Washington struggles to rein in an emboldened Israel

Mint

7 days ago

TEL AVIV—Israel has emerged from a string of stunning military successes with nearly unchecked power in the Middle East. Now Washington is struggling to adjust.
The Trump administration in recent days has expressed frustration with Israeli actions in Syria and Gaza. President Trump's MAGA supporters, in particular, are growing more critical of his support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who they fear will drag the U.S. deeper into a morass of regional wars.
Israel this month bombed Syria's military headquarters and presidential palace in Damascus, saying it was defending the Druze religious minority group from sectarian violence. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. helped broker an agreement to de-escalate the situation after characterizing the clashes between Israel and Syria as a misunderstanding. The U.S. has backed interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa's efforts to unite the country.
Separately, Israel drew widespread condemnation, including from the Trump administration, after it struck a Catholic church in Gaza, killing three people. Israel said it was an accident.
The White House said this past week that Trump was 'caught off guard" by the bombing in Syria and the strike that hit the Catholic church.
The dissonance in part reflects Israel's new position of power after a series of wars that have left it with no significant regional rivals, according to former officials and analysts.
'The fundamental change that has to be recognized in addressing the future of the Middle East is that Israel is now the strongest power in the Middle East," said Amos Hochstein, who was a senior adviser under President Joe Biden. 'They are the absolute, overwhelming, dominant military hegemon of the Middle East. Like it or hate it, it's fact; there is no real counterweight."
'Ironically, that is not necessarily good news for Israel or the U.S.," Hochstein said, adding that Israel's strength is leading it to overreach, prolonging its wars in Gaza and beyond.
Israel's recent assertiveness has in part been encouraged by the Trump administration. Trump's decision to join Israel's attack on Iran in June—the first time the two countries fought side by side in a war—has reinforced Israel's view that the U.S. supports and is aligned with its goals in the Middle East.
Trump administration officials have said they want the killing in Gaza to stop and for Israel and Hamas to sign a cease-fire deal. But an agreement to halt the fighting has proven elusive. On Thursday, the U.S. special envoy, Steve Witkoff, recalled the U.S. negotiating team from Doha, Qatar, saying Hamas showed a 'lack of desire" to reach a deal.
Israel, meanwhile, has renewed its assault on Hamas in recent months, leading to growing international condemnation over the rising toll on Palestinians.
The tensions over the recent bombings in Syria and Gaza in part stem from mixed U.S. messaging and Israeli misunderstandings, said Dan Shapiro, who served as U.S. ambassador to Israel under President Barack Obama.
The Trump administration has greenlighted Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon and didn't stand in Israel's way when Netanyahu attacked Iran last month. But it flashed a red light on Syria, after initially echoing Israeli concern over Sharaa's Islamist ties.
'When you have this kind of differentiated approach, it requires very clear communication to avoid mixed signals," said Shapiro. 'It seems there have been some gaps there, which can lead to misunderstandings, and then friction between the two governments after the fact."
A senior administration official said the White House coordinates closely with Israel and has considerable influence over Netanyahu because the prime minister knows that 'the United States literally is the sole reason the state of Israel exists."
Trump speaks directly to Netanyahu when issues arise, the official said. After Israeli forces hit the church in Gaza, the president spoke to Netanyahu and urged him to put out a statement explaining what happened, the official said.
The Israeli military on Tuesday said that a mortar accidentally hit the church 'due to an unintentional deviation of munitions" and apologized.
Mike Huckabee, the U.S. ambassador to Israel and supporter of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, denounced Israeli-settler attacks on Taybeh, a Palestinian Christian village. In a rare criticism of Israel, he called the event 'an absolute travesty" and said 'we will certainly insist that those who carry out acts of terror and violence in Taybeh—or anywhere—be found and prosecuted. Not just reprimanded, that's not enough."
The Israeli moves are angering Trump's MAGA supporters. Trump ran on extricating the U.S. from the region and broadly ending American involvement in foreign wars so it had the resources to deter China. So far, they see Netanyahu leading Trump to act against his instincts.
'He is putting his own country on the path to further war and dragging the U.S. into further war," Curt Mills, executive director of the America First-aligned magazine The American Conservative, said on the Trump ally Matt Gaetz's television show this past week. 'When Netanyahu makes a decision, he has the temerity to demand—the chutzpah, frankly—that the U.S. back him, and it's an extremely unstable situation."
Some former U.S. officials and analysts say Trump has more leverage over Netanyahu than did Biden, whose position weakened as his fellow Democrats fought over Israel's military approach in Gaza. Despite MAGA opposition, Trump isn't contending with a revolt from congressional Republicans that threatens to derail his Israel policy. The situation allows him more room to handle the ever-shifting relationship.
Others say the reality of the relationship is far more complex. While the U.S. sells Israel advanced weapons and actively defends it against attacks, no American president would fully cut off the support to send Israel a message. Netanyahu knows this and operates knowing he can't really lose U.S. backing for whatever it does.
'Every president thinks they have some ability to constrain him and shape him, and they do," said Philip Gordon, who in the previous administration was national-security adviser to Vice President Kamala Harris. 'But in the end, Netanyahu is an experienced, wily actor, and knows he can get away with a lot."
The gaps between the two sides are also the result of a tougher security posture by Israel, especially in defending its borders, since the surprise Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023. Israeli interventions in Lebanon, Syria and Iran all reflect the calculation that Israel can't afford to wait for threats to materialize but must take offensive action to thwart them as they grow.
Netanyahu attributed the cease-fire ultimately reached in southern Syria to Israeli military action. 'This is a cease-fire that was reached through strength," he said. 'Not by making requests, not by begging—through strength. We are reaching peace through strength, quiet through strength, security through strength—on seven fronts."
Israel's post-Oct. 7 mindset isn't focused on diplomacy, said Ofer Guterman, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies. 'Nobody in the aftermath of Oct. 7 is thinking about diplomacy and how peace agreements can be a very good tool of prevention," he said.
The result is that Trump is finding it just as difficult as all of his predecessors to bring Israel completely in line with the U.S., said Steven Cook, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
'The problem for American presidents is that the Israelis are determined to fix their security problem, not just manage it," Cook said.
Write to Shayndi Raice at [e-mail] and Alexander Ward at [e-mail]