What Ukraine's drone attack on Russia means for peace talks

Indian Express

2 days ago

How can the Ukrainian attack on Russian air assets affect the negotiations? What will Russia be looking for as it investigates the drone strikes? What does the attack mean for President Putin? Alind Chauhan put these questions to one of India's foremost experts on Russia.
Ukraine's massive drone attack on Russia on Sunday came a day before the second round of peace talks between the two sides in Istanbul. The talks ended within an hour — the two sides agreed to swap thousands of dead and wounded soldiers, but there was no progress towards ending the war. The first round of talks in mid-May had also ended without a consensus on a ceasefire agreement.
This was the first time that such large numbers of Ukrainian drones attacked Russian airfields. At least five of them were attacked, and some of them are located very deep inside Russian territory, including in the Far East.
If the attacked sites have facilities that contain nuclear-related equipment such as strategic bombers and nuclear weapons, then the Russians will take a serious view.
So far in the war, the Ukrainians have not needed to target Russia's nuclear weapons facilities as the Russians will not use nuclear weapons as long as the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) does not get involved.
That's why the Russians would be concerned if their nuclear facilities were targeted. They would be investigating if the attack was just an adventure by Ukraine — an attempt by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to get President Donald Trump on his side somehow and get him involved in the war — or if someone in NATO put the Ukrainians to it, trying to achieve some greater goals.
The Russians would be investigating the second angle because drones typically do not fly by themselves and need navigation, which Ukraine cannot do without the help of United States satellites.
No. Over the past month, both sides have been attacking each other quite heavily with drones. Ukrainian drones attempted to attack Moscow during Russia's Victory Day parade on May 9. More than 20 leaders from various countries had gone to attend the parade.
It was the depth at which the Ukrainians hit Russia which was unexpected. They attacked airfields in the Irkutsk region, which is deep in Siberia, and far from where the military action has been taking place. The method of launching the drones was also unusual. The Ukrainians launched drones from trucks that are used to haul loads over long distances.
It is unusual for the Russians to realise that they can be hit so deep. But they are too far gone in the war against Ukraine. And the support for Putin is way too solid for this attack to make any significant difference.
So from a military and a strategic perspective, the Russians may be worried. However, from a political perspective, Putin will not be concerned too much.
Currently, both countries are looking at some technicalities as they have not been able to square the fundamental disagreement.
The Ukrainians are saying that before any negotiations start, the Russians should agree to a month-long ceasefire. The West, except the US, has supported this demand.
The Russians are saying that they are not opposed to a ceasefire, provided there is a roadmap to the ultimate resolution. That's because the Russians have got initiative on the ground. Although they are advancing slowly, they are advancing — and the Ukrainians are just trying to hold on to territory. The Ukrainians are also exhausted and running out of material for the war. The Russians do not want to give up this advantage and allow the Ukrainians a whole month to regroup and replenish their stocks.
Also, the Russians have said there are certain reasons why the war began — such as the question of Ukraine's neutrality and the protection of the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine. Unless there is a possibility of an agreement on these issues, the Russians say, there is no point in a ceasefire. The Russians also do not want to give up territory that they have captured.
That's why the Russians had earlier suggested that the two sides come up with plans or outlines of how they visualise peace, and meet on June 2 to compare notes.
The negotiations are still at a very preliminary stage and involve second-level officials. Both Russia and Ukraine are under pressure from the US which wants to see a peace deal soon. However, both sides have red lines on what they want to talk about.
The Russian delegation is led by Vladimir Medinsky, a former Cultural Minister, and includes some officials from the security services and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Ukrainian delegation is led by the country's Defence Minister Rustem Umerov.
However, these delegations do not have the authority to make the final decision. They are just trying to narrow down the differences and come to a document that is acceptable to both sides, which will be presented to Putin and Zelenskyy for a decision.
Nandan Unnikrishnan is Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation.