Tasmania set for a mostly anti-stadium crossbench — here's how the issue might unfold
While the final result of the election is nearly a fortnight away, it seems the parliament is headed for a roughly similar look and shape to the last one.
Both the Labor and Liberal parties support the stadium and will hold at least 23 of the lower house's 35 seats between them, so you may think that passage of legislation for the stadium is assured.
But if either party wants to hold government, it will need the support of an almost entirely anti-stadium crossbench.
It raises the question of whether those crossbenchers are willing to put their differences on the issue aside and give confidence and supply to one of the major parties, or die on a hill over the issue.
It also might coax one of the major parties to shift its position on the stadium, or change its approach to legislation for it, in an attempt to win the support needed to govern.
What do the crossbench numbers look like?
The election has delivered the most seats to the Liberal Party, but it will still be a hung parliament. ( ABC News: Maren Preuss )
The ABC has called 14 seats for the Liberals, nine for Labor, five Greens, and four independents, with three seats remaining in doubt.
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Carlo di Falco in in with a chance in Lyons.
Facing a hung parliament, the Liberals will need to secure support from four crossbenchers to form government (or three, if they can win the seventh seat in Bass).
The only pro-stadium member of that crossbench is David O'Byrne. Despite being a former Labor Leader, he's shown he will work with either side.
To find the next three, it's more difficult.
Independents Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland have been re-elected in their seats of Clark and Braddon.
Both are staunch opponents of the build, and recently voted no-confidence in Premier Jeremy Rockliff.
Franklin newcomer, independent Peter George, also opposes building a new stadium.
The Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party is a strong chance of claiming its first seat — but the party has opposed plans for a stadium since they were announced.
Who supports the stadium?
David O'Byrne ( ABC News: Kate Nickels )
The former Labor leader who was elected to parliament in 2024 as an independent supports the building of the Macquarie Point stadium.
Who is against the stadium?
Craig Garland. ( ABC News: Greg Szabo )
Returned independent MP Craig Garland does not support a new stadium but supports the formation of a Tasmanian team using existing stadiums. Ind: Kristie Johnston Kristie Johnston. ( ABC News: Kate Nickels )
Returned independent MP Kristie Johnston stands against the building of a new stadium but supports the formation of a Tasmanian team using existing stadiums. Ind: Peter George Peter George. ( ABC News: Meg Whitfield )
The new independent MP stands against the building of a new stadium but supports the formation of a Tasmanian team. SFF: Carlo di Falco Carlo Di Falco. ( ABC News: Maren Preuss )
The Shooters Fishers & Farmers Tas candidate is likely to snag a seat in Lyons, but his election is not yet certain.
The party has been against a new Hobart stadium since the project was announced. Grn: Rosalie Woodruff Rosalie Woodruff. ( ABC News: Jake Grant )
Greens leader and MP for Franklin.
The Greens Party supports a Tasmanian AFL team but does not support building a new stadium. Grn: Cecily Rosol Cecily Rosol. ( ABC News: Luke Bowden )
Greens MP for Bass.
The Greens Party supports a Tasmanian AFL team but does not support building a new stadium. Grn: Vica Bayley Vica Bayley. ( ABC News: Ashleigh Barraclough )
Greens MP for Clark.
The Greens Party supports a Tasmanian AFL team but does not support building a new stadium. Grn: Helen Burnet Helen Burnet. ( ABC News: Luke Bowden )
Greens MP for Clark.
The Greens Party supports a Tasmanian AFL team but does not support building a new stadium. Grn: Tabatha Badger Tabatha Badger. ( ABC News: Ashleigh Barraclough )
Greens MP for Lyons.
The Greens Party supports a Tasmanian AFL team but does not support building a new stadium.
Labor's path to government is far more complicated — and still reliant on anti-stadium support.
If it can hold onto its second seat in Franklin and then join forces with Greens, it would need to find three more supporters from the same pool of crossbenchers.
But in that case, there would be only 11 stadium supporters in an 18-strong governing coalition.
It means the path forward is still unclear.
What options are available to progress the stadium?
Enough crossbench MPs may simply decide to give the Liberals or Labor supply and confidence — that is, allow them to pass budget bills and not support no-confidence motions — despite their stadium stance.
They could then deal with the stadium issue separately, by voting against it when the legislation comes up.
But they would be powerless to stop the Liberals and Labor teaming up to help the stadium bill sail through the lower house.
There are tight timelines for building the Macquarie Point stadium. ( Supplied: MPDC )
Another option might help a Liberal or Labor government keep the crossbench a little more onside.
In the last parliament, the Liberals tabled special legislation that would have fast-tracked approvals for the stadium project, much to the dismay of many on the crossbench.
Whoever forms government could decide to backtrack on that and keep the stadium in the more arduous Project of State Significance (POSS) pathway laid out by the Tasmanian Planning Commission.
That POSS process will be completed by September, which might not be too much longer than the wait for the new parliament to reconvene.
If a government does go back to the POSS process, then the final determination by the Tasmanian Planning Commission — and whatever conditions are attached — would still need to be approved by both houses of parliament in order to build the stadium.
What have the party leaders said?
Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff told media on Sunday he would not be abandoning his plans for the stadium.
He referenced that two thirds of the vote was heading towards the stadium-backing major parties, and said it showed a majority had voted "yes stadium, yes team".
Labor leader Dean Winter said the party would not be "horse trading on policy".
He said his party would not switch to dumping the stadium.
"We haven't changed our position on the stadium, and we won't be offering that as part of any negotiations," he said.
Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff said there had been a big anti-stadium vote
"We've got a desperate situation with the budget, and it's either cutting into essential services or spending money on a stadium. It's pretty clear that people want essential services," Dr Woodruff said.
She said the Greens would be working in the next parliament to stop the stadium.
However, she did not rule out backing a major party to form government, without them compromising on the stadium.
What have the Tasmania Devils said?
The state's AFL club was among the loudest voices when the no-confidence motion was being debated in June, warning that the political instability was a "serious risk" for the future of the club.
However, it stayed relatively quiet during the election campaign itself.
This morning, the club broke its silence, with the club's Kath McCann saying the Devils were staying focused on building, with no time to lose.
Tasmania Football Club executive director Kath McCann says the club will work with whichever party forms government. ( ABC Northern Tasmania: Evan Wallace )
"Tasmania Football Club stands ready to work with the incoming Tasmanian government and elected members once the election outcomes are resolved," she said.
"We are focused on entering the AFL and AFLW by 2028, in order to do that we have several time frames that must be met. We are very eager to work with the government to realise these."
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