Chances Of Tropical Development Near The Lesser Antilles This Week Remain Slim
The disorganized wave is located well over 500 miles east of Barbados, or roughly halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. It has winds of up to 40 mph in a small area of thunderstorms near the wave axis.
(MORE: What is a Tropical Wave?)
Conditions are marginally favorable for further development as this wave moves westward at 10 mph. For now, the threat of this disturbance becoming anything more than a rainmaker is low. This is not a threat to the United States.
It will be guided along the southern periphery of the Bermuda High on a westward path. The tropical wave will reach the Caribbean around Thursday.
By the time it nears the Caribbean, wind shear is expected to increase, making it more difficult to produce dangerous conditions and intensify.
Several inches of rain are likely on the islands that this disturbance passes over. An increase in swells and rip current potential are expected late week near the Lesser Antilles. These effects may be confined to a smaller area given the wave's smaller size.
Computer models are not currently expecting much sustained intensification near the islands, so wind may not be a major threat there. We'll keep an eye on it.
The next tropical storm will be named "Dexter."
(MORE: From Thunderstorms To Major Storm: The Life Cycle Of A Hurricane)
Nearing August: Tropical Wave Development Typically Increases
There is a notable increase in tropical activity in the southern Atlantic throughout late July and into early August.
This is because dusty, dry, Saharan air – one of the Atlantic's biggest limiting factors – typically disperses and allows tropical waves to produce tall thunderstorms. These thunderstorms lead to a healthier system and could eventually lead to the formation of a tropical depression or storm.
At the same time, water temperatures are often near their annual peak and wind shear is often decreasing.
Development chances also increase in the Gulf and western Atlantic as we approach August.
Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 9 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.
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