Canada's shooting at a moving target on defence spending, say military watchers
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'You can have as many drones as you want, if you want to hold terrain, if you want to protect yourself, you're going to need boots on the ground.'
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Carney promised pay raises for those in uniform, but a technical briefing after his speech was short on details about who might get them.
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'Corporal Bloggins needs a lot more than General Smith does,' said defence analyst David Perry, who heads the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.
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'The senior ranks are pretty well compensated. The military has got an affordability cost-of-living issue in the lower ranks.'
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For people who have to move regularly, like many in uniform, 'the total compensation package hasn't kept pace with changing cost pressures,' Perry said.
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'The military is having a difficult time both getting people in and keeping them there once they do join. So, I think depending on how the pay measures are actually structured, it could have quite a significant impact.'
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Canada spent about 1.45 per cent of its GDP on defence last year. If Canada's defence spending does hit two per of GDP by March of 2026, 'by then the target probably will have moved,' Rigby said.
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'So, we've hit two per cent just as the target's likely to go to 3.5 per cent or even right up to five per cent if you throw in extra security capabilities … beyond pure defence.'
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That will leave Canada 'playing serious catch up,' he said.
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NATO leaders are meeting later this month to discuss boosting military spending.
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'Two per cent is not going to cut it in terms of where the rest of the alliance is,' Perry said. 'Pretty clearly there is a discussion about getting to a number much higher than that at the upcoming NATO summit. But given that we have been falling short of this now … 11-year-old target, I do think it's a good first step to help regain some Canadian credibility by putting the money in the window to actually get to the two per cent mark this fiscal year.'
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The other question is whether Canada be able to spend all of the promised money by next March, Rigby said. 'We all know that one of the problems over the last number of years is National Defence can't spend the money quickly enough.'
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The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) returns between hundreds of millions and over a billion dollars annually to central treasury, Perry told National Post earlier this year.
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Carney is creating a defence procurement agency to help in that respect, Rigby said. 'It's not easy setting up new agencies. There are big machinery issues. It costs money. You've got to find the people.'
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