though it withdrew from scheduled nuclear talks in Oman, its military response has been confined to Israeli targets. Notably, despite having poured billions of dollars into its regional proxies in recent years, it has refrained from activating them – however diminished they may have been rendered by Israel – against American or Arab targets. But if Iran finds itself with its back against the wall, it can force a reluctant Hezbollah and its Iraqi militias into the fight. If not now, when? It is for occasions like this that the alliances were created in the first place. Iran can also incite attacks against Israel elsewhere, such as the West Bank. Moreover, it will probably withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, opening the way for it to achieve nuclear breakout – a process that would take mere months. Iran now risks falling into the same strategic trap that drained the energies of the Sunni pan-Arabism it revolted against in 1979. By pouring its energy and resources into a war of annihilation against Israel, it would jeopardise its primary objective: regime survival. But Iran is not alone in letting illusory ambitions cloud its judgment. If Israel cannot destroy Iran's nuclear programme, it certainly cannot achieve total victory over Iran's regime. And it is not just Iran: none of Israel's security challenges can be overcome through total victory. No matter how many bombs Netanyahu drops, diplomacy will remain the only answer. Meanwhile, Israel's military hubris is becoming inadmissible to its moderate Arab allies. They wanted Israel as an equal partner in a regional peace, not as a new hegemon.

Commentary: The myth of the suppressed Chinese consumer
Commentary: The myth of the suppressed Chinese consumer

CNA

timean hour ago

  • CNA

Commentary: The myth of the suppressed Chinese consumer

NEW YORK: The great half-truth about China is that its economy consumes too little and invests too much. Over-investment is a real problem, but underconsumption is not. So the mounting calls on the country to 'rebalance' by encouraging more consumer spending are misguided. In the standard telling, China set out to become a manufacturing power in the 1980s and has since suppressed spending by consumers, so it could pour their savings into building ports and factories. But the suppressed consumer is a myth. So far this century, in real terms, private consumer spending in China has grown more than 8 per cent a year, faster than in any other economy – by far. Over the past few years, consumer spending growth has slowed in most countries, due to ageing populations and falling real incomes, and it has fallen in China as well to 5 per cent a year. But that is still higher than in any other major economy except Turkey, where consumption was boosted by a credit boom and refugee inflows. The myth rests in good part on the consumption share of China's gross domestic product, which is just 40 per cent – well below the global norm. But the reason for this anomaly is not that consumption has grown slowly, it is that the other big component of GDP, investment – in infrastructure, real estate, export industries – has grown even faster, averaging 10 per cent a year in this century. That pace, too, is the fastest for any major economy by a significant margin. Corrected for this long-term pattern of over-investment, the consumption share of China's GDP would be around 55 per cent, closer to normal. Consumer spending has also grown much faster in China than in established and newer Asian manufacturing powers, from Japan and South Korea to Indonesia and Malaysia. And when the original miracle economies were reaching the level of development in China today, they too saw sharp slowdowns in consumer spending growth. Yet, somehow, calls to free the Chinese consumer persist alongside mounting evidence of the steady growth in their spending. It's difficult to spot symptoms of repression among the Chinese shoppers in luxury stores from Shanghai to Paris. Drill down into consumer spending, and growth looks to be weakening mainly for services, not goods. But this, too, is partly illusory. If one factors in services provided by China's government at little or no charge, including healthcare and education, consumption rises significantly as a share of GDP. CONSUMPTION VS INVESTMENT Investment, on the other hand, is clearly excessive at 40 per cent of GDP and roughly equal to consumption. In a typical economy, investment is lower than consumption as a share of GDP but more important to the economic cycle. Consumers can't stop spending on necessities in a downturn but businesses can stop investing, at least for a while. This binge has been extreme. Only 10 countries have ever seen investment peak above 40 per cent of GDP, briefly. At that level, so much capital flows to unnecessary projects that the binge tends to reverse quickly, slowing growth. China, uniquely, has managed by debt engineering to keep investment above that for two decades now. Relentless over-investment is fuelling tension with trading partners, since China ends up exporting a lot of its excess production and breeding dysfunction at home. Over time, such binges tend to divert capital into less productive targets such as real estate – which helps explain China's debt-soaked property market today. The outsiders urging China to focus instead on the consumer can cite genuine 'structural' obstacles to their spending. Internal migration controls block many rural Chinese from moving to higher paying urban jobs. Meagre pensions compel many workers to save for retirement rather than spend. The weakening real estate market and other negative 'wealth effects' further discourage spending. China's leaders seem to be heeding some of this advice. An 'action plan' announced in March promised to 'vigorously boost consumption', but so far the action has been light on structural reform and heavy on subsidies for purchases of goods such as home appliances – which have only a passing effect. Consumers rushing to buy rice cookers now won't be buying them in coming years. China's consumer spending has been growing at a world-beating pace and doesn't have much room to accelerate, particularly not when many households are deep in debt. That debt has tripled in the past 15 years to over 60 per cent of GDP, among the highest in emerging markets and close to that in the heavily consumer-driven US economy. The country can't solve the real problems caused by over-investment – from geopolitical tensions to dysfunction at home – by attacking the phantom problem of underconsumption. The crux of the imbalance is that the state has been pushing too much investment for too long in the name of hitting its inflated growth target, now set at 5 per cent. The answer is not to shift the focus of state meddling to boosting consumption. It is to accept that China is weighed down by a shrinking population, declining productivity and a huge debt load. It has a real potential growth rate closer to 2.5 per cent than 5 per cent. And as growth slows to a more realistic pace, consumption will naturally expand as a share of the economy.

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