‘Severance,' ‘The Studio,' and ‘Adolescence' are poised for a big night: See Emmy predictions in all 25 Primetime categories
Based on Gold Derby's latest predictions, Severance, The Studio, and Adolescence are frontrunners in drama, comedy and limited, respectively. Should our odds prove correct, Apple TV+'s wins for Severance and The Studio would mark the first time a network or streamer has won drama and comedy in the same night since HBO's victories for Game of Thrones and Veep in 2016.
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Below are our latest predictions below for all 25 main categories for the Primetime Emmys, which will take place on Sunday, Sept. 14, spanning drama, comedy, limited, competition, and variety. (The other 98 races will be doled out across two Creative Arts ceremonies on Sept. 6 and Sept. 7.)
For drama, Severance is out front in a trio of categories: Best Drama Series, Best Drama Directing (Ben Stiller for "Cold Harbor"), and Best Drama Writing (Dan Erickson for "Cold Harbor"). Apple's sci-fi workplace series was a running-through-the-hallways hit with Emmy voters, receiving a whopping 27 nominations, more than any other show this year. As for the four acting races, Matlock is predicted to prevail with its sole nomination for Best Drama Actress (Kathy Bates), The Pitt is the odds leader for Best Drama Actor (Noah Wyle), and The White Lotus is the favorite in both Best Drama Supporting Actress (Carrie Coon) and Best Drama Supporting Actor (Walton Goggins).
BEST DRAMA SERIES
Drama Series
Contender
Odds
1.
Severance
65.6%
2.
The Pitt
22.2%
3.
The Last of Us
6.2%
4.
The White Lotus
3.7%
5.
Andor
1.6%
6.
Slow Horses
0.3%
7.
The Diplomat
0.3%
8.
Paradise
0.2%
BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Drama Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Kathy Bates
Matlock
66.9%
2.
Britt Lower
Severance
20.5%
3.
Bella Ramsey
The Last of Us
9.7%
4.
Keri Russell
The Diplomat
2.0%
5.
Sharon Horgan
Bad Sisters
0.8%
BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Drama Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Noah Wyle
The Pitt
71.4%
2.
Adam Scott
Severance
18.7%
3.
Pedro Pascal
The Last of Us
8.6%
4.
Sterling K. Brown
Paradise
0.7%
5.
Gary Oldman
Slow Horses
0.7%
BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Drama Supporting Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Carrie Coon
The White Lotus
65.2%
2.
Parker Posey
The White Lotus
16.7%
3.
Katherine LaNasa
The Pitt
9.1%
4.
Aimee Lou Wood
The White Lotus
4.5%
5.
Patricia Arquette
Severance
2.4%
6.
Natasha Rothwell
The White Lotus
1.2%
7.
Julianne Nicholson
Paradise
0.9%
BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Drama Supporting Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Walton Goggins
The White Lotus
51.5%
2.
Tramell Tillman
Severance
39.4%
3.
James Marsden
Paradise
2.3%
4.
John Turturro
Severance
2.1%
5.
Jason Isaacs
The White Lotus
2.0%
6.
Sam Rockwell
The White Lotus
1.4%
7.
Zach Cherry
Severance
1.2%
BEST DRAMA DIRECTING
Drama Directing
Contender
Odds
1.
Severance
Cold Harbor
73.2%
2.
The Pitt
6:00 P.M.
12.2%
3.
The White Lotus
Amor Fati
5.0%
4.
Severance
Chikhai Bardo
5.0%
5.
Andor
Who Are You
3.6%
6.
The Pitt
7:00 A.M.
0.8%
7.
Slow Horses
Hello Goodbye
0.3%
BEST DRAMA WRITING
Drama Writing
Contender
Odds
1.
Severance
Cold Harbor
76.5%
2.
The Pitt
2:00 P.M.
8.7%
3.
The White Lotus
Full Moon Party
6.4%
4.
Andor
Welcome to the Rebellion
5.3%
5.
The Pitt
7:00 A.M.
2.0%
6.
Slow Horses
Hello Goodbye
1.1%
Apple's The Studio is predicted to nab top prizes for Best Comedy Series, Best Comedy Actor (Seth Rogen), Best Comedy Supporting Actor (Ike Barinholtz), and Best Comedy Directing (Rogen and Evan Goldberg for "The Oner"). The half-hour program, which takes place behind the scenes at a fictional Hollywood movie studio, received a record number of Emmy nominations for a first-year comedy, at 23. Meanwhile, HBO Max's reigning comedy champion Hacks is the pick to win Best Comedy Actress (Jean Smart), Best Comedy Supporting Actress (Hannah Einbinder), and Best Comedy Writing (Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky for "A Slippery Slope").
BEST COMEDY SERIES
Comedy Series
Contender
Odds
1.
The Studio
69.9%
2.
Hacks
17.0%
3.
Abbott Elementary
3.6%
4.
The Bear
3.4%
5.
Only Murders in the Building
2.8%
6.
What We Do in the Shadows
1.5%
7.
Nobody Wants This
1.2%
8.
Shrinking
0.5%
BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
Comedy Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Jean Smart
Hacks
86.5%
2.
Ayo Edebiri
The Bear
4.3%
3.
Kristen Bell
Nobody Wants This
4.3%
4.
Quinta Brunson
Abbott Elementary
3.7%
5.
Uzo Aduba
The Residence
1.2%
BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Comedy Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Seth Rogen
The Studio
75.6%
2.
Martin Short
Only Murders in the Building
13.0%
3.
Jeremy Allen White
The Bear
7.9%
4.
Adam Brody
Nobody Wants This
2.6%
5.
Jason Segel
Shrinking
1.0%
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Comedy Supporting Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Hannah Einbinder
Hacks
67.8%
2.
Catherine O'Hara
The Studio
14.7%
3.
Liza Colon-Zayas
The Bear
6.3%
4.
Kathryn Hahn
The Studio
4.7%
5.
Janelle James
Abbott Elementary
4.5%
6.
Sheryl Lee Ralph
Abbott Elementary
1.2%
7.
Jessica Williams
Shrinking
1.0%
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Comedy Supporting Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Ike Barinholtz
The Studio
46.9%
2.
Harrison Ford
Shrinking
38.4%
3.
Ebon Moss-Bachrach
The Bear
7.9%
4.
Bowen Yang
Saturday Night Live
2.5%
5.
Jeff Hiller
Somebody Somewhere
1.6%
6.
Colman Domingo
The Four Seasons
1.4%
7.
Michael Urie
Shrinking
1.3%
BEST COMEDY DIRECTING
Comedy Directing
Contender
Odds
1.
The Studio
The Oner
85.7%
2.
The Bear
Napkins
8.0%
3.
Hacks
A Slippery Slope
3.8%
4.
Mid-Century Modern
Here's to You, Mrs. Schneiderman
1.3%
5.
The Rehearsal
Pilot's Code
1.2%
BEST COMEDY WRITING
Comedy Writing
Contender
Odds
1.
Hacks
A Slippery Slope
71.8%
2.
The Studio
The Promotion
16.9%
3.
Abbott Elementary
Back to School
4.8%
4.
What We Do in the Shadows
The Finale
2.6%
5.
The Rehearsal
Pilot's Code
2.1%
6.
Somebody Somewhere
AGG
1.9%
Netflix's psychological crime drama about the stabbing of a young girl is the overwhelming frontrunner to win five races at the Primetime Emmys: Best Limited Series, Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actress (Erin Doherty), Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actor (Owen Cooper), Best Movie/Limited Directing (Philip Barantini), and Best Movie/Limited Writing (Jack Thorne and Stephen Graham). With each episode filmed in a single take, the series prides itself on "saving lives," as it brings to the forefront much-needed conversations about online bullying and toxic masculinity. Meanwhile, the two lead acting races are expected to go to HBO's comic book adaptation of The Penguin: Best Movie/Limited Actress (Cristin Milioti) and Best Movie/Limited Actor (Colin Farrell).
BEST LIMITED SERIES
Limited Series
Contender
Odds
1.
Adolescence
87.9%
2.
The Penguin
7.2%
3.
Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
2.6%
4.
Black Mirror
1.8%
5.
Dying for Sex
0.6%
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED ACTRESS
Movie/Limited Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Cristin Milioti
The Penguin
69.8%
2.
Michelle Williams
Dying for Sex
22.6%
3.
Cate Blanchett
Disclaimer
3.9%
4.
Rashida Jones
Black Mirror
2.8%
5.
Meghann Fahy
Sirens
1.0%
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED ACTOR
Movie/Limited Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Colin Farrell
The Penguin
72.2%
2.
Stephen Graham
Adolescence
22.0%
3.
Cooper Koch
Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
3.2%
4.
Jake Gyllenhaal
Presumed Innocent
1.8%
5.
Brian Tyree Henry
Dope Thief
0.8%
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Movie/Limited Supporting Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Erin Doherty
Adolescence
80.2%
2.
Jenny Slate
Dying for Sex
8.8%
3.
Deirdre O'Connell
The Penguin
5.7%
4.
Chloe Sevigny
Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
3.5%
5.
Ruth Negga
Presumed Innocent
0.9%
6.
Christine Tremarco
Adolescence
0.8%
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTOR
Movie/Limited Supporting Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Owen Cooper
Adolescence
92.4%
2.
Javier Bardem
Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
4.7%
3.
Rob Delaney
Dying for Sex
1.4%
4.
Peter Sarsgaard
Presumed Innocent
0.8%
5.
Ashley Walters
Adolescence
0.3%
6.
Bill Camp
Presumed Innocent
0.3%
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED DIRECTING
Movie/Limited Directing
Contender
Odds
1.
Adolescence
91.8%
2.
The Penguin
Cent'anni
5.7%
3.
Sirens
1.0%
4.
Dying for Sex
0.6%
5.
The Penguin
A Great or Little Thing
0.6%
6.
Zero Day
0.4%
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED WRITING
Movie/Limited Writing
Contender
Odds
1.
Adolescence
89.6%
2.
The Penguin
5.3%
3.
Black Mirror
2.4%
4.
Dying for Sex
1.9%
5.
Say Nothing
0.8%
While most of the reality/variety trophies will be handed out a week prior at the Creative Arts, four of those contests will be announced at the Primetime Emmys. The Traitors is expected to repeat in Best Competition Program after last year's inaugural victory. Despite The Late Show with Stephen Colbert's shocking cancellation last month, it's still currently predicted to lose Best Variety Talk Series to The Daily Show, though it is gaining in the odds. Best Variety Scripted Series is a two-horse race between the forecasted frontrunner, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, and its runner-up, Saturday Night Live. And Best Variety Series Writing looks to be a winner yet again for Last Week Tonight for the 10th consecutive year.
BEST COMPETITION PROGRAM
Competition Program
Contender
Odds
1.
The Traitors
86.5%
2.
RuPaul's Drag Race
9.3%
3.
Survivor
1.7%
4.
Top Chef
1.7%
5.
The Amazing Race
0.8%
BEST VARIETY TALK SERIES
Variety Talk Series
Contender
Odds
1.
The Daily Show
65.4%
2.
Late Show with Stephen Colbert
30.3%
3.
Jimmy Kimmel Live
4.3%
BEST VARIETY SCRIPTED SERIES
Variety Scripted Series
Contender
Odds
1.
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
84.1%
2.
Saturday Night Live
15.9%
BEST VARIETY SERIES WRITING
Variety Series Writing
Contender
Odds
1.
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
85.0%
2.
The Daily Show
7.7%
3.
Saturday Night Live
7.3%
Gold Derby's Emmy predictions are based on the combined forecasts of a record 1,700 people (and counting), including experts we've polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Track the Emmy predictions by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and sound off in our TV forum.
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